Heavy Snowfall Outlook 21/06/2006 - till....

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 18/06/2006 21:11

As this has already been mentioned in a couple of other threads I thought I might aswell make a seperate thread to seperate the two.

This outbreak looks to run from wednesday evening right thru till Saturday/Sunday. Models currently throwing up 90mm of rain for ChCh, snow about the plains and Heavy in the foothills over thursday/friday and very strong southerlies. Gale force on Bp.

Amounts about the foothills look to be very high,and farmers in the foothills should be taking extra measures over these dates as they could be getting snowfalls in excessive of 1.5m (These amounts do at the moment look very high, almost to high but if the next model run throws up the same we could be looking at a much bigger snow than the 12/06/06)

If this does pull off we may have one of the worst snow events in decades!! But as I said the closer we get and if the models are still in agreement, my confidence grows on such an event.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sun 18/06/2006 21:19

In a word, eek....

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sun 18/06/2006 21:27

03Stormchaser wrote:As this has already been mentioned in a couple of other threads I thought I might aswell make a seperate thread to seperate the two.

This outbreak looks to run from wednesday evening right thru till Saturday/Sunday. Models currently throwing up 90mm of rain for ChCh, snow about the plains and Heavy in the foothills over thursday/friday and very strong southerlies. Gale force on Bp.

Amounts about the foothills look to be very high,and farmers in the foothills should be taking extra measures over these dates as they could be getting snowfalls in excessive of 1.5m (These amounts do at the moment look very high, almost to high but if the next model run throws up the same we could be looking at a much bigger snow than the 12/06/06)

If this does pull off we may have one of the worst snow events in decades!! But as I said the closer we get and if the models are still in agreement, my confidence grows on such an event.

Not good for those that are still having major problems.

On a lighter note my offer is in to take as much off your hands as possible

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 18/06/2006 21:46

GFS has been calling for this for a few days now, and now the ECMWF is doing a similar thing - its looking more likely, but the numbers are kinda hard to believe. Looks like the centre of the country will be worst hit.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 18/06/2006 22:00

TonyT wrote:GFS has been calling for this for a few days now, and now the ECMWF is doing a similar thing - its looking more likely, but the numbers are kinda hard to believe. Looks like the centre of the country will be worst hit.

It's those damn saucer people again.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/06/2006 22:05

I'm going with this from Ben's thread, at the moment:
think that there is NOT going to be anymore severe weather as surface barometer pressures are on the rise.
...but in saying that, stationary anticyclone pressures will rise to the west of us which will enhance cold, below temperatures for the time of year, for the rest of the coming week and possibly into next week as well
It will be more finer than wet outbreaks.

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 18/06/2006 22:12

GFS has been calling for this for a few days now, and now the ECMWF is doing a similar thing - its looking more likely, but the numbers are kinda hard to believe. Looks like the centre of the country will be worst hit.

GASP just predicts a cold south to southwest flow over NZ, but UNISYS has the low further to the north - more snow in central North Island. Worst case scenario: a snowstorm similar to the Canterbury one - imagine a thick white blanket not just around Ruapehu, but down to the shores of Lake Taupo.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/06/2006 22:50

tich wrote:
GFS has been calling for this for a few days now, and now the ECMWF is doing a similar thing - its looking more likely, but the numbers are kinda hard to believe. Looks like the centre of the country will be worst hit.
GASP just predicts a cold south to southwest flow over NZ, but UNISYS has the low further to the north - more snow in central North Island. Worst case scenario: a snowstorm similar to the Canterbury one - imagine a thick white blanket not just around Ruapehu, but down to the shores of Lake Taupo.

On what I said earlier, ECMWF maintain a stationary low out to the east of the North Island.

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 18/06/2006 23:11

this is what metservice has to say on this so far

Valid: Tue 20 June to Fri 23 June
Issued: Sun 18 June 2006 at 01:39 pm

MetService expects a ridge to be crossing New Zealand on Tuesday.

Then on Wednesday, another cold southerly outbreak should spread over the country. Snow is likely to low levels, with a low risk that amounts will reach warning criteria in Otago, Canterbury and the Kaikouras, also the eastern North Island from the Tararuas to the Gisborne ranges, and the central North Island plateau. In the North Island areas, snow is likely to continue into Thursday.

On Friday, there is a possibility that a low will deepen near East Cape and bring heavy rain to eastern places from Gisborne to Wairarapa. However, confidence at this range is very low.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 18/06/2006 23:15

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

a very stomy week up ahead by the low gfs put the centre of the low over the centre of the NI and have it moving slowly away

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 19/06/2006 07:19

Latest model run showing some what less rain but stil about 60mm friday night till Saturday night. 10mm from wednesday evening. Southerlies will still be very strong and temps kept very low.

Heavy snow for the alps and foothills still looks on the cards but now thursday not wednesday.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 19/06/2006 08:21

I am flying to Auckland on Friday - if there's much prospect of an unusually vicious southerly (ie driving rain and powerful winds) that could close Wgton Airport for a while (not a common occurrence) I would be interested to hear opinions on likelihood. Since I have to get an international flight on Friday evening it might be necessary to make plans for alternative transport to Auckland ...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 19/06/2006 08:22

Still too early for details, but I fear somewhere from between North Canty to Gisborne is going to be in the firing line for heavy snow. And I dont think Cook Strait will be usable from Thursday to Saturday.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 19/06/2006 11:04

RWood wrote:I am flying to Auckland on Friday - if there's much prospect of an unusually vicious southerly (ie driving rain and powerful winds) that could close Wgton Airport for a while (not a common occurrence) I would be interested to hear opinions on likelihood. Since I have to get an international flight on Friday evening it might be necessary to make plans for alternative transport to Auckland ...

I'd be thinking about alternatives if I were you, just in case.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 19/06/2006 11:15

Thanks - will be looking at it.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 19/06/2006 12:31

Youre lucky getting out of this country at this time of the year

RWood wrote:Thanks - will be looking at it.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 19/06/2006 12:32

Definitly as Tony said be looking for alternatives, Wellington could well be right in the firing line for very heavy rain and gale force winds. The Ferries wont be operating aswell in the cook strait looks like its going to be very rough.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Mon 19/06/2006 12:32

Michael wrote:Youre lucky getting out of this country at this time of the year
RWood wrote:Thanks - will be looking at it.

Ha, I'm travelling from Dunedin the Chch Thursday, Friday this week... out of the pan, into the fire

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 19/06/2006 12:33

Fujita Phil wrote:Ha, I'm travelling from Dunedin the Chch Thursday, Friday this week... out of the pan, into the fire

Via the Mackenzie perhaps? The scenic route...

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Mon 19/06/2006 12:35

Mind you, it's a blimin' coolish pan

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 19/06/2006 12:59

If I was in ChCh right now I'd be predicting snow tonight with the weather I just walked through. Strong sou'easter, rain and a dramtic to the bone windchill. But I'm in Auckland not ChCh so I won't say it

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 19/06/2006 14:49

Valid: Tue 20 June to Fri 23 June
Issued: Sun 18 June 2006 at 01:39 pm

MetService expects a ridge to be crossing New Zealand on Tuesday.

Then on Wednesday, another cold southerly outbreak should spread over the country. Snow is likely to low levels, with a low risk that amounts will reach warning criteria in Otago, Canterbury and the Kaikouras, also the eastern North Island from the Tararuas to the Gisborne ranges, and the central North Island plateau. In the North Island areas, snow is likely to continue into Thursday.

On Friday, there is a possibility that a low will deepen near East Cape and bring heavy rain to eastern places from Gisborne to Wairarapa. However, confidence at this range is very low.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 19/06/2006 14:54

Met service very very slow in updating severe weather outlook lately. Sitting on the fence perhaps?

Any reports from the Cntnral / Eastern North Island would be interesting this afternoon

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 19/06/2006 15:07

I see Tony has changed the forecast for WED/THUR/FRI this week:

Fine periods at first on Wednesday with some high cloud, a change to fresh southwesterlies in the evening with showers and snow lowering to low levels at night.

Rain on Thursday and Friday with strong southerlies and snow to low levels.

Rain on Saturday with snow to 400m, strong southerlies ease later with rain and snow clearing at night.

Sunny periods increase during the day on Sunday with fresh southwesterlies dying out in the evening.

Fine and sunny on Monday through to Wednesday with light winds.

Based off of recent model runs, Tony?

(and gut feel and experience as well, I take it

)

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 19/06/2006 15:11

gllitz wrote:I see Tony has changed the forecast for WED/THUR/FRI this week:

Fine periods at first on Wednesday with some high cloud, a change to fresh southwesterlies in the evening with showers and snow lowering to low levels at night.

Rain on Thursday and Friday with strong southerlies and snow to low levels.

Rain on Saturday with snow to 400m, strong southerlies ease later with rain and snow clearing at night.

Sunny periods increase during the day on Sunday with fresh southwesterlies dying out in the evening.

Fine and sunny on Monday through to Wednesday with light winds.

Based off of recent model runs, Tony? (and gut feel and experience as well, I take it )

Thats actually Aaron

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