Prediction sweep for NZ in Jan + Feb?

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Prediction sweep for NZ in Jan + Feb?

Unread post by RWood »

Somewhat along the lines of a monthly contest they run in the UKWW forum, I'd like to suggest a prediction contest for the "5 main centres" as they are reported in NIWA's monthly online summaries - say for both January and February , as December is already more than half over.

For each of Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, make a prediction outcome for mean temp., rainfall and sunshine, selecting from the following groupings:

Temperature: Well above average (+1.5C or more)
Above average (+0.5C to +1.4C)
Average (+0.4C to -0.4C)
Below average (-0.5C to -1.4C)
Well below average (-1.5C or lower)

Rainfall: Well above average (300% or more of normal)
Above average (150% - 299% of normal)
Average (76% - 149% of normal)
Below average (26% - 75% of normal)
Well below average (25% or less of normal)

Sunshine: Well above average (125% or more of normal)
Above average (110% - 124% of normal)
Average (91% - 109% of normal)
Below average (76% - 90% of normal)
Well below average (75% or less of normal)

Scoring: to reward bold and accurate guesses, this could work well:

For each type, 3 for correct "extreme" (well above or well below) pick;

2 for each correct "above" or "below" pick;
1 for each correct "average" pick;
0 for incorrect picks.

Current and recent "form" can be found in the monthly NIWA summaries.

Any interest in this? I'm not sure what the easiest way to record entries would be. Or does the rest of the NZ team's cricket season, or the drying of paint, sound interesting by comparison? ;)

Edit: the idea is to pick answers for each month separately - TonyT read my poorly-worded description the "other way" as a combined period.
Last edited by RWood on Mon 18/12/2006 18:14, edited 1 time in total.
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

That's a good point - I didn't make myself properly clear - I meant for "each of January and February separately", rather than "+" for a combined period.

Sorry! - if this seems OK, feel free to reguess!
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 3007
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury

Unread post by TonyT »

ok, I'll start again. :)
sw_windbow
Posts: 241
Joined: Tue 13/06/2006 15:21
Location: Dunedin

Unread post by sw_windbow »

January:

Auckland:
Temp... below average
Rainfall... above average
Sunshine... below average

Hamilton:
Temp... below average
Rainfall... above average
Sunshine below average

Wellington:
Temp... average
Rainfall... below average
Sunshine... well above average

Christchurch:
Temp... average
Rainfall... well above average
Sunshine... average

Dunedin:
Temp... below average
Rainfall... well above average
Sunshine... well below average
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

PS - I suggest we close off picking for both months by December 31, so that there's not too much "guidance" available for the later part.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland

Unread post by NZstorm »

Auckland:
Temp... below average
Rainfall... above average
Sunshine... below average
For AK to get above average rainfall in January/February we will need to see lows come in from north. The west/southwesterlies tend to be stable and dry in January/February.

Hence with an El Nino my forecast for Auckland in January and February is.........

Temp, Below average
Rainfall, Below average
Sunshine, Above average.
Last edited by NZstorm on Tue 19/12/2006 19:30, edited 1 time in total.
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

Do you want to pick both months?
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

My picks:

January

AK: T average, R below, S average
HN: T average, R below, S average
WN: T average, R well below, S above
CH: T average, R well below, S above
DN: T below, R average, S average

February:

AK: T above, R average, S above
HN: T above, R below, S above
WN: T above, R well below, S above
CH: T above, R below, S above
DN: T average, R below, S above
Last edited by RWood on Wed 20/12/2006 01:15, edited 1 time in total.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5492
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch

Unread post by Razor »

My picks:

January

AK: T below, R average, S below
WN: T below, R below, S average
CH: T well above, R well below, S above
DN: T above, R below, S above

February:

AK: T average R above average, S below
WN: T average, R average, S average
CH: T above, R below, S above
DN: T average, R below, S above
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 3007
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury

Unread post by TonyT »

Jan
AK T normal R below S above
HN T above R below S above
WN T above R below S well above
CH T above R well below S well above
DN T normal R below S above

Feb
AK T normal R normal S normal
HN T above R below S above
WN T above R below S above
CH T above R below S above
DNT normal R normal S above
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"

Unread post by Michael »

what about the wind?
jrj
Posts: 462
Joined: Tue 18/03/2003 18:00
Location: Havelock North, New Zealand

Unread post by jrj »

Just keep taking the tablets :!:
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

Michael wrote:what about the wind?
There's no conveniently defined reported values to split into simple categories. 3 parameters is hard enough!!
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4443
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city

Unread post by Willoughby »

RWood you forgot Hamilton!! :o ;) :lol:

January
AK: T - above, R - average, S - above
HN: T - above, R - below, S - average
WN: T - average, R - below, S - above
CH: T - below, R - above, S - average
DN: T - above, R - below, S - well above

February
AK: T - average, R - below, S - above
HN: T - average, R - below, S - above
WN: T - average, R - below, S - average
CH: T - above, R - average, S - average
DN: T - average, R - well below, S - above
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

Foggy Hamilton wrote:RWood you forgot Hamilton!! :o ;) :lol:
OOps! - fixed. :oops: :mrgreen:
spwill
Posts: 10200
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland

Unread post by spwill »

Michael wrote,
what about the wind?
Galeforce and SouthWest.


Jan
AK T normal R below S above
HN T above R below S above
WN T above R below S above
CH T above R below S above
DN T normal R below S above

Feb
AK T above R normal S above
HN T above R normal S above
WN T normal R below S above
CH T above R below S above
DN T normal R above S normal
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

So far, the picks for January aren't looking great! (from a quick scan)
squid
Posts: 1304
Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
Location: Caboolture,QLD

Unread post by squid »

as for wind gale SW every day just for you michael ;)
check out our online shop

www.delicatedelights.com.au
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"

Unread post by Michael »

Told you,the NE was only 3 or 4 days and last weeks easterly was an utter joke and going by the last lousy summers February will probably be similar like 2004
squid wrote:as for wind gale SW every day just for you michael ;)
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

In a few days we'll be able to confirm that the January picks weren't too good, well at least certainly not in the case of sunshine - R & T don't look all that flash either. It has been a cloudy month, not really rescued by improved readings in the last few days. Will try to knock up a spreadsheet calculator to make checking easier.

Edit: This a spreadsheet with a hypothetical result for one picker. All I have to do when the NIWA report is up is to correctly translate the numbers into the 2-letter categories shown and enter them in the appropriate places. I'll update it with the picks, leaving only the "actuals" to be filled in.

Edit-2: Picks shown with hypothetical January result - hope the scores turn out better than this! Let me know if you spot any mistakes.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

Results are enclosed. Pretty abysmal! Nobody got more than 5 points of a possible 25!

The values can be verified in the NIWA report posted elsewhere, but note that the descriptions they use for the categories are not the same as ours: ours match the ones they use in their maps in the monthly Climate Digest.

Summarised result:

Possible points 25

RWood 5
Spwill 5
Razor 5
sw_windbow 4
TonyT 3
Foggy H. 3

[NZStorm picked only for AK and scored 0]

Perhaps, since this is so damned difficult, we could add in March picks and allow guesses to be posted till the end of February?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
spwill
Posts: 10200
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland

Unread post by spwill »

Thanks RWood.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 3007
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury

Unread post by TonyT »

:oops:
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

Perhaps the scoring scheme is a bit harsh ... the result is the same for being one category out as for 4 categories out...I'm open to suggestions for improvements! :-k

It strikes me that on the UKWW site (eg), when they look at a month's patterns, they can usually find something reasonably comparable in the past record - with their very long records of temperature, especially. Here in NZ where the history is shorter, it seems to be hard to find even rough matches in many cases.
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington

Unread post by RWood »

I looked at a scoring scheme that's not so harsh - still have max. scores of 3,2 and 1 as before, with one point less per category "separated" from the correct one. This leads to a minimum of -1 in each case:


Well above -1 1 -1 3 -1
Above 0 2 0 2 0
Average 1 1 1 1 1
Below 0 0 2 0 2
Well below -1 -1 1 -1 3


When I redid the January numbers this led to the highest and lowest posssible scores for a pick being 25 and -15 [the latter value would always be -15]. Scaling this up to a range from 0 to 40, the scores for the pickers ranged only from 20 to 25, or if you like 50% to 62.5% (rough check only).

I could apply this scheme to the Feb. picks, seems a bit fairer as it gives more credit for being closer, instead of none at all for being incorrect.