TC Ivy

Manukau heads obs · Tue 24/02/2004 08:38

does it have NZ in its sights for the sometime late weekend /early next week???
hope so (to get some exciting weather, but not to do more damage)

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 24/02/2004 09:25

Looks like it, Northland may get the bulk of it on Saturday.
The low should centralise lower-north island (again)

MetService forecast for Auckland on Friday: Fine.
WeatherOnline forecast for Friday: Heavy rain.

I wonder which one will be right???

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 24/02/2004 09:34

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Looks like it, Northland may get the bulk of it on Saturday.
The low should centralise lower-north island (again)

Just so long as it stays nice and fine down here...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 24/02/2004 10:44

That low coming down from the North this weekend looks like an Insurance Companies worst nightmare. It's center will be west of Auckland which means the city should catch any bad weather on offer providing the Lows track is not too far to the west.

Gary, dose nice and fine down there mean hard Frosts yet.

CbFan · Unread post by **CbFan** » Tue 24/02/2004 16:02

It's been too long ! I'll have to get the deckchairs and the wet-weather gear out ready for it.

- Just hope the fallout stays north of Taupo, don't think the southerners would be impressed with more rain at this stage.

Ahh well, off to do the rain dance in the paddock....

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 24/02/2004 17:53

Ahh...... the rain dance Pete, it has been to long! Remember the howling at the moon thing

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Tue 24/02/2004 19:03

CbFan wrote:don't think the southerners would be impressed with more rain at this stage

Southerners??? I would hope you aren't grouping everyone below you as Southerners

Manukau heads obs · Tue 24/02/2004 20:36

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 24/02/2004 23:09

Just when it looks like a change to a more settled weather pattern, another storm system comes along.

Let's hope the unpredictable nature of this expected low results in it moving further to the west (with the high to the east maintaining some form of blocking effect), and sparing Canterbury a wet easterly on Sunday.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 24/02/2004 23:16

tich wrote:Just when it looks like a change to a more settled weather pattern, another storm system comes along. Let's hope the unpredictable nature of this expected low results in it moving further to the west (with the high to the east maintaining some form of blocking effect), and sparing Canterbury a wet easterly on Sunday.

I hope so as we are morris dancing at Barrhill on Sunday.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 25/02/2004 07:37

Ivy is becoming better organised now on sat. pics.

Forecast is for gradual intensification over next 48hrs so both Vanuatu and New Caledonia could be in for a hammering.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 25/02/2004 07:50

You like inclement weather down there it brings storms and Thunder

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
tich wrote:Let's hope the unpredictable nature of this expected low results in it moving further to the west (with the high to the east maintaining some form of blocking effect), and sparing Canterbury a wet easterly on Sunday.
I hope so as we are morris dancing at Barrhill on Sunday.

JohnGaul
NZTS

CbFan · Unread post by **CbFan** » Wed 25/02/2004 09:50

Fujita Phil wrote: Southerners??? I would hope you aren't grouping everyone below you as Southerners

I think there's only about 18 people north of here anyway. Always makes me chuckle when the entire population of Auckland rushes up every summer / Long Weekend to try and squeeze into the thinnest piece of NZ.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 25/02/2004 10:17

CbFan wrote:I think there's only about 18 people north of here anyway. Always makes me chuckle when the entire population of Auckland rushes up every summer / Long Weekend to try and squeeze into the thinnest piece of NZ.

Quite an achievement getting 350,000 16' wide 4x4s to fit in there!

CbFan · Unread post by **CbFan** » Wed 25/02/2004 12:33

That's funny because it's true, but you forgot the jetskis

Funnier still was the bloke I watched hose his shiney 4WD then go for a drive down a dusty metalled road, just to make it dirty!

Must be something to do with all that rain and the SW'ers they get

I see Metservice have tentatively announced the expected arrival of Ivy in NZ now.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 25/02/2004 13:01

The reason theres a mass exodus of Aucklanders each long weekend is due to the crap weather we get in Auckland

Gary Roberts wrote:
CbFan wrote:I think there's only about 18 people north of here anyway. Always makes me chuckle when the entire population of Auckland rushes up every summer / Long Weekend to try and squeeze into the thinnest piece of NZ.
Quite an achievement getting 350,000 16' wide 4x4s to fit in there!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 25/02/2004 14:29

Coastal Vanuatu is not a good place to be this afternoon with Ivy crossing the area later today with average wind speeds near it's center of 65 knots. The deep low should bring strong winds and heavy rain into our area at the weekend. It will be nice to have some warm Tropical weather if only for a couple of days . Very cold today.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Wed 25/02/2004 15:29

Its funny sometimes when your friends (who dont have an interest in weather) start to get all excited because their surfing buddies are looking forward to the weekend because of the likely swells that will accompany TC Ivy!!!

Its amazing how many people are 'indirectly' interested in the weather!

Me, I'm just happy to see a big Cb with well developed anvils and the odd audible 'crack'!!!

Different strokes eh

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 25/02/2004 20:04

Forecast for Vanuatu overnight is 'very destructive hurricane force winds'.

At 6pm The town of Lamap(Malakula) reports 34kts from the east.
Port Vila E 14kts, Baro. 1000hpa.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Wed 25/02/2004 20:12

The virtual bouys are looking interesting for the weekend. A windsurfing workmate lives on this site: http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~bghd/

About 40 knots out of the NE?

G

Manukau heads obs · Wed 25/02/2004 20:29

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~bghd/wind_graph.htm

the software that does that is by yours truly

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 25/02/2004 20:41

Average wind speed near Ivy's center is now about 75 knots.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 25/02/2004 22:29

ECMWF has Ivy over Auckland on Sat.
Now that should give you some good SW gales, Michael

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 26/02/2004 07:33

Last report from lamap (0000hr) had ESE 111km/hr which is about 58knots.

Fiji Met advisory say the rugged terrain of Vanuatu has hindered Ivy's development, hence no visible eye yet.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 26/02/2004 08:27

good stuff
the radio reported that it had 80kmh winds at the center
when will the media get their units correct?
when hell freezes over?