Why do weather people think tail of Ivy will hit in weekend?

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Fri 27/02/2004 07:50

It is obvious that there are two distinct weather systems about to be launched on us. Ivy was traveling at 9-10 knots south and is still in Vanuatu which is 1200 miles away. Thats five days according to my calcs?? Or am I wrong.
Weather is beginning to pack up here, light drizzle, winds up to 30 knots judging cloud speed and a general feeling of dampness. Hope its a good one.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 27/02/2004 08:06

We hardly ever get a TC here it either asorbs/shears or it gets frontal sectors and is extra tropical and captured by the westerlies

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 27/02/2004 09:22

Cyclone movement is usually very slow and erratic until they come out of the Tropics when they can move very quickly and they tend to move South East. The big slow moving High out to the East of NZ should steer Ivy South- SouthEast and bring it down just to the East of the North Ialand but we will have to wait and see.

Looks like a lot of rain in the Tasman to cross later today and tomorrow.

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Fri 27/02/2004 14:40

yes - raining in northland right now, Northerly quarter wind gusts up to 40knots at a guess - more on the coast no doubt, all from the front preceding Ivy, still cant see how any tail end of cyclone can reach us before Wednesday next week??

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 19:54

its already moving fast, projected to be moving at 20 knots eventualy
thats 200 nautical miles is only 10 hours!