Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
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- Willoughby
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Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Incoming sub-tropic low/out going high set to direct a wet northeast to east flow over the North Island. Looks like high SFC temps around 21C could generate some thunderstorms during the odd day too.
Up to 21.7C here in the city today, , small Cu about.. very strange and warm for this time of year indeed.
Up to 21.7C here in the city today, , small Cu about.. very strange and warm for this time of year indeed.
- NZstorm
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Dewpoints certainly look like they will go up.
- David
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Absolutely pouring down right now
Puddles everywhere, 5mm in 10mins
Puddles everywhere, 5mm in 10mins
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
6mm overnight here in Grey Lynn,
I see GFS is suggesting some instability with the remains of the western front approaching, certainly good dew points over 15°C here now! Keeps changing it's mind about the rest of the week though
I see GFS is suggesting some instability with the remains of the western front approaching, certainly good dew points over 15°C here now! Keeps changing it's mind about the rest of the week though
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Moderate risk of thunderstorms in Waikato this afternoon according to metservice.
- NZstorm
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Looks to be some colder upper air on the way for mid to late week with that low. Heres hoping.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
I hope so too, as far as I can recall there hasn't been a decent upper pool of cold air and instability recently, much was in July but little in August.NZstorm wrote:Looks to be some colder upper air on the way for mid to late week with that low. Heres hoping.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
thought i saw a weak funnel cloud out of the cloud base just south of the airport this sarvo......there was a shallow layer of uninstability and lots of moisture and we got to 20oC here behind that shower line...so....
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Did see some great looking TCu through occasional breaks in cloud so there was some good strong convection going on in places with that instability
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Dewpoints 13C here with some Mist and Fog.
Our mid week Low looks like it might take a more northerly track.
Our mid week Low looks like it might take a more northerly track.
- NZstorm
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
That low mid week will be unstable given a moderately cool upper air and good moisture advection into it. Looks like top of Northland will get globbered with possible heavy convective falls.
- TonyT
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Not sure if "globbered" was a typo or not, but I must say I like it! I might use that in a forecast one day - "isolated globerry falls" has a Hickey-esque sound to it!NZstorm wrote:That low mid week will be unstable given a moderately cool upper air and good moisture advection into it. Looks like top of Northland will get globbered with possible heavy convective falls.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Weatherzone models predict a cold upper change on the 23rd, with 500mb temps forecast at <-28C at the moment. Could be good to have an unstable atmosphere after the rainfalls expected later this week which should supply some surface moisture.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
19C felt warm here today with the 14C dewpoints . I see our dewpoints have dropped now.
The Low out to the NW looks active with a lot of Thunderstorm activity, shame it will be moving north of Auckland.
The Low out to the NW looks active with a lot of Thunderstorm activity, shame it will be moving north of Auckland.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Yes, quite a thundery looking system out there in the north Tassie but it is moving in the wrong direction!
- David
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Looks like this system is going to be another non-event for Auckland, we were originally expected to have rain with heavy falls and now only a couple of showers?
Typical!
Some lightning showing up on the Ak storm tracker to the NW of the far north at the moment
Typical!
Some lightning showing up on the Ak storm tracker to the NW of the far north at the moment
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Looks like a feisty rain band approaching Northland. The way it is currently moving, by looking at the radar loop one could deduce that the band would affect Auckland? Not forecast to so maybe it will swerve away or weaken?
edit 5.15
I see some storm activity up north now
edit 5.15
I see some storm activity up north now
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Whangarei has received 50mm from this event while down in Auckland we get 0.8
- Willoughby
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
It doesn't take much of an easterly up there to promise a good soaking.David wrote:Whangarei has received 50mm from this event while down in Auckland we get 0.8
Great start to the day here, mostly sunny and 11C
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Apparently Whangarei has an annual total approaching 1400mm already due to all of the heavy rain events there this year. And I suspect some of the areas slightly inland of Northland along the eastern hills there would have totals this year of 1600mm if not moreFoggy wrote:It doesn't take much of an easterly up there to promise a good soaking.
Whereas Akl airport has under 700mm for the year and I have 940mm here in the east.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
So much for the period of rain forecast for this morning, not a sign there is any rain around in the skies right now
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
yes it is quite stange that the rain hasn't arrived at all yet. It really feels like Summer today
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
On the humid side today 14C dewpoints, 19C.Cloudy, some small towering Cu around.
Monday should be a good day for heavy shower/ thunder risk.
Monday should be a good day for heavy shower/ thunder risk.
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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep
Some build ups popping up around Auckland right now, a good one puffing up into the sky to my southeast with bubbly looking top and a grey baseline.