Low crossing NZ Oct 10th-12th

[NZstorm]

A developing low will cross the country Thursday. While much of the country will get some wet weather from this, the worst of the rain will fall from the lower NI to north Otago. There is potential for some heavy falls over coastward high ground along the east of the South Island.

Isolated thunderstorms look possible anywhere within this system given moist low level air. Also looks to be a chance of thunderstorms over upper North Island on thursday due to cooling upper air.

[Manukau heads obs]

eastern SI getting rain in October is a sure sign of a La Nina!

[Razor]

Hmm I'm driving from ChCh to Dunedin today and back either tomorrow or Thirsday....could be a fun drive!

Lovely sunny start here. Glorious.

[Michael]

Enjoying the humidity now

[David]

Liking the look of the system on Sunday - looks sure to be wet and very windy
Also looks to be decent rain Thurs/Friday

[Inny Binny]

Canterbury is the focal point of the system this time - yay!

Nice lot of rain coming.

[Storm Struck]

A good load of rain coming for sure, its hard to say how much but I would imagine some big totals.
Couldn't believe it the Waimak river is still bank to bank same as yesterday .
Watch for some instability as the winds swing from SE to colder SW later on Thursday, could be a few thunderstorms and good downpours .
Nice day today after the morning fog cleared, also a little bit of CU inland.
Cheers
Jason.

[TonyT]

Nice lot of rain coming.

You can have too much of a good thing...

[mikestormchaser]

yusss some exciting weather coming hehe bring it! and the THUNDERSTORMS! here we go! Canterbury's back!
Thats what i call positiveness looking rather good so far!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It's about time for another 50mm dump. It's been a while

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

A low expected across central New Zealand by Wednesday could bring heavy rain in a wide range of areas from Northland to the Bay of Plenty, including parts of Auckland.
From this article: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4230122a10.html

It's about time for another 50mm dump. It's been a while

Has Canterbury ever had a 100mm dump in recent times?

[melja]

M/S have given a heavy rain warning now up to 100mm for cant and 120mm for marlborough so we will have to wait and see now but if we do get 100mm then flooding maybe a problem as in the past this amount has caused rivers like the ashley here in rangiora and even the waimak to get very high! and they are a bit high now.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Has Canterbury ever had a 100mm dump in recent times?

NO, but it could be on the cards for the next few days.
The Waiau river could the one to watch, also you may see water in the Selwyn River on state highway One just south of Norwood

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZstorm]

Warm upper air will likely cap convection over the upper North Island today. A sharpening front and possibly some richer moisture coming in from the north may lead to some thunderstorm development on the front this afternoon but I am pessimistic this will happen.

An upper cold pool crossing the upper North Island later tommorrow should produce a few squally thunderstorms/hail.

[Michael]

We never get rain in a NW until a low forms turning the flow or its during a frontal passage.Rain will arrive if we get a NE,W or the SW of course.

[Weathermad]

Wow just had a very heavy shower come in from the NE in Belfast and quite unusual I would have thought.

I just wonder what sort of rainfall totals will accumulate over the next 24 hours here in Christchurch

Here is the Metconnect take on it at 8.45 around the area

[Inny Binny]

M/S have just updated their warning and they are still forecasting 60-100mm for Canterbury and Marlborough. Blue Skies seem to be following about the same numbers.

EDIT: Heavy rain/shower here now.

[spwill]

So a wet day for the All Black ticker tape parade through Christchurch.

Light rain here, 16C, dewpoint is 15C.

[tich]

Just some brief rain earlier this morning in central Chch. (0.2mm at Hillmorton)

[Wildland]

It's off to a good start here in Tawa.
31 mm in the 11 hours to midday. Brings monthly total to 74 mm.
... gurgle ...

[David]

7.5mm here in the east of Auckland today - and misty with poor visibility despite the ENE breeze.
Looking good on the radar as an organised rain band slowly slides toward us

[Inny Binny]

Very little in the way of rain here today (apart from the very heavy shower in the morning), off and on light stuff.

[David]

Some models really do foresee (or guess) that the low crossing today and the one this weekend will give a dump of rain over most of the country
Hopefully some really good totals here too

[gllitz]

Very little in the way of rain here today (apart from the very heavy shower in the morning), off and on light stuff.

Models don't show the rain really getting here til tonight/tmrw morning....

[Storm Struck]

Just light stuff where I was today but that was to be expected.
Heavy falls moving down overnight and into tomorrow morning, so watch the Avon river and all other rivers too for that matter.
Rain is gradually picking up here now.
Cheers
Jason.