Active trough and depression Oct 13th-15th

[spwill]

Windy sunny and cool morning.
Non thunderstorm cloud in the Tasman.
Wont be much land heating today with the strong winds and our dewpoints are below 10C

[David]

A high risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but hail not expected to be larger anymore.
Still 110kmh gusts possible.
Wind was picking up with 60kmh gusts but seems to have dropped away again. When is all the activity expected to move over Auckland?

[Manukau heads obs]

MetService have downgraded things from what it was forecasted yesterday, so people we have picked that things just did not stack up to support the scenareo forecasted

[NZstorm]

Yes, we alluded to the lack of active convection in the Tasman yesterday. And it doesn't look a whole lot better today.
The coldest upper air passes through this evening with some squally showers. Maybe a lightning strike or two.

The big trough coming this week looks interesting, some unseasonable snow on the southern hills by the looks.

[Inny Binny]

Looks like Auckland ahs caught the "Canterbury weather" bug now!

[David]

MetService have downgraded things from what it was forecasted yesterday

Well I remember yesterday the thunder risk was moderate for this afternoon - MS have raised that to a high risk. Also tomorrow has a high risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon as a front crosses.

That wind is becoming quite noticeable now - the airport readings are 33knots gusting to 45knots. Not that strong though here, yet. I see we are expected for all of the activity in the afternoon now.

[David]

I completely don't understand how when I look at the clouds the weather is moving from the northwest. The radar shows the showers moving from the WSW - one grey cloud appeared in the WSW but moved from the NW.
It happens so often!
?????

[RWood]

Sunny and breezy here - much better than during the week. Cloud pouring across Tararuas to the north and some bypassing us will to the east offshore.

[RWood]

Some parts of the Atacama Desert have not had any rain for over 400 years actually
I could not stand no rainfall.

That's often put about, but I don't think there's any evidence. Wherever they put a rain gauage, they get some (very little) rain. Quillaga, inland from Antofagasta, has the lowest current 30-year average, and is quoted at 0.5mm/year average over the period 1964-2001. For longer records, Arica has averaged only about 0.8mm/year over a 100-year span.

[David]

If it weren't for the wind you could call it a nice day. I don't know why the forecast was so dramatic.

[Paul Mallinson]

If it weren't for the wind you could call it a nice day. I don't know why the forecast was so dramatic.

The worry has been not so much lightning from very deep convection (TS), but very bouyant clouds up into the mid to high teens (thousands of feet) in depth. These would add convective gusts to the background wind field and yesterday (for today) looked like they could produce sizable hail.

All midday soundings (Invercargill, Paraparaumu and Whenuapai) have all cooled substantially at midday and will cool further.

Paul

[David]

Yes but you are expecting them to cross Auckland - where are they?

[squid]

i will be in Nz for the next 6 weeks will be watching and reporting weather when i can i will be back in dargaville

[Storm Struck]

Just had a really good burst of heavy rain come through, with 5.7mm falling in the space of 10mins.
Big drops too like west coast drops , its not cold out either with 13C.
Watch out for a clap or two if more come through, wind has swung back to the westerly here now.
Looks to be a rather unstable week ahead for much of the country, even a few days of thunder possible here Wednesday looks the best though.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just had a really good burst of heavy rain come through, with 5.7mm falling in the space of 10mins.
Big drops too like west coast drops , its not cold out either with 13C.

Looked black and thundery from here, Jason ...actually it still does, but.....

JohnGaul
NZTS

[tich]

Looks quite dark to the north of Chch, but we haven't had any rain since late morning. Southerly is still rather gusty at times and rather cold too.

[GraemeWi]

We have had a heavy shower with a glaciated top + strong winds go through Henderson approx 20 minutes ago.

Yeah! Getting better

[Storm Struck]

Just had another brief heavy shower from that, drops have been rather big too.
Wind has swung back to the southerly here but only light, nothing strong or gusty.
Cheers
Jason.

[mikestormchaser]

strong Southerly here, quite gusty actually, yes those clouds looked abit unstable earlier but i didn't expect anything thundery out of them.
Been rather dry on this part of town, showers more going inland i reakon

[spwill]

Auckland dewpoints are only 6C dry air for up this way.
The dry air showed up on yesterdays sat pic with a lack of deep convection behind the Front out in the Tasman.

[David]

Should be better tomorrow (hopefully) for some decent activity - today was disappointing. The wettest part was a spitty shower which didn't even register in the gauge.

[NZstorm]

Should be better tomorrow (hopefully) for some decent activity - today was disappointing.

Yes, a fine sort of a day here apart from that blustery wind. To be fair, the models have always had the unstable air coming in tonight David although obviously there's not much in it now.

I don't see much of a thunderstorm risk over NZ tomorrow (Monday). But I'll update my convective forecast in the morning. I've got a weather sensitive project on at the moment.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes the winds were strong from the SW but not as strong here as what I expected considering the depth of the low.
Here are some pix I took today

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I don't see much of a thunderstorm risk over NZ tomorrow (Monday). But I'll update my convective forecast in the morning. I've got a weather sensitive project on at the moment.

Yes, i don't either I don't know what Kay was ranting and raving on about thunderstorm activity for coastal areas of Canterbury on the weather on TV???

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

I think if anything does eventuate tomorrow which i doubt it, could well be the typical high based heavy thundery shower activity.
Although I think these showers may sit offshore or over BP as usual in a NW flow such as tomorrow.
Wednesday looks to be the best bet at this stage, but thats about as good of a bet in saying the kiwi's will beat the Kangaroos in the league .
Cheers
Jason.