Back to summer temps, but gusty norwester as well

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 02/04/2004 17:34

After a chilly end to March, a northwest flow has arrived to push the thermometors back to summer levels in Chch. But the northwesterlies have been pretty gusty today - possibly even gale at times this afternoon.
The odd cumulus cloud seems to indicate a change to a westerly flow.

However, it looks like the descent into winter will continue again with another cold southerly outbreak early next week, similar in intensity and temperatures to the last one. An early ski-season looming?

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 02/04/2004 20:25

The models look like developing a low to the northeast of the North Island from Tuesday (cold air pushing into warmer seas), maintaining a cold southeasterly flow over the North Island, with below 540 thickness levels over the greater part of the island. Could be interesting for Gisborne and Hawkes Bay if this eventuates.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/04/2004 22:02

Looks like being cool to rather cold next week with at least some showers in Eastern parts .
The developing Low out to the East of NZ next week should be just far enough East to prevent heavy rain from occuring in Hawkesbay , Gisborne.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 03/04/2004 13:07

I suspect some heavy rainfall will occur in the Gisborne region given the fact the air will be onshore and unstable.

Easter break looks likely to start cold and unsettled for the country then improving.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 03/04/2004 16:24

There is certainly the risk of heavy rain in the East of the North Island this week.
The comming weather situation would produce good Thunderstorms in the summer months, so it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 03/04/2004 16:39

The looming scenario looks suspiciously like what happened back in April 1991

, when a cold southerly interacted with warm sea temperatures to create an intense low system to the east of the North Island, resulting in savage flooding in parts of Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay. I doubt this coming system will get that severe, but the situation does look somewhat similar, though the low looks like forming further north, meaning Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay should be more in the firing line.