Wintry week

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 04/04/2004 19:57

Looks like it'll be a taste of winter for much of this week over much of NZ, especially if the predicted low to the east sticks around. Snow to 400 metres in the far south may be rather early for the time of year, but by no means unknown, but who knows,the levels might get even lower. But I guess the significance of this cold outbreak may be its duration. Canterbury looks like getting cold showery weather from tomorrow afternoon right through to Friday, though there are no predictions of heavy rain. Maybe some hail on Monday night and Tuesday.

We've already had an entree to this system today in Chch and Banks Peninsula - light rain for a good portion of the morning, and another shower about midafternoon (at least on the peninsula). Cleared up now, but should be chilly tonight. (pretty cold all day) Let's hope for a window of fine sunny weather tomorrow - might be the last for several days.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/04/2004 20:12

Yes it sure does, although I think that thunder may be less likely, here.
Lifted index potential looks too high, even for Friday when MetService has predicted a thunderstorm outbreak for the NI.
May get wintry hail or just fine weather with this outbreak ... but it should be bloody cold especially for early April. The high in the Tassy is the strongest around for a while but it should be a good cradle for the developing low off the east coast of the NI.

Incidentally, I recorded 29.8C on Friday which is an all time high for me for April

JohnGaul
NZTS

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 04/04/2004 21:34

The wintry weather Met Service has predicted for early to mid week is not really reflected in the Long Range Charts, must be a pool of cold air with that developing Low, however later in the week the weather looks very wintry with snow flurries to near sea level in the far south and East if the charts stay the way they are now.

Should be plenty of CB clouds around this week.

There is good potential for Thunderstorms but I would say mostly coastal, the sun is perhaps a bit weak now to kick off much in the way Cloud build ups over the land.

jeffsweather · Unread post by **jeffsweather** » Sun 04/04/2004 22:13

Who saw the TV One weather where they had 21 for Christchurch as a max for today?
It looked like they had some of yesterdays temps up there. It was 10.7 at the airport at 3pm today so where 21 came from is anyones guess.

I recorded a max of 13.4 today .... at 12:30am. Might try emailing them and see what sort of reply I receive.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/04/2004 22:52

jeffsweather wrote:Who saw the TV One weather where they had 21 for Christchurch as a max for today?
It looked like they had some of yesterdays temps up there. It was 10.7 at the airport at 3pm today so where 21 came from is anyones guess.

I recorded a max of 13.4 today .... at 12:30am. Might try emailing them and see what sort of reply I receive.

I give up on TV One weather when Kay Gregory appears. She was on tonight so I don't know what todays temp for ChCh was. I'd say it would be around the 11c mark. I got up to 12C.
My readings are taken in the morning for the 24 hour period.

I see TV3 has a new male presenter doing the weather. I hope he dosen't become a 'Weather Boy"

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sun 04/04/2004 23:12

I went to Lyttleton to do a spot of nonsense fishing and noticed some mamantis type stuff I think which looked ok.

I'll get the camera batteries charged but I hope it's not to windy if any lightning comes by at night, the cold is ok but if it gets windy that can make it annoying!! Plus it brings in that wind-chill factor!

Also got a wee red cod, pathetic!! put it back! lol.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/04/2004 23:22

Yes, Aaron, I noticed that cloud too. Product of a weak convergence that produced a few spots of rain here around 4pm.
I don't expect much for tomorrow, the barometer is a bit too high but whatever happens could be interesting as the anticyclone in the Tasman Sea is quite strong and could enhance a cold southerly feed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 05/04/2004 09:24

Get those fish in winter when theres hard frosts.They dont fight hard either

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Also got a wee red cod, pathetic!! put it back! lol.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 05/04/2004 12:29

This spell of weather looks to be a bid more solid and if anything should produce something interesting somewhere. I agree with John as the baro is high but that high will enhance the southerly feed, what's that I see outside right now though, a tiny Cu cloud forming....let the day and night bring fourth its furry!! hehe.

Yes Micheal, their not much of a fighter. Go to the Chch Pier in the middle of the night (well it doesn't have to be at the middle of the night, on dusk and after anyway) at high tide in winter and the cod bit hard! It's quite fun, agreed they don't fight hard but the're big at the pier. Mind you that was three or so years ago now but I'll probably give it a go this winter again. Sometimes the cod arn't running and you get nothing! but some nights are great fun, very cold though. Unfortunately the poor old red cod an't good for much in terms of eating but the traditional way is in tinfoil with lemon/spices etc and they turn out ok.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 05/04/2004 13:01

Well, just went for a walk and there are Cu clouds bubbling up most places with that sharp covective look about them, and despite the cold morning (channel one said -2 (did I hear that wrong?) Jeffs weather says the min was 2.7 degrees, sounds better) the day is warming up nicely, up to 17 C now. We'll have to see where it goes.

Edited 1:36pm: The tropopause seems high enough at about 8000m for thunder, I note the wind is tending more S but it seems to be very variable at present. I note the dewpoint is low though so that not good.

Edited 2:43pm: Clouded over now with the wind being Southerly and a bit more cooler. There is what looks to be a clearing behind this cloud so once it moves on through it could come out fine again but behind that clearing way further south there looks to be other clouds..???

Hmmm?? Mayby I'll wait until something exciting happens if it does and then report back, hehe.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Mon 05/04/2004 17:50

It starting to get a little chilly

Temp ATM 7.2 degrees C

Max 12.9, 1022mb and steady

Interesting to see if C.Otago gets the very cold air and snow showers, or if stays by the coast

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 05/04/2004 18:01

Looks like some action inland this afternoon, but nothing much in the city (just enough to dampen the ground about 20 minutes ago) Should've been at least some hail in the dark shower cloud around 3PM (Waimakiriri Gorge area), quite possibly a thunderstorm. BTW a chilly morning - frost in Chch, but none out near Akaroa (though not far from it).

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 05/04/2004 18:06

The trough looks resonably active and I think showers will spread inland Andy. I'm not so sure about the snow levels though.

Midday sounding shows a typical polar airmass with very cold air, unstable to about 7000m(height of tropopause). freezing level around 1000m. I would expect this to lower a little bit overnight. With the milder sea surface temps at this time of year should see some decent showers with hail forming, as the cold trough shifts further north.

Best thunderstorm potential is over the central and lower North island tomorrow. Daytime heating will enhance the possiblity of thunder and hail in these regions.

Troughs like this are more interesting in late spring/summer when there is a bit of heat to kick off the cb's.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 05/04/2004 20:17

Why does the sky punish me!!

I went on to the roof as you do at about 6:30pm to scare the neighbours, just kidding, to check if there was any lightning about and "flash" out at sea some nice forked lightning. Blo%dy He#l I exclaim running off the roof, so I grabbed the camera and ran to the beach. Flash again and again with thunder (not that loud, it was slightly distant ligthning) but once I got my camera set up everything went dead!! I sat their for an hour only seeing three more flashes and typically they were when the noise reduction was going or I was positioning the camera. Why oh why does this happen to me. I've had three chances so far this year to get lightning at night!, one was great and tonight and the weekend before last weren't that great but still, three night time storms in Cantab is doing really good. The lightning seems to say "hey here's Aaron, lets stop!". Oh dear.....

I'll put some pics up later that I took today of cloud stucture but I hope this thing an't over yet!

Frustratingly yours

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Mon 05/04/2004 20:26

Impressive electrical storm over Methven this evening,fork and bolt lightning,this storm had it all.Will go and rewind my tape and see what I have captured.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 05/04/2004 20:32

I saw that Cb on the Sat behind Ashburton and I was woundering if you got to see the storm, looks like you did! The storm that was near me only began firing when it got offshore, just a matter of timing. At least some success is being had here!!

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Mon 05/04/2004 21:06

You beat me to it Aaron,anyway heres the Cb on the 7.30pm NOAA Sat.
Heavy showers,temp down to 7.4 here.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 05/04/2004 21:18

I would say residue heat in the enviroment from past warm days is helping fuel Cb development over the inland down there.

Looking forward to any photo's.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Mon 05/04/2004 21:20

Looks to be some hail falling around the district as well.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 05/04/2004 21:39

Yeah Dean...this link shows a good big view:

http://www.metvuw.com/radar/radar-big.c ... 0Z_cny.gif

We had a short heavy burst of rain but silent now, mayby something else will come through? My instinct tells me no as these storms were ever they form tend to move ENE and never north, but hey, you never know?

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Mon 05/04/2004 22:19

Using IR colour coding for temperature on the 7:30 satellite image shows the storms more clearly.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/04/2004 22:42

Never heard or saw a thing, maybe I should resign my NZTS position

We had people for tea and I was otherwize engaged.
However, I did hear sfericalls around 7pm, first all day and I did go outside to investigate but saw nothing.
The sky did look very unstable this afternoon with 'dead' Cb forms westward ho and the southerly did drop away with the wind becoming light and variable.
Deano, I hope you got something.

Anyway it's calm outside now and 9c.
Light steady rain falling now but it could become heavier later?
Barometer rising.
...by the way I recorded a frost here this morning, first for the year.
1.3C in the screen but my grass thermometer recorded a frost of minus 2

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 05/04/2004 22:50

Quite a heavy shower in central Chch now, but still liquid stuff as far as I've noticed. I see temps have dropped to low single figures in Otago and Southland in the 9PM obs, with showers probably continuing down there - snow levels could be getting quite low.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Mon 05/04/2004 22:57

Heavy rain has been continuous for the last half hour here and temp down to 5.1C. There might have been some hail earlier but that's just guessing from the noise on the roof.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/04/2004 23:15

Raining steadier now here. I don't know how much has fallen as I have done my 10pm readings. I'll find out when I do my officials at 7:30am.
Like Ben said just the liquid stuff. The Southerly has picked up a bit too.
I'm just imagining what if it would like if the barometer was about 990hPa with this sort of scenario, and it was late spring/early summer ??
ECMWF model scenario for Thursday looks good for thunderstorms for Canterbury at the moment

JohnGaul
NZTS