Severe thunderstorms to end 07, Waikato ?

[Willoughby]

Apologies for not being on here much, doing 65 hours this week.

Anyway, bit of a ballyhoo here guys for 2007. The year isn't over yet!
The latest 00 and 06z runs of the GFS suggest a strong surface low will form over the Waikato on Monday.. and with a upper-level trough passing over the North Island things are looking juicy. Surface temperatures look like they'll reach 27C atleast over basin inland Waikato with 19C dewpoints here hopefully and seabreeze convergence against the light southeasterlies.

GFS 06z has this exploding in western Waikato with CAPE values rising to over 1200j/kg with the cap easily being broken there by midday.

We had some wicked storms to start 07, lets hope she isn't over yet.

Who's up for a Waikato storm chase? It's been a while and would be cool to catch up.

[Manukau heads obs]

yes it would be great to catch up
I am in
(but I will have to be back to milk cows later in the day )

[NZstorm]

The clitch in the forecast is those 19C dewpoints. If that happened it would be all on but sadly I see dewpoints being lower, maybe 14 or 15C if we are lucky.

[jamie]

awww crappy poo . Im heading to the mount tonight and wont be back until the 3rd. Im soo keen to get some severe thunderstorms. Knowing my luck we will have a hum dinga of a thunderstorm come right over top while im gone.

[Paul Mallinson]

Good call I think Foggy.

Have posted a high risk of TS in the Waikato and surrounding areas tomorrow afternoon and with cell motions being quite slow, there is a chance or rainfall rates being higher than 25mm/hr. That can be assessed again tomorrow morning.

Paul

[David]

a high risk of TS in the Waikato

The chart shows this, only a high risk in the Waikato area... surely the surrounding area such as Auckland would have a moderate or low risk as opposed to no risk?

[NZstorm]

I have been looking at December 31st for the last few days but have been put off by the not so high dewpoints. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow shapes up.

[Paul Mallinson]

Although the dewpoint at Hamilton is currently 12C guidance would suggest that this is going to rise to about 18C tomorrow afternoon along with the sfc temp pushing 29C. The moister air looks like it is coming in from the southwest.

As far as Auckland goes, there might be a very low risk there but it looks like with a max temp about 25C and a dewpoint of 17-18C, the forecast sounding is rather dry aloft and there is a bit of a warm nose at about 6000ft to get by. So with much weaker sfc convergence than over Waikato, it doesn't look very likely.

Paul

[Vertigo]

curious, where are you getting your cape data?

[Manukau heads obs]

DP has come up overnight here on the SW wind, now at 14.5 (at 5:30am), and has been as high as 15.5 during the night

[tgsnoopy]

Who's up for a Waikato storm chase?

Waiting to see what transpires this morning. Certainly looking, but it'll need to be good considering what day of the year it is.

Also have my ex over from Australia, not sure if I will be allowed

[NZstorm]

I will certainly be watching to see how the afternoon shapes up. Clouded up a bit here now but cloud should burn off this morning.

[ricky]

I'll be watching from a distance in the far North!

[Manukau heads obs]

a few misty showers here on the SW wind
DP now 16 here
I could milk dem cows early and meet up with you guys down in the waikato...
with the SE change , the afternoon showers might work there way into the northern waikato, so not so far to chase from here

[tgsnoopy]

I could milk dem cows early and meet up with you guys down in the waikato...

Ok, now I'm paying attention!

[Manukau heads obs]

Foggy's station is reporting high solar conditions now, so the cloud must be burning off in the waikato now
http://www.hamiltonweather.co.nz/
so things are looking good

[Willoughby]

Sunshine increasing here now, dewpoint is 16C, temperature 20.
Obviously the GFS has down-tuned it's parameters over the last few runs.. probably can be expected though I guess.

curious, where are you getting your cape data?

Hey.. try here: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html or http://nomad5.ncep.noaa.gov/ncep_data/index.html

[spwill]

Flew back to Auckland late yesterday after spending 4 very pleasant days in Greytown.

Currently overcast 21C, dewpoint 15C here. Quite a deep layer of low cloud for the sun to shift today.
Will be heading south this afternoon if clouds start building.

[Willoughby]

Mostly sunny here now as you can see above, southeasterlies are inhibiting convection a bit.. but it's quite slow to start so far.

Not much relative moisture in the grounds either I forget... limiting evapotranspiration after quite a dry year.

[Manukau heads obs]

wind variable here now, tending ESE
and some mist/drizzle lines with that wind change moving across, and overcast, so no heating (19.5C)

your temperature is still climbing fast I see Foggy!

[NZstorm]

Is that a sea breeze at Raglan now WNW 08kts.

[Willoughby]

wind variable here now, tending ESE
and some mist/drizzle lines with that wind change moving across, and overcast, so no heating (19.5C)

your temperature is still climbing fast I see Foggy!

Up to 28.4C in the city now with very light or none at all of wind... HOT

There's a bit of convergance there to the west but none of it is looking very unstable.

[spwill]

Perhaps some late seabreeze convergence along the West coast?
Skies just clearing here now 22C dewpoint 17C, should have a warm evening .

[NZstorm]

There's a bit of convergance there to the west but none of it is looking very unstable.

Yes, I'm looking at the weather through that webcam at Raglan.

[David]

So strange, at 3.30pm at was 24C (the days high temp) here, just checked again at 5.00pm, temp still 24C but since the last time I looked it got to 26C. Did notice the heat about an hour ago, didn't think 26C though? Noticed a few of the stations around Auckland are recording the day's high now or very recently. I have no reason to doubt my thermometer, so maybe a spike in temperature (local)

Looks like the storms were a no show for Waikato then