Potent. USA historical event

[jamie]

Had an email come in this morning about the possibility of a really good severe weather event ocuring over there on Monday and Tuesday.

This is what Roger who does the tours had to say.
"The GFS and ECMWF are both showing a VERY VERY strong digging trough through the south central Rockies moving into the TX/OK region on Monday and Tuesday. ALL MODELS show strong destabilization, close to 2000 CAPE and dewpoints well into the 60s as far north as northeast OK on Monday!! Shear is off the charts! Then the entire scenario moves about 300 miles east into AR/MO/LA on Tuesday! If the models are correct, I would expect a SIGNIFICANT severe weather outbreak both days, with most likely a broken line of storms, with embedded supercells, along with isolated supercells developing ahead of the broken line. I would expect, based on experience, that many tornadoes are possible, some strong, along with an eventual transition into a raging wind damaging squall line both days.
This could be an opportunity to see a potentially historic severe weather event unfold early next week! I am excited at this point in time!!!"

Ive just emaild him back with my interest in doing this. Workd out its going to cost about $4,500 all up so im now re thinking lol.

[NZstorm]

Storm chasing followed by snow chasing! Possibly good value

[Willoughby]

Yes, sure is an amazing setup nearing mid-winter! Actually quite a belt of unseasonable weather forecast across the eastern section of the states.. Corpus Christi, TX maximum temps in the mid teens of late set to be in the late twenties from Sunday.. and New York City to get past 60F or 17C early next week!

Impressive to say the least.


I think Jamie a Darwin cyclone chase right now is a bit more value for money!!

[NZstorm]

Looking like W Arkansas might be the hot spot in the first severe ts event of 2008.

I notice OK City had a max of 25C today!

[NZstorm]

A few tornadoes reported today from the midwest including Wisconsin which apparently has only recorded a tornado once before in the month of January. So looking like a historical event.

[jamie]

I see there has been a PDS warning issued aswell http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0005.html
Dont ya just wish you could be over there.

[NZstorm]

Dont ya just wish you could be over there.

Remember nightfall at 5.30pm so not good for storm chasers at this time of year.

This morning the SPC were forecasting a slight risk for the affected area but what resulted was a major severe weather outbreak with cyclic supercells/damaging tornadoes. Considering its a January event is this a sign of another early tornado season like there has been for the last 3 years. You have to go back to 2004 when the tornado season extended beyond early may.

[jamie]

Looks as though there is going to be another historical event in the next few days for the south central part of the US. Sounds and looks like it is going to be a goodie

[gllitz]

Looks as though there is going to be another historical event in the next few days for the south central part of the US. Sounds and looks like it is going to be a goodie

Here's what the NWS are saying about it:

WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT
AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK
PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.

[jamie]

PDS warnings are currently out .

Looks very good for a historic day over there. I would amagine there would be some huge long lived tornadoes there today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

[Willoughby]

Upgraded to a high risk! (1st for 2008)

Watch the supercell on the LA/Arkansas border... tornado warned now with tops to 50,000 feet!

[jamie]

What a setup!!!!!!!!

There are countless thunderstorms infront of the dry line, many supercells and one nasty looking squall line.

[Manukau heads obs]

wow alright!
i see reports of baseball sized hail, and tornado reports in now!

[Vertigo]

not sure if you guys already know about it, but i found this, and takes US weather watching to a whole new level. wish we had similar here it basicly overlays radar and other images over a map of the states, and updates every image every few minutes.

Grlevel3

right now im watching rain radar, total rainfall amounts for the past hour, and the total storm rainfall. it also detects the locations of mesocyclones and plots them on the maps, so far all of them have left vast areas of heavy rainfall that looks like tracks

you need to go to the menu and select the weather data station to grab from, i think it has some gps location tracking thing too if you plugin a garmin, but thats not much use for us here!

edit: my bad, you can just click on the stations
edit2: lexington, tn just got a direct hit :/

[jamie]

Still one good individual supercell. Heading right for Nashville, Tennessee. Did have a nice hook echo going on there for a while.

[Vertigo]

wow yea... i just watched them hit nashville, as they came up in grlevel3 as pink triangles. hillary clinton even mentioned tenessee in her new york winning speech just now on bbcworld. apparently there has been a lot of devestation, and many lives lost already.

[Willoughby]

not sure if you guys already know about it, but i found this, and takes US weather watching to a whole new level. wish we had similar here it basicly overlays radar and other images over a map of the states, and updates every image every few minutes.

Yes I think I need to buy the software now, my trial ended a long time ago..

We were using the software with GPS in the states and transmitting our location via CDMA internet.. it sure is an excellent piece of software.
Add this link to one of the placefiles in grlevel3, will show all the storm reports and active chaser locations: http://www.spotternetwork.org/grlevelx.txt

Take a look at our 07 chase thread also, was an epic journey. http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... f=9&t=2292

Nashville TN had tornadoes on the ground and 3 fatalities have already occured from Greenville, KY... always a downside to these tremendous storms.

[ricky]

Didn't think I'd be firing up GRLevel3 again so soon! sure has been interesting to watch today

[gllitz]

I've just read a report that 52 people are now dead from these storms....what a tragedy!!


http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/0 ... pstoryview

[NZstorm]

They are saying the deadliest US tornado outbreak since 1985 and the earliest tornado outbreak since 1969. Another historical event! When ever the SPC signal a 'High Risk' you know a day of mayhem is in store.

[Manukau heads obs]

something like 77 tornadoes in total!

[Manukau heads obs]

check this out:
http://www.knology.net/~blackjack52/radar/6feb08.gif

that guy put together a loop of the big days grlevel3

[NZstorm]

Alabama had a big tornado day yesterday with a lot of damage around Prattville.

Gulf of Mexico remains charged up with high dewpoint air so it looks like an active tornado season is on the cards.