Dry and hot, North Island, January

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David
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by David »

We have become victims of poor forecasting :cry: :x
Why forecast a dump of rain when it wasn't even moving this direction??
Its not so bad if you had a wet day, followed by a completely wrong rain forecast the next day.
In this case there had been 11 days with no rain, and many people who anticipated a good dose of rain will be very annoyed (e.g farmers and gardeners). This could perhaps be one our driest periods in a while, even though we are in La Nina? :(

I'm guessing our 3mm will dry out today if the sun comes out.
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GraemeWi
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by GraemeWi »

We got a handy 6mm in Henderson... though now I have shifted into the suburbs I no longer have to rely on tank water
spwill
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by spwill »

We have become victims of poor forecasting
But the rain did arrive David, was only a Watch for heavy rain over the North Auckland area. 7mm at Grey Lynn
This could perhaps be one our driest periods in a while, even though we are in La Nina?
Yes the rain this summer is falling in the SW of NZ not the NE (apart from a wet spell over Northland in December) but it has been cloudy for the NE.
Still early in the summer, Ridging may drop south.
Last edited by spwill on Wed 09/01/2008 09:44, edited 1 time in total.
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Ridging may drop south.
Yes, that is the key =D>
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C-Nimbus
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by C-Nimbus »

we got about 10mm overnight here in my part of henderson (sunnyvale) which is useful for the garden :mrgreen:

The northland rain band is weakening considerably as we speak
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Michael
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

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Nice humidity too,so far a good start No SW yet ;)
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Vertigo
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Vertigo »

amaaaazing clouds in auckland this late afternoon! i was just outside the office briefly, and saw massive, black cu/cb's, and they look like they are approaching the city. can anyone confirm? im back inside now :( 10 mins till i can go to one tree hill to check them out properly!
spwill
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by spwill »

saw massive, black cu/cb's, and they look like they are approaching the city. can anyone confirm
Just low top Cumulus and perhaps a light shower. Humid conditions with 19C dewpoints today.
jamie
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Very hot and humid here today. Was mowing the lawns at midday and there was still a dew on the ground, which to my understanding means high humidity as the surrounding air cannot take much more water :-k ? Someone may want to correct me if im wrong.
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Vertigo
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Vertigo »

well i made it up to one tree hill - very dark and ominous. very localized rain around, except for south auckland, which had so much rain it looked like it was under fog. after an hour or so it seemed to reverse direction and move back to the south, unfortunate ](*,)
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David
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Re: Untable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by David »

Vertigo wrote:south auckland, which had so much rain it looked like it was under fog. after an hour
Rain radar showed nothing but some local drizzle/light shower this afternoon.
Drizzle can easily look like fog because of its fine moisture droplets, doesn't mean because it looked like fog it was heavy rain. I find sometimes drizzle can cause this effect, but am usually able to tell if it looks heavy from a distance.
Did notice these clouds at the time, didn't really think much of them though, they were quite limited in height, and I think upper temps are too warm to allow for much vertical cu development at all - as spwill stated, just low-topped cumulus.
The dark cu could have been caused by convergence, but I don't think much was happening. Perhaps plenty of low level moisture and daytime heating triggered this :-k
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Willoughby
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Willoughby »

Very balmy this evening, as winds turned northwest I recorded the daily maximum of 26.7C at 8.03pm... pretty rare to see it max out so late.

Looks like tomorrow's late easterly change could become gusty... but probably not as gusty as the sou'wester in AK. ;)

I notice Cape Palliser was on 23C at 10pm.. with just 20% humidity.. that's a pretty decent direct foehn there at the moment.
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David
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

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Foggy wrote:as winds turned northwest I recorded the daily maximum of 26.7C at 8.03pm... pretty rare to see it max out so late.
That is interesting, it was just over 21C at 8pm here yesterday evening, the daily maximum was before 4pm. Our breezes were NE all day, with no NW change. Wasn't expecting a low of 17.7C this morning with a SW wind :-k
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jamie
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Heck i could belive that Foggy, went to bed with the house wide open and the thermometer inside was saying 27.

Interesting to see that both GFS and ECMWF are both supporting a TC to form between Vanuatu and Fiji and move south towards NZ in their extended long range forcasts :-k .
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, could be alot of rain coming for the upper NI in the last week of january me thinks
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jamie
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by jamie »

WOW, is it hot or is it hot? Been working in the sun out of the very little breeze we have here. My guestimate would be that its the hottest day of the summer here so far.
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David
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by David »

Daily maximums have been extremely consistent here so far this month, average high is 24.5C, the coldest days being 23.9C and the warmest day being 25.6C. Makes a 1.7 degrees range, and a standard deviation of 0.6 degrees.
(daily highs 1st-10th Jan: {23.9, 23.9, 25.6, 24.1, 23.8, 24.9, 24.9, 24.1, 24.9, 24.8})
I see Foggy's station is reporting almost 29C...so looking like for Waikato it could well be the warmest day of summer so far, yet here 26C seems out of reach :-k
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

we dont have the land mass to heat up in the auckland area David
However you just need to go as far south as just east of pukekohe where they reached over 26oC today (where the cooling SW wind was not as strong and was warmed alot as it travelled over the land from the coast SW of Waiuku)
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spwill
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by spwill »

Auckland dewpoints around 15C today down from 19C yesterday so a different feel to the day, much less humid. I see WLG/CHC dewpoints are currently around 5C so some very dry air to the south.
RWood
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by RWood »

There have been some months when Auckland's (Albert Park) average daily high was over 26C, and Henderson in Feb. 1998 had 28.1C (max 33.1).
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Michael
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

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Raining tonight.No rain in the forecast? :?
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Willoughby
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Willoughby »

Had a light evening shower just after sundown here... yes you're right David - it's hot and wasn't at all far away from breaking my all time station record high of 28.8C :)

GFS is progging 500mb temps to -3C with the nearing of a sub tropical low middle of next week, so some further high temperatures then (heck, we may even break thirty! - The airport last went past 30C in January of 2005... :? )

Dewpoint has now dropped to 4C with that southeasterly.
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

a NNW wind would be aucklands warnest wind at this time of year, heating up over northland .....(and for us here, a northerly is our warmest wind or an easterly (lots of land to heat up) ) (as long as there is good heating of the ground from the sun)
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spwill
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

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Dry ground conditions are a big factor with hot weather, get much better ground heating when there is a lack of greenery.
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David
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Re: Unstable and hot, North Island early Jan

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A slightly cooler (than recently) day here with the breeze tending NE this afternoon, though it definitely felt warm in the sun (which we seem to be enjoying quite a lot of recently). Only managed to reached 23.3C.

Getting very dry here now, fields and lawns around the area drying off and becoming brown, only 3.7mm in the last 16 days. Looking to be dry for at least another 5 or 6 days as well, which will extend this dry period, which could end up similar to:
3.8mm over 21 days, 23 Oct to 12 Nov 2005. (might last longer than this)
5.1mm over 26 days, 31 Jan to 25 Feb 2007. (probably won't last this long)
This was the last thing I was expecting! Has this happened very often in a La Nina before?
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