Dry and hot, North Island, January

[jamie]

Has this happened very often in a La Nina before?

In my grand fathers records dating back from 1992 we recieved above average rainfall in neutral years and below average rainfall in La Nina and El Nino years, even though aparantly we were ment to wetter than normal in a La Nina. So yes, my answer to that David is that we are dryer than normal in a La Nina pattern, but this is what we have found in Hamilton/Waikato and it may be different in Auckland

[David]

Interesting to see that both GFS and ECMWF are both supporting a TC to form between Vanuatu and Fiji and move south towards NZ in their extended long range forcasts .

Yes, one of the GFS I have looked at has it crossing the NI, however the other GFS and also ECMWF are completely different, predicting it will have little effect on NZ.

Also what's looking interesting:

ecmwf_chart1.gif

Current models indicate slow movement S, and intensification. Looking like our best bet for a cyclone to affect NZ so far this summer, with the anticyclone (forecast) over NZ at that time departing...
Still is 9 days off though so wouldn't be all that accurate

[RODALCO]

As far as I'm concerned great !
BBQ every night. 26°C during the day. night ± 19°C.
A fan will keep it beareable.
Summer finally here. Although a few nights it looked like that rain was on the way but not much happened anyway.
Looking forward to some action though, nothing beats a good thunderstorm.
Happy New Year to all .
Raymond

[David]

All the 5 models I looked at this morning agree on a similar scenario, that a subtropical depression will move over the North Island, with several models having a striking similarity of forecasting very heavy rainfall over northern Gisborne. At this stage, for us in Auckland, it looks as if we'll be experiencing a bit of a blow if this eventuates. The rain does not look to concentrate on Northland this time (at this stage), but we would probably see some decent rain anyway. I image with such a scenario the situation would change dramatically, so the models are something to keep an eye on about this. I certainly will be watching!
(there are also hints of more subtropical low pressure & rain late in January)

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, every run of the ecmwf shows a different scenario
latest run shows a TC heading towards us and then going down west of the NI...will mean northerly rain..
the main thing is that the trend of the model runs shows something is going to come down from the north in a week or so from now!

[Willoughby]

Was out at Raglan yesterday where it was sunny and fresh, just around 22C there... mostly cloudy back home and warm with 27. It was probably the first day there was a noticeable layer of haze around the greater region. Boy the hills around here are browning off quickly now.. you'd mistake it for Feb/March/April.

Attached is the latest drought code map from the NRFA site.

[TonyT]

I'd pick that the ridges will stay dominant over the country, and most of the lows, troughs, TCs will slide off to one side or the other. Dry and warm for another 3-4 weeks yet.

[RWood]

A lot of low cloud from here up towards the Taranaki Bight (I presume), not clearing as it did yesterday.

[jamie]

Hot here again today, 27.5 here. Havent seen it this dry in about 7 or 8 years. Its only going to get dryer too.
I have noticed that the models chage every day as well, but are consistant with a tropical low to move south, whether or not it affects NZ in the places that need it or affects NZ at all is another question. But it is looking promising for some rain atleast.

Another BBQ for dinner tonight, gotta love it

[NZstorm]

Airass over the North Island should warm up further this week so some hotter temps likely inland before that cooler southerly spreads across the country late week.

[Manukau heads obs]

latest ecmwf run has the TC moving right down onto the upper NI
but thats just one scenario!

[David]

latest ecmwf run has the TC moving right down onto the upper NI
but thats just one scenario!

Yes and the latest US 7-day model run on Weatherzone has it doing the same, earlier though. By looking at the scale it has rain totaling >100mm across Auckland and >150mm across Northland, with very tight isobars as well, an anticyclone SE of NZ at that time helping to cause blocking.

Metvuw now have this system impacting hard as well.
Ogimet models agree too, with widespread rain and wind for NI...
We'll have to hope this one eventuates

[spwill]

Yes, looking like damp easterlies to spread down from the north at the weekend.

Should be a sea breeze convergence line of cloud over Auckland this afternoon by the looks, current dewpoints are 15C, sunny, light winds.

[RWood]

With all this in mind I've been looking up some reports on the summer of 1955-56. That was in the middle of a long-running, strong La Nina. Northland and parts of BOP/Coromandel had had a wetter than average spring, but rainfall was near normal around Auckland. For December, much of Northland was very wet, especially around Whangarei, but again close to normal around Auckland, with most of the rain falling on one day (79mm at Albert Park, 46mm on 6th). January 1956 for NZ was the equal hottest month hitherto recorded (still the warmest ever for parts of the south). The north and east of Northland were wet (Te Paki 337mm, Kerikeri 238mm) along with some of BOP, much of the rain falling in thundery scenarios with localised daily falls exceeding 150mm at Kawerau and Rotoehu. Around Auckland the distribution was erratic (Albert Park 67mm, Oratia 190mm, Woodhill 60mm). In February an ex-TC brought a couple of wet days to most northern places, but the month's totals were quite variable again (132mm at Albert Park but a little below average in many parts). March was cool, dry and sunny.

Given the nature of some of the rainfalls, it would seem that quite a few areas would have been rather dry by the end of March, with summer downpours offset by hot conditions. Everything changed in April, with record falls in many places and a run of very wet months to follow.

[jamie]

looking more and more like a good dumping is on the way

[Manukau heads obs]

and yet Niwa was interviewed on TV1 2 nite, and said it would stay dry until March.....
new ECMWF run has the curent sub tropical low forming to the NNE of us, and which is driting SW, is what will give us needed rain...by this coming monday or so....then maybe a TC to follow it..? (but TC's are pretty unpredictable)

[Willoughby]

28.8C here in the city today; equalling my all time record.

Phew, bring on the relief already! Though early days in those GFS runs.. still quite a bit of disagreement between all the global models.. but it does look likely Northland will feel the brunt of a subtropical disturbance. Time for another thread?

[David]

Sure is warm today, I recorded the warmest day of summer here so far today, a maximum of 26.0C earlier this afternoon due to a SW breeze rather then the NE of the last several days. (previous warmest was 31 Dec 2007 with 25.9C).
Dropped back to 24Cat the moment, now that the wind has freshened up a bit. I don't think it'll get any higher than 26 today. Most other days this month have had the maximum temperature between 12pm to 2pm anyway.

[Vertigo]

and yet Niwa was interviewed on TV1 2 nite, and said it would stay dry until March.....
new ECMWF run has the curent sub tropical low forming to the NNE of us, and which is driting SW, is what will give us needed rain...by this coming monday or so....then maybe a TC to follow it..? (but TC's are pretty unpredictable)

metservice thinks the low wont turn out to be much...

A slow-moving trough lies northeast of the North Island. A low from the subtropics is likely to be absorbed by this trough and end up north of the country on Sunday bringing a slowly strengthening easterly flow and outbreaks of rain anywhere between Northland and northern Hawkes Bay. It is not yet clear whether the focus will be from Northland to Coromandel Peninsula or Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay but forecasters are keeping an eye on likely developments and advise people in these areas to keep up to date with weather forecasts.

[Inny Binny]

Metvuw now seem to have it going more to the east, then sliding west just north of the NI, with much lighter rain making landfall.

[jamie]

HOT... hot as again today. Must be about 29.

Been up in auckland and coming back south over the bombays the waikato looks more like the canty plains. Its just barren land with not a bit of green grass in sight. Quite a bit of dust in the air now too. Its amazing how dry it is getting so quickly.

[tgsnoopy]

I'm interested to see how hot it was today in Tauranga. I was working at the Mount, in the sun, wearing black dress trousers for my first day back at work.

If only I'd known I'd be working on a dental caravan on one of the hotter days of summer. I think I drank about 4 litres of water. Thank heavens for sun hats and sun block.

Still 28°C outside, 32°C inside according to my cheapie DSE In/Out thermometer.

[spwill]

Dewpoints have been at more comfortable levels through this sunny period ( last 5 days) though they were around 16 to 17C this afternoon. We will be back into more humid weather next week, 18 -20C dewpoints.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It would of been hot in inland areas of the BOP today plus places like Kawaerua,Kinleith where it would of been in the mid thirties.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

I'm interested to see how hot it was today in Tauranga.

Weather tonight had Tauranga peaking at 30 degrees. The Geyserland Observatory in Rtorua reported a high of 33 degrees this afternoon, and Pongakawa reaching 30.0 (it's record). Interesting that Auckland Airport still managed 27 today despite the fresh SW off the Manukau Harbour, higher than our 26 here even though the wind should in theory blow across warmer land before getting here.

I'm impressed with my new manual rain gauge (Nylex 1000) that I got about 11th Jan, tested its capacity to be ~275mm, and I put about 10.2mm into the tube yesterday to test how efficient it is at preventing evaporation - none of it had evaporated by the end of the day (just a little bit of condensation above the water level in the tube). Annoying thing is that it refuses to rain so I can compare it's accuracy with my automatic tipping bucket gauge.

Weather-wise, this 'golden summer' weather is very enjoyable, haven't managed to get sunburnt yet either.
This is our 5th day running of mainly sunny weather, and looking good tomorrow as well.
Average overnight lows this month currently at 15.5C here, and average maximums at 24.4C (same as last February).

To compare at Auckland Airport up to the 14th this month the average minimum and maximum are 16.6C and 24.5C respectively. At Whenuapai to the 14th the average minimum and maximum are 15.5C and 24.0C respectively.
Owairaka data is only availably to the 8th currently, interestingly on that day the maximum there was 28.3C.
Some cloudier wetter weather in the last two weeks should take our average minimum higher, probably 16C+ at most sites, maybe 17C+ at the Airport, and average highs are currently above average, so looking like overall it should almost certainly be a warmer January (like NIWA predicted).