Tropical Cyclone FUNA

[Willoughby]

10F has just been named by RSMC Nadi.

GALE WARNING 017 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/0801 UTC 2008 UTC.

CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14
DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 164 DECIMAL 8 EAST AT 160600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.4 SOUTH 164.8 EAST AT 160600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

MOST GLOBAL
MODELS[AVN/UKGC/US/ECMWF] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH ECMWF AND UK
MODELS DEEPENING THE SYSTEM EARLY AND MAINTAINING A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT.

LLCC IS STILL OBSCURED BY CONVECTION ALOFT. DVORAK BASED ON MET AND
PATTERN TYPE, THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.45 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.

Go go gadget goooo!

Good to finally have some strong concensus between the GFS and ECMWF on today's 00Z run, with both of the models progging a close encounter with NZ.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Watch out New Caledonia?

Haven't looked at the latest models yet tho' ???

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Manukau heads obs]

Could be all on by Monday/Tuesday
Bring it on
Been 11 years now since a visit !

[spwill]

Watch out New Caledonia?

It will miss New Caledonia as it is moving east from near Vanuatu but it is expected to turn south toward NZ -ECMWF brings it down this way.

[NZstorm]

Pity it may miss Norfolk Island or the Kermedecs observation sites.

It will bring an active warm front with lots of rain across NZ.

[Vertigo]

It will miss New Caledonia as it is moving east from near Vanuatu but it is expected to turn south toward NZ -ECMWF brings it down this way.

where are you viewing this models data? i cant find anywhere on the net to view south pacific ecmwf, or gfs for that matter.

[Willoughby]

It will miss New Caledonia as it is moving east from near Vanuatu but it is expected to turn south toward NZ -ECMWF brings it down this way.

where are you viewing this models data? i cant find anywhere on the net to view south pacific ecmwf, or gfs for that matter.

Hi, try http://ecmwf.decenturl.com/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind for EC, http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/ for the GFS

The northern islands of Vanuatu would be copping it right now... certainly is intensifying, Nadi in 48hrs have it forecast to reach sustained winds of 90 knots close to the centre, with gusts to 105 knots.

[jamie]

How do you pronounce FUNA?? Is it Foo na or few na?

[David]

Metservice are still unsure of what will happen at this stage, but still its looking almost certain like we'll get some good rain driven by very strong winds.

"A ridge of high pressure should bring mostly settled weather to the South Island over the weekend. A southeast airstream over the North Island on Saturday may turn northeasterly on Sunday.

A deep depression, ex Tropical Cyclone Funa, may be coming into the picture as soon as Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty as to the future movement of this system, and it may be slower. Anywhere in New Zealand, or nowhere, could be affected by severe gales and heavy rain from this system. At this stage, we have indicated on the chart a low risk of heavy rain and severe gales in Northland on Monday and Tuesday, and a low risk of just heavy rain for Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty.

There are some indications that the depression will pass west of Northland Monday night and then head southsoutheastwards towards central New Zealand after that. A low risk of severe gales and heavy rain is therefore indicated on the chart for Taranaki, Wellington and coastal Marlborough. People are advised to remain up to date with latest forecasts as the situation evolves."

[Manukau heads obs]

how about the name
FUN , A

[bjb]

Hi, I am new to the Forum.
Came across it when searching the name Funa.
I am a Kiwi living in Port Vila.

Cyclone Funa is currently crossing the largest Vanuatu island of Santo.
In the town of Luganville they are experiencing strong winds and rain.
Here in Port Vila we have rain bands with wing gusts of about 15kts from the east.

On the current tracks (JTWC, Fiji Met, Meteo.nc) the cyclone will pass to the east of us.
It's predicted track will take it between Vanuatu and Fiji, past New Caledonia and down toward NZ.
The models I have looked at however suggest it will weaken as it travels South.
I just hope the High in the Tasman does not hold it up our way.

Barry

[Manukau heads obs]

Hi
wow, look at that, first had reports of the TC, amazing, thanks for the post

I remember the remains of a TC passed to our west , way back in early 90's (I cant remember exactly what year), and the NNW wind we got on the coast here was 60 to 70 kts....and it was not forecast...I remember people phoning in to new talk ZB that day from Titirangi and Piha etc saying how they had things flying away (loose stuff in the section (trampolines, etc)
There was no rain, just a sheet of mid level cloud racing along!
It must have still had a tight center on it...which did not show up very well on the sat pictures (being warm), and it was moving quite fast too, and took everyone by surprise...
maybe other aucklanders remember it....
sorry for the off topic a bit!

[sw_windbow]

Gee I'd love Funa do come down the west side. It might even get down here. I expect an ex-cyclone crashing head-first into the Nelson/Tasman catchment would create biblical flooding. I will pray for it tonight.

[Michael]

All is really required is some warm soaking frontal rain to freshen up the gardens,not a life dangering event to hope for.

[Ryan Thomas]

I want it to come to Christchurch.. Missed last time we had heavy rain due to the fact I was on a school trip.. And last time we had lotsa wind was ages ago

[Inny Binny]

A cyclone to come to Christchurch?

No, we might get a bit of rain from the left-overs, anything could happen with something this unpredictable, but the whole thing could also completely veer away from it's estimated course.

I wouldn't be getting hopes too high yet for the NI even, though it looks pretty good...getting your hopes up never results in anything good anyway, look at the winter of 2007.

[NZstorm]

Looking like just about the whole country will get some rain from the weakening remains of Funa. The low looks to pass west of Northland on Monday, hopefully not too far west otherwise the heaviest rainfall will be dumped at sea rather than on us. We need it here! The low then crosses central NZ Monday night.

[Manukau heads obs]

for rain potential here, I think its better to go to the west (but not too far west) of us

you can check its progress here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... pfile.html

has got a move on

[jrj]

Or here:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

[NZstorm]

Yes, a passage to our west means we get on onshore NE without sheltering and we should get the heavy rain. But the ECMRF is taking the low possibly too far west of Auckland, I hope its wrong. We will still catch a warm front so rain does look assured.

[bjb]

Cyclone Funa has passed through Vanuatu with only minor impact.

The northern islands had it pass over them yesterday, but only as a Category 1.
By the time it intensified overnight, down to 968hPa, it was well offshore (200km).
The southern islands had heavy rain and gale force winds overnight.
Also there is a heavy swell and a small sea surge.
There has been localised flooding and small trees brought down.

The GFS model suggests it will move towards NZ, but weaken as it does so.
(Northland might be in for some more flooding early next week, just after they cleaned up from last year).

Barry

[spwill]

Cyclone Funa has passed through Vanuatu with only minor impact

I see it is a category 3 Cyclone now so lucky it has taken a path away from the Islands.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking forward to the rainfall from it when the remains do pass over, hope not too much of it is out to sea.
These systems are possibly the best for rainfall here rather than depending on the S/SW changes which seem to bring nothing much at all under a La Nina regime.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

It will be interesting to see what happens when it crosses the NI, as it could well intensify even more before hitting NZ.
We dont think about weakoning , well for us weather enthusiasts we want something of interest.
Looks like at this stage a brief period of steady rain could fall overnight in the early hours of Tuesday here, unless the heavier falls come more onshore.
Cheers
Jason.

[Manukau heads obs]

cant see it intensifying....just reorganising into a rain dpression (with the rain bands all in one quarter only)
only way it would intensify again if it were to get an injection of cold air (cold front) or have a upper level trough run into it