North Island drought :(

[C-Nimbus]

Well I may as well point out the obvious.....i really believe the NI is in trouble at the moment and we are on the verge of a serious drought.

I have flown over the NI a couple of times in the last week and the WHOLE island is brown, and I mean canterbury brown.

Also, with forcasters suggesting no serious rain until April ( ) then this whole shabbang is concerning.

Has anyone also noticed that the NI has been convectively dead over summer? I can just about count the days on one hand that T/Cu have formed over Auckland, let alone Cb's

Thoughts anyone.....esp farmers??

[TonyT]

Also, with forcasters suggesting no serious rain until April ( ) then this whole shabbang is concerning.

We are expecting plenty of opportunities for rainfall in the North Island in the second half of February, and regular rains through March. However, the South Island is a different story...

[TokWW]

That's good to hear Tony - its the driest I have known it in the central plateau for perhaps 25 years - since I have lived here - although that is subjective with no data to back it up - to have it this dry before end of January and this hot with continuous clear skies (misty this morning, but it will hit 30ºC today I'm sure) with the prevailing light scattered clouds. I wish I had my solar sensor working!!

[spwill]

I'm in Qeenstown at the moment and the landscape here is quite green compared to the Auckland area , not usually the case.

[jamie]

We havnt had real rain since december 20th and even that was isolated as it was a convective shower. We have had 11mm since december 20th. NOT GOOD!
I cant get over the heat, when was the last time Hamilton had so many days of 30+ or so many parts of the North Island.

Farming point of view we are now milking once a day even though the somatic cell count is well above what is accepted, so the hunt is on for the bad cows. Starting to green feed the maize on Friday (Dad refuses to fed silage in January).

There is a crop down the raod that looks more like it is late March early April, that is used for grain purposes. So i can amagine they would be cutting the whole thing very shortly or they wont have a crop from that paddok at all. Other crops in the area have patches that are dying but not whole paddocks.

I think Hamilton is going to record only 6 or 7% of its normal January rainfall

Was this drought forcast? If i remember right we were told normal to slightly below normal rainfall here with Northland and Bay of Plenty expecting normal to above normal rainfall.

[David]

I'm picking that we should reach 28 to 29 here this afternoon, already 27C.
edit 1.25: well it has gone very clouded over for the last 20 to 30 minutes, we reached 28, sadly if had stayed sunny we would have rocketed to 29-30 and I would have had myself a new record, but now its dropped 3 degrees to 25

[David]

Nearly 3pm and its still cloudy and dull, for over 2 hours now...I was in a way excited that it had reached 28 degrees by midday, I thought we'll reach 30 today! but no
Maybe it will be sunny tomorrow? It looks like it could get very hot tomorrow with only light winds. I would like to record a 30 degree day. Maybe in February if otherwise.

[Brassnz]

Looks like that Auckland cloud is all out to the east - fine, sunny and warm in Takapuna, and it appears clear over the city and out west.

[Michael]

I would like to record a 30 degree day. Maybe in February if otherwise.

We wont get it till we get a N or a NNW and that day when the ground isnt wet.

[TokWW]

Another high over 30deg = 31.8ºC and now down to 28.8. Clouds are larger but still well spaced. Westerly nearly all day. DP at 12.7 - and that was about our low last night , ah yes, 12.6deg. Its hardly moved. as it was foggy this morning and about 92% Rh recorded although the La Crosse units are not good at high humidity.

[RWood]

.

I think Hamilton is going to record only 6 or 7% of its normal January rainfall

Was this drought forcast? If i remember right we were told normal to slightly below normal rainfall here with Northland and Bay of Plenty expecting normal to above normal rainfall.

The point has been made several times in the past - the extreme ends of the distribution cannot and will not be forecast - if the day ever comes when that happens, it will be from a vastly greater knowledge and computing sophistication than is available now.

[NZstorm]

A mainly clear day over central AK, didn't get David's cloud here. Rickys Grey Lynn site recorded 28.6C.
Dps upto 18C.

[TokWW]

You are correct Rupert - Statistics tells us when working with a std distribution, to disregard events outside the 2 sigma level (95%) and reduce the population by that/those event(s) and re-run the statistics again. However, this may be a skewed distribution but the same would apply. The path of the latest Funa cyclone had everyone puzzled as well, and the current intense low travelling over the Chathams would have been hard to predict even a week out.

Seasonal variations will occur and some are not easily predicted down to 3 week periods anyway - this may just be a minor deviation from the overall prediction for a damp first three months for the N and NE of NI.

Tokoroa again with todays national large town/city high temp of 31ºC I recorded a high of 33.1 with FARS running and over grass. Perhaps we do get more highs than Kawerau...

[Ryan Thomas]

What the..? North Canterbury drought on 1 News one of the farmers said its been getting up to 42 degrees... Clearly hasn't been recorded right

[David]

A mainly clear day over central AK, didn't get David's cloud here. Rickys Grey Lynn site recorded 28.6C.
Dps upto 18C.

Yes I did notice it was clear to my west, but there was a grey cloud line overhead (blotting out the sun) for 2 hours like I said, I think it must have been some weak convergence line perhaps, because as the wind tended SW about 4pm the cloud band shifted off to the east. More cloud to the W/NW area now though. Do you think we'll be having another hot one tomorrow?

[TokWW]

Over drought farmland 35km from the coast, or in the basin lands in further, they have a distinctly different climate to ChCh close to the coast or built up areas with trees and moisture around. There may be an exaggeration there or from a poorly installed temperature recording device. Our friend in Oamaru may offer his comments?

Graeme

[melja]

What the..? North Canterbury drought on 1 News one of the farmers said its been getting up to 42 degrees... Clearly hasn't been recorded right

yes some farmers i know in inland canty have told me of these temps, could be corect in some inland basins as we have had 36 here.

[Storm Struck]

Yes inland areas can get some quite hot temperatures due to some sheltering, even the locals in Hanmer springs always say they get about 2-3 days per summer season of inbetween 40-43C.
This drought is becoming a major concern now here, and with days like today where the drizzle teases the top of the ground it doesnt make any difference.
What was canterburys longest and worst drought? I can remember other years of droughts but i am pretty sure we had atleast a few good splashes within a month not nothing at all.
8mm of rain in 2 months by the end of tomorrow .
If it keeps up we may be facing water restrictions even though inland areas already have that problem.
Cheers
Jason.

[tich]

Travelling through North Canterbury this afternoon, it certainly looks very dry.

[TonyT]

For Chch, the lowest 2 month total is 12.3mm in September and October 1988. Other periods to be below 15mm for two months are Sept/Oct 1910, Mar/Apr 1864, Feb/Mar 1969, and Jan/Feb 1908.

But since Chch recorded 54mm for December, this Dec/Jan wont be featuring in the record books. (BTW, where did all that rain come from for the city? You dont need to go too far out to get much lower Dec 07 totals).

The lowest 3 monthly total was 21.4mm Feb-Apr 2001.

The lowest 6 monthly figure (probably a better indicator of longer term drought) was 119mm for the July to December period in 1988. The 87/88 drought has a number of record or near record dry periods.

I'd expect a little more rain to come in over the next 2 weeks or so, then back to dry again in the second half of Feb.

[ricky]

Today broke a few station records here in Grey Lynn (since 2003)...

Record Warmest January Temperature 28.6°C (- Interestingly the 13th was also my coldest Jan temp! 12.8°C )
Record Warmest day 6am - 6pm 24.8°C
Record high heat index of over 39°C ! no wonder I was exhausted working outside
and only 0.8°C shy of my all time maximum temperature of 29.4°C 22 March 2005

[David]

Interesting stats Ricky, your record 29.4C on 22 Mar 2005 - only reached roughly 26 here that day. Also your record low January temperature, I would have thought that record would have been on 1 January 2007. The lowest temperature here this month is 11.5C, but 1 Jan 2007 saw a minimum of 7.2C here (followed by a low of 7.9C on the 2nd). I can believe your heat index of 39! It was stinking hot in the sun!

[melja]

Yes inland areas can get some quite hot temperatures due to some sheltering, even the locals in Hanmer springs always say they get about 2-3 days per summer season of inbetween 40-43C.
This drought is becoming a major concern now here, and with days like today where the drizzle teases the top of the ground it doesnt make any difference.
What was canterburys longest and worst drought? I can remember other years of droughts but i am pretty sure we had atleast a few good splashes within a month not nothing at all.
8mm of rain in 2 months by the end of tomorrow .
If it keeps up we may be facing water restrictions even though inland areas already have that problem.
Cheers
Jason.

Rangiora just went on level 1 (watering on odd and even days) water restrictions today along with most areas between the waimak and oxford.

[ricky]

Interesting stats Ricky, your record 29.4C on 22 Mar 2005 - only reached roughly 26 here that day. Also your record low January temperature, I would have thought that record would have been on 1 January 2007. The lowest temperature here this month is 11.5C, but 1 Jan 2007 saw a minimum of 7.2C here (followed by a low of 7.9C on the 2nd).

Big difference here just having a quick look for 1st and 2nd I had DPs around 14C and min almost 17C .. I was away up North at the time

[David]

I do mean Jan 2007 Ricky, your station had a low of 10.0C on that day (according to the daily report). I thought you meant that the low of 12.8 this January was your lowest recorded January temperature of any January, not just 2008's.

Well its looking to be another scorcher afternoon, we have light winds and sun/high cloud with temperature at 20C after a low of 18.8C. Possibly 28 again?