Possible thunderstorms 10-12 Feb

[RWood]

Good activity for about an hour with some very heavy showers. My watering trick worked.

[Manukau heads obs]

another front is developing in the tasman, heading towards the NI for this afternoon, should be CB's

[spwill]

some drizzle but no noise and sparks

Needed much better day time heating yesterday but often with our very high dewpoints low cloud can be slow to shift.

[Vertigo]

yes, metservice has a high risk for much of the north island

The second front moves over the North Island during Monday afternoon and evening. This front, accompanied by daytime heating, is expected to produce widespread heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern half of the North Island, with rain rates of 10-25mm/hr and small hail possible. A third front with a southerly change moves up the east coast of the South Island during the afternoon and evening. As southerlies converge with pre-existing northwesterlies, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms forming in North Otago and over the Canterbury Plains and foothills and up the Kaikoura Coast, with rainfall intensities of 10-20mm/hr possible. A significant cooling at upper levels during the evening results in a moderate risk of thunderstorms over the upper South Island and southwest of the North Island.

fingers crossed.

[gllitz]

Most recent GFS showing some even BETTER numbers for thunder this arvo/evening for ChCh...see attached.
Will be interesting to watch thru the day and I will be taking the camera to work 2day...
Thoughts?

Cheers,
Glenn

[NZstorm]

Nice lightning photo. Yes, looks to be some good thunderstorm chances across the country today from Canterbury to Northland but I'm thinking the best chances are further south of here where the colder upper air gets in this afternoon.

[Pelorus Pete]

Yes – we had a spectacular awakening just b4 5am. L & T was out to the East of us. Had short heavy bouts of rain, got 16mm yesterday and now another 27mm th5s 06rn5ng and still more to come. So all smiles here finally. Hopefully will have drowned a few hundred Crickets

[Pelorus Pete]

th5s 06rn5ng -- meant to be "this morning" bloody Num-Lock key
Time for another laptop - some of my number keys have stopped working

[TokWW]

th5s 06rn5ng -- meant to be "this morning" bloody Num-Lock key
Time for another laptop - some of my number keys have stopped working

Bashing it won't help either but if its your head you're bashing then yes, that may help!!

My KB is on my lap, the monitor is on top of the upright freezer I sit in front of, mouse on my r leg... and I have kb problems and I think Alzheimers is setting in early too. Not all to be blamed on equipment in my case... I frequently have to "repair" my typos...

Sth Waikato - Low ovc and drizzle - not enough to help the farmers yet, slight breeze, 17.7 / 16.6 so still thick and muggy.

[jamie]

Looking very good for thunderstorms today.

Canty even geting severe ones.

Lets hope more day time heating will be in place today.

[gllitz]

Looking very good for thunderstorms today.

Canty even geting severe ones.

Lets hope more day time heating will be in place today.

[Vertigo]

im at work now, and can see a couple of cu's firing up already. i hope this doesnt mean a weak cap.

[NZstorm]

If we get any thunder in Waikato or Auckland it will come as a blow up on the frontal boundary later this afternoon. Ithink there is a reasonable chance of this happening.

Tuesday looks a 'high risk' for the NI I think.

[Razor]

Keep it away from Hamilton please. I want to watch the cricket tomorrow

[Andrew Massie]

Fencepost not picking thunder for Canterbury... I'm agreeing with that at this stage. Ever hopeful, of course!

[NZstorm]

not picking thunder for Canterbury

There is a thunder risk but there will need to be some good daytime heating and a sea breeze type NE kick in.

[mikestormchaser]

hello, finally hearing some decent action on the cards for Canterbury today i haven't posted much on here lately due to the fact that we haven't been getting anything except boring NE sea breezes, but if we can get something out of this run that would be awesome!
Conditions feeling good though over the city, its quite humid and mild also abit of sun out coooome on!!

chers

[NZstorm]

Oops, that Canterbury southerly wind shift may come in too early. Is it through Timaru already?

[mikestormchaser]

Not as far as I know NZstorm suns out here so is very hot now, so that daytime heating wont become an issue its just the NE breeze we need now id say!
Theres a very nice towering cu i can see right down south from here now!

[Andrew Massie]

As far as I can see, the southerly's hasn't hit Dunedin yet, but has Invercargill.

[jamie]

Timaru has a southerly wind but its temp isnt dropping so im confused

Hot and sticky day here again.. hotter today than yesturday.

[gllitz]

Just looking at temps/dew points around ChCh at the moment...range from 26-27C and dew points in the mid-teens...the sun is out now and warming things up nicely...can see some rather large buildups off to the W/SW from here in Addington.

Cheers,
Glenn

EDIT: and the CAPE numbers haven't changed much either...still looking mid-500s or so at peak...which I can't remember when they were that high...at least, not in the last year or two, for sure.
Here's hoping.

[gllitz]

Fencepost not picking thunder for Canterbury... I'm agreeing with that at this stage. Ever hopeful, of course!

Hmmm...I'm interested (from a learning and experience perspective, please...I am NOT trolling...) to find out why the difference b/w the two forecasts?

[Razor]

Well I'm with the Metservice. Conditions look PERFECT for a storm today. Warm, sunny, light NE feeding into some very interesting cloud formations that are sarting to bubble away nicely.

Lets go!

[Weather Watcher]

Thunderstorms currently occurring about inland South Canterbury, North Otago and eastern parts of Central Otago.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also now been issued for Canterbury....

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... stormwatch