When's it going to rain?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 07/04/2008 08:25

Are you serious? Far out, that is amazing

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 07/04/2008 08:31

Looking at the rain radars from overnight it looks like a stationary front, stalled over a line between ChCh and north Canterbury?

Don't have a rain gauge at my place but I'd say there was at least 10mm in the hour before midnight before I nodded off to sleep

Not often you see unexpected events as major as Tony's with modern forecasting!

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 07/04/2008 08:57

Stationary (more or less) fronts have delivered quite a lot of rain here of late. About 95mm over 29-30 March, and another 30mm on Saturday. More than we really needed. Bit of a relief to be seeing a following southerly that looks to be brightening the skies quicker than the forecast implied (I hope).

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 07/04/2008 10:19

MS are going to need to review their max temp for auckland today i think. Already 23 and that is the max they have. Just a slight breeze at the moment. I was sitting outside in the sun and started sweating straight away.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 07/04/2008 10:44

Out on Banks Peninsula, there was probably only some light drizzle overnight. (as judged from dampness of ground) It seems that heavy rain only hit northern parts of Chch and northwards, as Hillmorton recorded nothing overnight. Sounds like a convergence zone maybe.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 07/04/2008 10:51

Very unusal patter for ChCh. Steady rain here in riccarton for the past hour again. Still nothing in Jeffs guage at hilmorton though?

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Mon 07/04/2008 12:49

j--me--h wrote:MS are going to need to review their max temp for auckland today i think. Already 23 and that is the max they have. Just a slight breeze at the moment. I was sitting outside in the sun and started sweating straight away.

convection flaring up today, big single drops hitting my windshield as i went to get wendys

daytime heating is helping push those clouds up.

Myself · Unread post by **Myself** » Mon 07/04/2008 14:50

j--me--h wrote:MS are going to need to review their max temp for auckland today i think. Already 23 and that is the max they have. Just a slight breeze at the moment. I was sitting outside in the sun and started sweating straight away.

That strikes me as an overly simplistic way of looking at it.
If you go by the airport then it's hit 22C today.
From what I can tell the forecast was not reviewed and it seems to have panned out quite well.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 07/04/2008 15:49

Razor wrote:60mm!!!!

Wow I'd love to see some comment from the Metservice on this one then, thats a major event there Tony

Coastal Marlborough and Canterbury
Cloudy with patches of drizzle.

I wouldn't have thought that such a local event could be classified as serious...judging by the data I can find none of the other Christchurch stations have recorded anywhere near TonyT's amount.
And how could something so local be accurately forecast - even if 'some heavy showers' had been forecast, I think anyone would still be surprised with a rain total like 60mm.

Still, it's unusual event, and TonyT got lucky!

Gary McConnochie · Unread post by **Gary McConnochie** » Mon 07/04/2008 16:38

Nothing here in Rolleston today, actually blue sky to our south but very dark to the north.

1 mm overnight.

Gary

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 07/04/2008 16:47

Periods of drizzle and rain here in Central ChCh all day.

I'd be interested to know how much more Tony T has had up that way today. No wind to speak of.

Pelorus Pete · Unread post by **Pelorus Pete** » Mon 07/04/2008 17:52

SE with light patches of rain for us - not a usual occurrence for here to have rain from that direction. We had 30mm on Saturday, so want sunshine again please ???

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 07/04/2008 17:59

Myself wrote:
j--me--h wrote:MS are going to need to review their max temp for auckland today i think. Already 23 and that is the max they have. Just a slight breeze at the moment. I was sitting outside in the sun and started sweating straight away.
That strikes me as an overly simplistic way of looking at it.
If you go by the airport then it's hit 22C today.
From what I can tell the forecast was not reviewed and it seems to have panned out quite well.

Yes my bad. They did it just right. At about 2pm high cloud thikened up keeping the temp at its high of 24 here.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 07/04/2008 18:04

Given cooler air aloft I think 24C is all we were gonna get today. Nice to see the t/cu building up with distant afternoon showers to SE.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 07/04/2008 19:36

We finished with 62mm. Most of that fell between 5am and 7am this morning. Just light drizzly stuff off and on during the morning, dry this afternoon. There were a few brief torrential falls during the night (following on from the couple I mentioned last evening), then a sustained period of heavy rain before dawn. I had to drive into Chch at 9am, and while it was 14deg here it was only 10 deg down the road in Woodend, both places under heavy cloud and with little wind - so I think there was probably a significant temperature gradient in there contributing to it all. Just a shame I didnt forecast it!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 07/04/2008 22:06

I had some steady rain falling last night at around 9pm on and off all night from there, nothing torrential though.
Definatly isolated with about half a km of heavy light rain, drizzle driving into work this morning rather large drops though too.
Most of the wet stuff will be moving out by now for the week until perhaps the weekend.
Cheers
Jason.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 08/04/2008 10:10

Bucketing down straight down here about an hour though easing up now.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 08/04/2008 16:17

Im seeing the possibility of a bit of tropical rain late next week maby, fingers crossed. Long way away. Could be a late TC. But im probably jumping the gun here.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 09/04/2008 06:48

oh no, looks like the weekend of the 20th will be a big NE blow and heavy heavy rain over the upper NI...its the wifes 40th birthday and we are heading up to the far north for a weekend away from the kids.....might be inside the whole weekend!!
of all the weekends.......
but the rain is badly needed if it can get down into the Auckland/Waikato area (hopefully)

Manukau heads obs · Wed 09/04/2008 12:46

ok, latest ecmwf shows that the next low from the north is going to slowly move south and be all the way through by the start of the school holidays, with a westerly flow left...
on its way through, there should be good rain from the NE over the dry areas of the NI next week hopefully

TokWW · Unread post by **TokWW** » Wed 09/04/2008 14:53

Hmmm, we're heading south in front of it then, going to Masterton for mother's 80th and a book launch. I'll make sure the PC is happy before I leave...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 09/04/2008 20:58

This Anticyclone should slow the approach of a Tasman Low next week allowing for some good falls of rain hopefully over Auckland. Looks promising this far out.spwill

\

Certainly for Northland, flood producing rain up there. Thats based on slow movement of the front and good moisture advection onto the province.
But hey, we are still looking days out so the prognosis can change.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 10/04/2008 06:02

good
latest ecmwf has the low passing right over the Auckland area, with, yes, a big moisture feed
surely we gota get the rain this time

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