Lows and cool change, Apr 26 - May 3

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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

with a DP of 17 and a frontal zone right over us and a low moving closer in from the tasman (which has a developing cold front with it) and a strong jetstream just to our north, I would not discount heavy rain to develop just yet
just need a bit more wind convergence to occur (the approaching low with a more Northerly wind should help with that)
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NZstorm
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Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland

Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZstorm »

The warm front has thus far failed to light up I doubt it will now. There may be a low chance of an afternoon cb popping up over heated land in behind the front over Northland/Auckland but there looks to be good cloud cover to prevent this.
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

good rain here at the moment, bit of a narrow shower line, looks like what is the front, coming across the auckland area now
(rain is heavier (its very dense) than what the rain radar seems to show)
(maybe below the radar beam too (warm fronts are like that))
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i see its 23.5oC at kerikeri now ....lots of warm most air behind this warm front...
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Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
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Paul Mallinson
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

David wrote:Geez what was MS thinking! They said persistent rain overnight and some heavy rain for this morning, and there was 1mm overnight - and only NOW it gets changed to a few showers. .......:)
Well I guess it just shows how complex weather forecasting can be, doesn't it?

Paul
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NZstorm
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes Brian, I have noticed the rising temps over Northland also. A positive sign for afternoon convection.
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TonyT
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by TonyT »

Paul Mallinson wrote:
David wrote:Geez what was MS thinking! They said persistent rain overnight and some heavy rain for this morning, and there was 1mm overnight - and only NOW it gets changed to a few showers. .......:)
Well I guess it just shows how complex weather forecasting can be, doesn't it?

Paul
=D>
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NZstorm
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZstorm »

dewpoint of 19C and LI -4.3 for Auckland tomorrow.
Bingo, thats exactly what we've got but the air is capped by warmer layers in the lower atmos. There would have to be very good forcing to get thunder today. Hence chances look to stay low for today.
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gopolks
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by gopolks »

I guess its going to rain on Wednesday.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... zsi&tim=84
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks to be a shower line developing just to the NW of the auckland area....perfect :)
a bit of sun breaking through around the area in places....we might get lucky and have something blow up right on our doorstep :)

(getting depsparate for action,LOL)

ps., we are going on a bus trip to cape reinga with the kids on tuesday...might not be the best day for it huh...
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

heavy rain sliding onto us here now :)
update:
a nice 5 mm from that :)
you can see the grass growing
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NZstorm
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZstorm »

Some very nice fisty T/cu visible through the gaps of the low stratus to NW and S.
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NZstorm
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZstorm »

I guess its going to rain on Wednesday.
Snow down to 300 or 400m thursday from Southland to Canterbury. Possible thunder/hail also by the looks.
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

what it looks like from behind :)
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Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Location: Raukapuka Geraldine

Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZstorm wrote:
I guess its going to rain on Wednesday.
Snow down to 300 or 400m thursday from Southland to Canterbury. Possible thunder/hail also by the looks.

What and see [-X

JohnGaul
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

loosing light and a big of fog around, but check out this inflow cloud leading into a nice CB thruster :)
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Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
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Vertigo
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Vertigo »

hope you guys are right, MS isnt picking tomorrow for anything much.
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spwill
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by spwill »

A Thunderstorm ( weak) over South Auckland this evening, part of a shower line that crossed much of Ak late afternoon with isolated heavy showers.
Photo shows Cb cloud over Ak
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Ryan Thomas
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

How is Gores maximum 10 and minimum 12? Silly metservice! Should just refer to it as overnight..
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

early wedensday might be the big day for the NI instead of Tuesday, according to the latest GFS run?
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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Ryan Thomas wrote:How is Gores maximum 10 and minimum 12? Silly metservice! Should just refer to it as overnight..

Yes. I noticed that too. It means that todays maximum of 10ºC will succumb to tomorrows minimum of 12ºC when it gets up to 19ºC there tomorrow.

JohnGaul
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David
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by David »

Dense fog moving across Howick east, not here yet. Looks as if it all coming in across the east coast - interestingly its at the airport as well. :)
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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

David wrote:Dense fog moving across Howick east, not here yet. Looks as if it all coming in across the east coast - interestingly its at the airport as well. :)
I'm sorry, I think you may have the wrong topic here :-k #-o
JohnGaul
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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

???



looks like the latest gfs has it back to being Tuesday the big day
you can see whats coming now, off Brisbane, has developed quickly overnight with the trough moving into the area from NSW
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Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
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Ryan Thomas
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Re: Start of May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

19 degrees at 6am in Christchurch on metservice site.. Jeffs says 17.4 so what kind of warming will we have today???
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