Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

[03Stormchaser]

Having a quick look at the latest gfs model run for chch, still looks like there will be a some what decent amount of rain from lunch sunday over night thru monday. Will be bitterly cold sunday night!

[Gary Roberts]

It'll be interesting to see if MS's heavy snow warning for South canterbury and the Eastern Ranges overnight is proved accurate. I watch with interest!

[Lawrence]

MetService has changed from its earlier long-range outlook - now Canterbury should be mostly fine on Sunday and Monday; obviously no secondary low expected to form to the east.

Bugger! I was hoping for that low to eventuate,all my hopes were on that one

[03Stormchaser]

MetService has changed from its earlier long-range outlook - now Canterbury should be mostly fine on Sunday and Monday; obviously no secondary low expected to form to the east.

Bugger! I was hoping for that low to eventuate,all my hopes were on that one

Just becasue metservice say something doesnt mean that they will be right. Sunday/Monday is 3/4 days out!

[Inny Binny]

Well, Blue Skies disagree with Metservice.

http://www.crt.co.nz/index.pasp?pageid=67

[jamie]

I have never been able to work out what E.T means/ stands for on the blue skies forcastes. Its baffled me for years. Can anyone fill me in on it? Its probably something really obvious.

[Storm Struck]

Yes that surprised me about MS how can you forecast fine weather when most of the models indicate a quite significant amount of moisure over Canterbury. .
I see blue skies have 50-100mm possible at this stage i can certainly see the possibilty there, and if this system progs out the way it is going for sunday,monday usually by the time we get closer some models can indicate even colder air which could bring snow levels down .
But we will see as the next few days progress.
A rather nice mild day today up to 18.3C with high cloud and a fresh breezy N-NE wind, also was abit of overnight rain heard it pattering on the roof at 4am.
Cheers
Jason.

[Inny Binny]

have never been able to work out what E.T means/ stands for on the blue skies forcastes. Its baffled me for years. Can anyone fill me in on it? Its probably something really obvious.

Same here. I've tried to look it up, but found nothing.

[gllitz]

I have never been able to work out what E.T means/ stands for on the blue skies forcastes. Its baffled me for years. Can anyone fill me in on it? Its probably something really obvious.

Correct me if I am wrong, please, but I believe it is for "Evapotranspiration"...how much water will be "sucked out" of the ground/environment and made into water vapour...really important stuff for farmers, I would imagine...but then again, the "E.T." may stand for something else???

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evapotranspiration

[Inny Binny]

OH! That would make a lot of sense, thanks.

It wasn't something really obscure then.

[TonyT]

Yes, ET is a common abbreviation for evapo-transpiration (which wouldnt fit in the column spelt out in full!). Its a guide as to how much soil moisture will be lost to the air.

[TonyT]

Latest GFS run has reduced the amount of rain forecast for Canterbury for Sunday/Monday, but made it colder.

[Cameo1]

What are our chances for lightning tonight/tomorrow up here guys?

[Manukau heads obs]

not as good as northland!
problem is, the low is going to roll over the top of the auckland area (again)

there is a lightning active CB west of northland, moving SSE....which is in our direction

[Inny Binny]

Look at that! All the possible warning flags are up on Metservice.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yeah! It looks as though the secondary front wont eventuate now with the low/trough following the direction now of it's predocessor.
An elongated but short, disturbed Sw flow should now cover us before the next anticyclone moves over us about Wednesday -trying to get up to 1030hPa - and then it looks like a big polar blast after this one, depending how it batters up against the high.
This however should move the high off to the east, later next week.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[jamie]

Could easily get a lightning display tonight. This front is sharpening up and lighting up too. Just waiting on the 11pm radar. Sat loop shows the whole system intensifying. Im expecting to see a nice red blob in the front NNE of the Bay of Islands with a nice cluster of lightning being detected there right now.

[jamie]

yup looking really nice now. Might have to go to sleep for a couple of hours and then get up to see how its looking.

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like the first front weakended, but the second front, over northland east coast, is set to slide down onto the auckland area this morning, and is lightning active
my boltec is tracking the strikes too close though for some reason

[ricky]

there was some lightning over the gulf this morning as the line stayed quite active over the warmer water

[Manukau heads obs]

its weakened now like that first front, as it moves away from a supportive environment I guess

[Manukau heads obs]

hummm, the front either has re energised now...or was just that it was passing over the rain radar station....

[Gary Roberts]

Drizzly moisture here in the south. It's possible that light snow fell on the tops but I'd say it won't have been much, if any, as it's far too warm.

[ricky]

very heavy looking line of showers moving across the North Shore now.. and some lightning detected! stand by

[jamie]

hek this has some rain and wind in it.