Cold Snap For late May

[David]

I see metservice have changed our forecast from rain rain and more rain in the next week to just a few showers
Yet several of the models still have decent amounts of rain falling in the North Island?

[gopolks]

At least you guys get some showers, we get the worst weather of all, drizzle.

[Inny Binny]

And look at MetService's brief forecast:

Today: Occasional rain
Tomorrow: Occasional rain
Sat: Showers
Sun: Showers
Mon: Showers
Tues: Showers

Well, I hope it doesn't stay drizzly like this.

[gllitz]

We go thru this EVERY year, it would seem...let's face it folks....the June 12th 2006 event was a ONCE (MAYBE TWICE) IN A LIFETIME EVENT! It JUST DOESN'T SNOW VERY MUCH HERE IN CHCH!! And it is a VERY unrealistic (borderline delusional) expectation to think it will happen with each potential cold outbreak we get....Even the numbers have NEVER been good for sea level snow with this event...not that you can always trust numbers, but they are a PRETTY GOOD indicator, I find, for 2-3 days out...If you want snow, move to the mountains! Or, wait for this system to pass and go for a drive up to Castle Hill/Arthur's Pass.....I've learned my lesson over the past few years....enough of my ranting, I will now be at harmony with everyone in this forum
(...except for Gary...he's a bit dodgy....I kid, I kid!)

[gopolks]

Very true, Gllitz, but for me personally I would like a weather pattern that doesn't turn into drizzle all the time.

If they forcast showers, we get drizzle, if they forcast rain, we get drizzle, if they forcast wintry showers, we get drizzle.

I just find all quite boring, sure it may be too much to wish for snow down to sea level, but can we lay off the girly drizzle and get some real man rain, thats not to much to ask.

[Inny Binny]

I doubt anyone here expects it to snow in Chch.

And for a good reason.

[gopolks]

True, how about some sleet though, or hard ass rain, or some lightning and thunder.

Drizzle drives me nuts.

[Gary Roberts]

Well, we didn't get anything worth talking about this time around but maybe next month will be better.

[03Stormchaser]

Looks like the fencepost forecast hasnt been up dated fpr couple days, anyone else see that??
or Is it that my cookies need deleting.

[gopolks]

Im getting a update at 919am 22nd, (Today)

[Gary Roberts]

We go thru this EVERY year, it would seem...

Yep.

...let's face it folks....the June 12th 2006 event was a ONCE (MAYBE TWICE) IN A LIFETIME EVENT! It JUST DOESN'T SNOW VERY MUCH HERE IN CHCH!! And it is a VERY unrealistic (borderline delusional) expectation to think it will happen with each potential cold outbreak we get....Even the numbers have NEVER been good for sea level snow with this event...not that you can always trust numbers, but they are a PRETTY GOOD indicator, I find, for 2-3 days out...

Anybody have historical figures for Christchurch snow? How much impact has GCC had on those data?

...If you want snow, move to the mountains!

That used to be good advice back before the 2000s. Even the mountains see a lot less snow now, compared to Ye Olden Days. It looks like high summer in the Main Divide right now. Back in the 1990s, access to my site was always impeded by heavy snow, between late May to October. That hasn't happened since 2003. Even the snow of 2006 didn't last long enough to cause a problem.

...enough of my ranting, I will now be at harmony with everyone in this forum (...except for Gary...he's a bit dodgy....I kid, I kid!)

Yes, that's true, I am. Very dodgy.

[tich]

June 2006 wasn't an exceptional snow event in Chch city - no worse than September the year before. (and some eastern parts got no snow) Though not far out into the plains it got exceptionally heavy.
Like I said before, May snow in Chch is very rare, settling only about once every 20-30 years.

[Razor]

Cripes some people here are hard to please!

[gopolks]

I guess thats true, but arent ya sick of drizzly winters.

Oh well, roll on June, july, august and the start of September.

[mikestormchaser]

We go thru this EVERY year, it would seem...let's face it folks....the June 12th 2006 event was a ONCE (MAYBE TWICE) IN A LIFETIME EVENT! It JUST DOESN'T SNOW VERY MUCH HERE IN CHCH!! And it is a VERY unrealistic (borderline delusional) expectation to think it will happen with each potential cold outbreak we get....Even the numbers have NEVER been good for sea level snow with this event...not that you can always trust numbers, but they are a PRETTY GOOD indicator, I find, for 2-3 days out...If you want snow, move to the mountains! Or, wait for this system to pass and go for a drive up to Castle Hill/Arthur's Pass.....I've learned my lesson over the past few years....enough of my ranting, I will now be at harmony with everyone in this forum
(...except for Gary...he's a bit dodgy....I kid, I kid!)

I couldnt agree more

[melja]

Some of you people just need to look a one simple thing, and its the freezing level! look at the canty high country levels for the next 4 days - all above 1000m so no chance for snow here,not even banks peninsula.
I think people look into these fancy model forcasts to much and see what they want to see! sure its snowing in southland but they are allways colder and most parts are at a high altitude and the weather only warms up on its trip north.

[Gary Roberts]

Some of you people just need to look a one simple thing, and its the freezing level! look at the canty high country levels for the next 4 days - all above 1000m so no chance for snow here,not even banks peninsula.
I think people look into these fancy model forcasts to much and see what they want to see! sure its snowing in southland but they are allways colder and most parts are at a high altitude and the weather only warms up on its trip north.

I didn't realise that Southland got some snow out of this. It can't have been much. It'll be gone by tomorrow, if it's not gone already. The farmers in Gorrrrrrre will be grizzling.

You're correct about freezing levels. They're way too high. North of Gorrrrrrre (I guess) it never got cold enough for snow to fall, letalone settle. The very light, barely perceptible dusting on the higher peaks around here was almost all gone by lunchtime.

[Gary Roberts]

I guess thats true, but arent ya sick of drizzly winters.

Welcome to NZ! Drizzle is likely to be the best we can expect in the winters ahead. Well, in the SI anyway: the NI gets all the best Action Weather and always has. The swine!

Oh well, roll on June, july, august and the start of September.

Yep. Three-and-a-half more months of drizzle for those beneath the cloud.

[Myself]

Some of you people just need to look a one simple thing, and its the freezing level! look at the canty high country levels for the next 4 days - all above 1000m so no chance for snow here,not even banks peninsula.

Too simplistic. Those are free-air freezing levels. Snow can fall below them and can itself lower the freezing level in a very short period of time.

[Storm Struck]

I for one have been waiting out on this event, i think it's early days to be saying snow to sea level unless models are showing a significant blast within a 2 day range.
Yes we had sleet nearly snow a few weeks ago, but that was from a low off BP below 1000hp.
It's not even winter yet and people are complaining about no snow, May is a settled month usually especailly for the south island it's not until June when big events start showing up on the severe radars.
I know it is abit boring having 3-4 days set up ahead of just showers or rain and it would be nice to have a little spice added to it all, so what put it aside go off and do indoor activities with others then before you know it the sun will be out again and hopefully an even better weather event on the horizon.
I don't like people on here who use the negative attidude from previous years events, '' ohh it hasnt snowed here in 3 years so it's not going to again in the future'' where is the confidense and belief.
Ok we possibly did have better years for weather from 1982-2004 with more thunderstorm days, snow events, and windstorms, but we have to stay positive it's not bad luck it's just a phase the earth is going through with other areas in the world getting more storms than us.
We all seem to want bad weather every week which is ok coming from us, but if we had stormy weather all the time we would get sick of it.
It's like if we all went and lived in Darwin for a few months during storm season, there's practically storms every day there and we would get sick of them because most would be same instead of having storms every so often and actually enjoying them.
Cheers
Jason.

[Inny Binny]

Oh, and don't forget we've had settling snow every year in Chch from 2002-2006. So snow isn't that rare in Chch.

[Gary Roberts]

I don't like people on here who use the negative attidude from previous years events, '' ohh it hasnt snowed here in 3 years so it's not going to again in the future'' where is the confidense and belief.

Because it's meteorology and climatology, not religion and sports. Belief has nothing to do with it. Science and faith are mutually exclusive.

Telling yourself and others that, say, "It's gonna snow!" has no effect whatsoever on the weather. Likewise, saying "It's not gonna snow!" is a waste of time. If the FACTS AND EVIDENCE support the stance, then it's a completely different story.

I did not see anything in the recent and current models to support the assertion that we would experience a significant sea-level snow event. Even heavy snow at high altitude/elevations looked unlikely. I based that opinion upon what I believed to be firm evidence.

Wishing and praying for the weather to do something is an utter waste of time, as is baselessly claiming it will do something, just because we'd like it to happen. Criticising others for failing to do the same is kind of pointless and silly.

No offense Jason, but this is about the science, not wishful thinking. The weather doesn't care what we want, because the weather is just weather, not some anthropomorphic deity, hungry for worship and tribute.

That's my confident belief.

[gopolks]

The wizard will be so disappointed.

[Gary Roberts]

I taught the Wizard everything he knows.

[gopolks]

HAHA