Wet Week for the South Island

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Could be an interesting week of wet weather for us folks here in Canterbury.
With the current system of "Drewery" lows moving across us, this could? provide for some interesting rainfall totals.


JohnGaul
NZTS

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes, very much looking like it more and more. The latest 7 day rain forecast from metservice shows the low hanging around and it has moved much further south than what it looked yesterday! Already flooded land and high rivers here. Could be interesting. Whatever we get today and next couple of days interms of rain will be a bonus to keep those levels high for when the real rain comes. Drizzly here atm, sometimes thicker. Cold South West Breeze and between 5 and 6 degrees

[Ryan Thomas]

I was wondering what is the record in Christchurch is for days in a row not to exceed 10 degrees? Or 9 or 8.. etc?
Lacked frosts this month too, wondering if the rain from next week will push up this months excessive amount of rainfall before the month finishes.

At the moment its 4 below 9 degrees in a row

edit: looks like below 10 degrees till thursday so far!

[Fujita Phil]

I can't remember what the sun looks like .

[Andy]

Yes a wet month in ChCh thats for sure.

Jeff has made these comments on his site

"The rainfall to date is the highest for any July I've recorded with 132.4mm. The previous wettest July was last year with 91.4mm. The 46.4mm recorded on the 24th is my highest daily rainfall total for July. With these rain totals, the number of days with temperatures at or below zero are currently 4, the lowest I've recorded. It's also been the windiest July I've recorded. Still 5 days to the end of the month. (Based on data to 6am 26th July)"

[Andy]

John

Have you got rainfall totals for July? For West Melton.

[Janos]

Yes its been an interesting week...this is the 6th day in a row where we have not seen double figues.
Last time we had a sunny day was las Monday when we hit a maximum of 13.2deg.
The last 24 hours we have had 29mm of rain.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

John

Have you got rainfall totals for July? For West Melton.

Yes.
67.6mm so far, thats to 10pm last night.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[gllitz]

GFS is certainly showing a lot of precip for the CHCH area in the upcoming week...see attached...
NOGAPS, however, not showing as much...
...and no really cold air about (stooopid blocking high to the south) to turn it to flakes at low levels, so here's looking forward to the grey, wet "blach" ...NOT!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

over 100m? Blue skies is saying 20-50mm wednesday and 20-50mm thursday. I see they are saying 50-100mm for malborough! Models still intensifying for rain totals for CHCH?

[Ryan Thomas]

over 100m? Blue skies is saying 20-50mm wednesday and 20-50mm thursday. I see they are saying 50-100mm for malborough! Models still intensifying for rain totals for CHCH?

100m, come on you have to be over exaggerating there

Still seems to be a fair bit to come to make this July even wetter!

[gllitz]

Uhm, I'm am only presenting what the model is showing as at the 18Z run...take it for what it's worth...and it is only ONE model amongst many that need to be looked at for a bigger picture...

If this particular model stays consistent over the next few days, then yes, I there is a good potential for LOTS of rain...taking a look at the MS 3/7 day rain models, seems to match up pretty well...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah, you got a thick drizzle in burwood? Very thick drizzle here atm, id say its rain now. 7.2mm so far today, keeping the paddocks with puddles from the other day

[tgsnoopy]

over 100m? Blue skies is saying 20-50mm wednesday and 20-50mm thursday. I see they are saying 50-100mm for malborough! Models still intensifying for rain totals for CHCH?

100m, come on you have to be over exaggerating there

Still seems to be a fair bit to come to make this July even wetter!

Wow, 100m or 100,000 mm, that's a heck of a typo

Not looking forward to the next event. Sigh. We've already been flooded once this year, it's unusual this late in the year, but we shall see.

[Storm Struck]

Latest runs certainly show alot more precipitation now from Wednesday night onwards over 100mm for sure.
I wouldnt want to be living around the avon or heathcote rivers this week .
Alot of paddocks already have surface water lying around on them, even a burst storm water pipe near Riccarton today right in the centre of the road which has actually blown the tarseal up.
Atleaast with all this overcast gloomy weather one thing is for sure, it is slowly getting lighter and the days are feeling that incy bit longer which makes a difference even when you finish course in town after at 5pm and the sun is still shining summers a coming.
Cheers
Jason.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

sorry i meant 100mm lol

The below shows the lastest GFS model run. Now 116.5mm with intensities reaching about 18mm an hour? Seems very intense!! Sorry its so big, next time ill just attach link lol

[Inny Binny]

Another type there Mark...it's 18mm/6hr, or 3mm/hr, but it certianly will be heavier than that at some points, the model runs are just averages over longer periiods of time.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

yeah sorry, i was just thinking that in the lounge so i came back up here to correct myself and then i see you've done it for me lol. Lets just say more precipitation each time it runs

[melja]

Latest runs certainly show alot more precipitation now from Wednesday night onwards over 100mm for sure.
I wouldnt want to be living around the avon or heathcote rivers this week .
Alot of paddocks already have surface water lying around on them, even a burst storm water pipe near Riccarton today right in the centre of the road which has actually blown the tarseal up.
Atleaast with all this overcast gloomy weather one thing is for sure, it is slowly getting lighter and the days are feeling that incy bit longer which makes a difference even when you finish course in town after at 5pm and the sun is still shining summers a coming.
Cheers
Jason.

When have we seen the sun lately

[gllitz]

Latest runs certainly show alot more precipitation now from Wednesday night onwards over 100mm for sure.
I wouldnt want to be living around the avon or heathcote rivers this week .
Alot of paddocks already have surface water lying around on them, even a burst storm water pipe near Riccarton today right in the centre of the road which has actually blown the tarseal up.
Atleaast with all this overcast gloomy weather one thing is for sure, it is slowly getting lighter and the days are feeling that incy bit longer which makes a difference even when you finish course in town after at 5pm and the sun is still shining summers a coming.
Cheers
Jason.

When have we seen the sun lately

I saw it for about 5 minutes today!!!

[Storm Struck]

Yes a very valid point there, i was actually referring to i think it was last Monday when we managed to see the sun .
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The sun has been out here on the odd occasion over the last couple of days. Today, it was rather filtered.
On a more interesting note, rain has been recorded here 10days in a row, most continuious rainfall days so far this year.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Ryan Thomas]

Such a surprise about the amount you get from events compared to Jeffs, John

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Such a surprise about the amount you get from events compared to Jeffs, John

It's more wetter closer to the Port Hills from out here. Bob Crowder has some interesting rainfall figures from his home weather station and the weather station he has up on the Sign of the Kiwi. (Shame he is not on the forum)

JohnGaul
NZTS

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest GFS runs show a big back of in precipitation. 116.5mm last night and now just showing 61.5mm on the lastest run. Looks like its way quicker moving or something suddenly. I knew we wouldnt end up getting over 100mm!