Wet Week for the South Island

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 28/07/2008 08:10

The potential high rainfall area in the South Island is the coastward high ground from North Canterbury to Malborough given the orographic enhancement. lesser amounts over the plains, still a good soaking on the way though. I'm guessing 30-40mm for the plains. Thats my thoughts.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 09:45

I really thought we would get heaps and heaps of rain. Like over 80mm at least when the model last night was saying 115mm. To drop to 61mm is a huge as drop!

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Mon 28/07/2008 10:18

Yep, we might even have some sunny days out of this week.

Gary McConnochie · Unread post by **Gary McConnochie** » Mon 28/07/2008 10:37

That would be nice

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 11:14

latest run at 11am just come through for GFS model and now greater precipitation predicted again. Up 20mm to 84.1mm. Maybe we are going to get a lot. 116mm last night 64mm this morning and now 84mm now :S

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 28/07/2008 11:29

Oh no, say it isn't sooo! The models have changed!! It happens...and they will continue to change...oh dear, what a shame...

Anyway, latest GFS is attached...one thing to keep in mind, MarkThomas, is that the precip amounts you see there are for the ENTIRE period of the run...and when the scale is like it is, with heavy rain WED/THUR, those little bits to the side are actually significant...I estimate roughly 13mm of rain outside the "main event". NOGAPS model is a bit hard to read, but showing lots of precip as well...

Still, what can be said is that there will be a significant amount of precip (rain for us, prolly snow in much higher elevations, like the ski fields) in the coming week or so...esp WED/THURS

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 13:21

Yes, you could say snow to higher levels and ski fields!!! Check the below link out!!! Wednesday forecast for 102cm!!! Ive never seen that much ever forecast for a ski field in a single day!!
http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... ias=mthutt

I've been pretty bored so i just made my own Christchurch 5 day forecast weather station for fun lol. Yeah i know im crazy but heres the link to it, it was fun!

http://www.theweatherchannelkidsgames.com/

go to playback and the code = humidity-0736

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 28/07/2008 15:41

I was just about to say something about the 102cm forecast. That sure is alot.
I really hope we get alot of rain this week. I have an avon boundary, might see it rise pretty high

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Mon 28/07/2008 15:47

Also point out that M/S has a high risk for heavy rain in Canterbury on it's Outlook.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 17:36

latest GFS run shows just 52.7mm of rain. Well and truly backed off

Ryan Thomas · Unread post by **Ryan Thomas** » Mon 28/07/2008 17:39

It could change again on the next run..

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 17:51

yeah ist gone 102 to 116 - 64 - 84 -54 so up down up down

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 28/07/2008 18:54

MarkThomas wrote:latest GFS run shows just 52.7mm of rain. Well and truly backed off

Just 52.7mm

even this amount of rain will cause problems dont you know and who really want all this rain anyway? I manage a large glasshouse property growing cucumbers and im hanging out for some sun as our production is only 30% of normal so be gone with this s#*t weather and roll on the frosts and sunny days

waterboy · Unread post by **waterboy** » Mon 28/07/2008 19:05

Hi guys no thrilling storms down here. It snowed this afternoon plus and it rained so thats just what the Dr ordered!!

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 19:06

melja wrote:
MarkThomas wrote:latest GFS run shows just 52.7mm of rain. Well and truly backed off
Just 52.7mm even this amount of rain will cause problems dont you know and who really want all this rain anyway? I manage a large glasshouse property growing cucumbers and im hanging out for some sun as our production is only 30% of normal so be gone with this s#*t weather and roll on the frosts and sunny days

lol yes but the 80mm looked so much more impressive, could change again ill check the next one that comes through at 11. The latest rain radar at 6pm showing more precipitation starting to form. I act saw a bit of blue sky between 4 and 5pm today with the sun half out for the first time in like a week. No exaggeration there either i dont think....Hopefully we can get 20mm from the remainder of today and tomorrow before the big stuff comes !

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 28/07/2008 19:12

I don't care about cucumbers, bring on the heavy rain!

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Mon 28/07/2008 19:16

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008072800

Don't forget that there are other models apart from gfs...although it's blood hard to see with all those thk levels averywhere, it looks to me that NOGAPS is currently aiming at around 60to 70mm...too hard to see though.

If anyone has any clearer pics, it would be nice.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 28/07/2008 19:38

You wouldnt say that if water went through your house and buggered all ya stuff

Funny how some people on here want bad weather that causes death and distruction but dont have a thought for the people it happens to

quite sad people really

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 28/07/2008 19:45

Down there youre having a taste of whats normal here in July.Anyway the ECMWF shows some rain on thursday then possibly a SW flick on Sunday other than that its a normal westerly pattern.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 28/07/2008 21:22

Does anyone see the GFS run at 11pm producing more precipitation totals than the 5pm one of 51mm? It sure did drop from 11am this morning (84mm).

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 28/07/2008 21:27

46.8mm - 49.3mm , just guessing

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 28/07/2008 21:34

MarkThomas wrote:Does anyone see the GFS run at 11pm producing more precipitation totals than the 5pm one of 51mm? It sure did drop from 11am this morning (84mm).

Dude, there is no way of telling...

...almost like asking what next week's ABs score vs Aussie is going to be?

You just need to be....P-A-T-I-E-N-T...and try not to lose sleep over it...

Is it going to rain? Yes...
Is it going to snow? Yes...probably in places above 500m asl...
Is there going to be a lot of precip? Yes...

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Mon 28/07/2008 21:54

melja wrote:You wouldnt say that if water went through your house and buggered all ya stuff
Funny how some people on here want bad weather that causes death and distruction but dont have a thought for the people it happens to quite sad people really

I wouldn't say that if I were you. I've been flooded 9 times in 8 years now. By participating in this site I've been aware in advance of the last few events and taken measures to minimise damage. The last event wasn't that long ago and no water made it inside, despite it being about 150mm above floor level outside on the upstream side of the house.

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 28/07/2008 22:00

Sorry to hear about the flooding, and good to see you're preventing it now.
And of crouse I don't want people to die and houses/towns get destroyed, I just like heavy rain/bad weather in general.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 28/07/2008 22:44

What we have to remember is that the flow will be strong to gale force NE at first on Wednesday afternoon/evening which will probly push the rain through quicker and break it up abit, although there will be some heavy dolops.
What interests me is an enhancement of rainfall when the wind turns from moist NE to colder Southerly, as has been seen in the past this often brings some good heavy rainfalls within a 3-4hr period of winds shifting.
It is also fair to say that the Plains and Foothills will recieve more rainfall than the coast, but everyone should see over 50mm atleast over a 3 day period.
Cheers
Jason.

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