Wet Week for the South Island

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 02/08/2008 23:26

Well we finally had a day of sun today but it did show very flooded paddocks from up on the hill. HEAPS of surface water. A powerline fell down in halswell due to the soggy soils giving way! Looks like the band of rain moving south on the east coast of the south island is stooling again around north canterbury. Its hardly moved from 7pm - 11pm. Heavy falls indicated on radar too. Very still and calm here in CHCH atm.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sun 03/08/2008 00:09

Well, didn't see this model run coming....see attached....the very brief cold flick MON night into TUES will be neat to watch, but I am more interested in seeing if the THUR/FRI thing eventuates...probably not, given the time it is away, but just looks pretty on the meteogram...if only...

Will need to check NOGAPS and ECMWF charts on this one, for sure...

Moderators, feel free to put this in another thread, if you want....

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 03/08/2008 00:51

gllitz wrote:Well, didn't see this model run coming....see attached....the very brief cold flick MON night into TUES will be neat to watch, but I am more interested in seeing if the THUR/FRI thing eventuates...probably not, given the time it is away, but just looks pretty on the meteogram...if only...

Will need to check NOGAPS and ECMWF charts on this one, for sure...

Moderators, feel free to put this in another thread, if you want....

I'll wait and see on this one

If it was summertime, considering the low barometer and the warmth of the sunshine on the ground, there would be lots of instability around, moreso than at the present.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Pelorus Pete · Unread post by **Pelorus Pete** » Sun 03/08/2008 08:40

Have had 64mm here in inner Pelorus Sound since 4pm Saturday. Approx half b4 midnight and half early am.
No thunder and little wind.
SW change will be much welcomed - might see the sun this week Mon - Thur - then more rain !!!

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sun 03/08/2008 09:08

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
gllitz wrote:Well, didn't see this model run coming....see attached....the very brief cold flick MON night into TUES will be neat to watch, but I am more interested in seeing if the THUR/FRI thing eventuates...probably not, given the time it is away, but just looks pretty on the meteogram...if only...

Will need to check NOGAPS and ECMWF charts on this one, for sure...

Moderators, feel free to put this in another thread, if you want....
I'll wait and see on this one
If it was summertime, considering the low barometer and the warmth of the sunshine on the ground, there would be lots of instability around, moreso than at the present.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Latest GFS, at least, has pulled back for THUR/FRI...bummer...

Musta been just a fluke run...oh well...NOGAPS and ECMWF are not really conclusive, either.

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Sun 03/08/2008 13:39

Interesting to note, though, that in the rural forecasts M/S has snow to very low levels right up the east coast.

I would only think there is a very small chance of anything eventuating, but it's just interesting that M/S have that forecast there.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 03/08/2008 14:08

I would only think there is a very small chance of anything eventuating, but it's just interesting that M/S have that forecast there.

For later in the week ECMWF has a High to the south of NZ and a low out to the east of the SI, a good combination for low level snow at this time of the year.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sun 03/08/2008 18:39

This said from the Metservice in their extended forecast.

FRIDAY:

"Rain over the North Island with cold southerlies developing in the south and east. Snow showers down to near sea level in the south and east of the South Island with very cold southerlies, but becoming mostly fine in the west. "

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Sun 03/08/2008 21:04

Another cold snap coming?

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 04/08/2008 19:40

Looks like that rain is heading back towards CHCH again. Few heavy falls on 7pm radar.

Just looked at 745pm radar on sky and shows very heavy falls inland Canterbury atm!

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 04/08/2008 21:42

Looking at the rain radar from 6pm to now it shows heavy rain in north canterbury which is hardly moving, cant be good on those already soaked grounds. How many mm has North Canterbury received today? Amberley, Oxford, Kaiapoi and Leichfield Beach all look as if they have been in the firing line this evening if the radars are anything to go by.

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 04/08/2008 21:45

Still no 10pm radar

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 04/08/2008 21:47

sky shows 9.30pm one. The 10pm radar wont upload till around 10:15pm on the metservice.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 04/08/2008 21:48

MarkThomas wrote:Looking at the rain radar from 6pm to now it shows heavy rain in north canterbury which is hardly moving, cant be good on those already soaked grounds. How many mm has North Canterbury received today? Amberley, Oxford, Kaiapoi and Leichfield Beach all look as if they have been in the firing line this evening if the radars are anything to go by.

8mm so far. But over half that fell this morning.

On top of 6-10mm yesterday (I had 6, a few km inland was 10).

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 04/08/2008 21:49

Im so thick i thought it was 10:47, oops. Lol I kept looking back for it aswell

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 04/08/2008 21:51

Seems to be stooling around your area. SOutherly just starting to pick up here with a few spots of rain. HOw are the grounds up there? Still a lot of flooding? Prob need a few days of sun and windy conditions. Maybe the Norwester that is forecast tomorrow? No chance of the snow to sea level on friday setting on the ground where you are, no grass for it to land on lol. I went for a drive up there the other day, amazing how much water was around, worst flooding ive seen in Canterbury in my 19 years of life on the planet that i can remember.

Ryan Thomas · Unread post by **Ryan Thomas** » Mon 04/08/2008 21:58

The parks here are still insanely soggy and wet. Wonder if that snow on friday that we MIGHT get settles.. Might still be to wet

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 04/08/2008 22:02

yes, however the forecast is for fine weather tuesday - thursday with NW winds at times so maybe sun and wind will help a long way with that. Band of rain moving up from the south now too looking at 945pm. Around ashburton.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 04/08/2008 22:41

Just had some brief steady rain here with a hint of sleet, also down to 3.9C now.
Could have been a brief but weak thunderstorm inland from Rakia around 8pm sure looked heavy there also some strikes on tracker at the time.
Cheers
Jason.

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