Possible snowfall

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 13/06/2004 14:41

There looks to be the chance of a snowfall over inland South Island midweek. I am thinking warm advective snow here, cold air undercutting more moist air, resulting in persistent wintry precip inland. Anyway, just a possibility of that happening at this stage.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 13/06/2004 19:33

From the models and MetService's long-range outlook, this cold blast looks like being fast moving, hence only a low probability of heavy snow. Plus MetService is only predicting snow to 400 metres in the south at this stage - hardly a major polar blast. But complications can easily occur.

I notice (looking at the ECMWF models) that in the Southern Hemisphere, there seem to be number of cold air blasts likely to be enamating from or near Antarctica in the near future, mostly affecting ocean areas (which make up most of the Southern Hemisphere anyway), though eastern South America looks like getting a cold southerly outbreak. I wonder if this means NZ may be in line for more chilly blasts in coming weeks.

Speaking of snow, it seems like the print media may again be reporting a snowfall that was really hail (like they did with the April Wanganui hailstorm). I looked at the Hawkes Bay paper in the library and early in the week they said that snow had settled on Te Mata Peak near Havelock North on Queen's Birthday Weekend. That peak is only about 400 metres high, and I don't think the cold snap last weekend was that cold - I recall snow not being forecast any lower than 800 metres and the Desert Road stayed open.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sun 13/06/2004 20:03

Looks like the wind is going to shift to the west for the next couple days with rain out west and mainly dry out east.

Wednesday looks to be cooler with some snow. But to low levels probably not. Could be interesting if the wind doesn't move the cold air from inland places over the next few days..

Hey i bet most of us have seen the models for next weekend. A tropical low for mains and a southerly for desert. I reckon next weekend might be the go for some heavy snow down in the south

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 13/06/2004 20:28

I've been studying the models but I can't forecast whether a good snowy scenario is on the cards. Things look too quick moving and whether cumbersome anticyclones look likely to persist, I don't know?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 13/06/2004 20:50

tich wrote:...MetService is only predicting snow to 400 metres in the south at this stage...

That would cover the entire MacKenzie country then!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 13/06/2004 21:43

The maps show a NW flow mainly this week and a good low at the end of the week

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 13/06/2004 23:32

...MetService is only predicting snow to 400 metres in the south at this stage...

That would cover the entire MacKenzie country then!

Not a particularly unusual occurence in winter I guess. Snow down to levels like Geraldine or Ashburton, or even to sea-level, now that's more like a major winter blast.
Anyway the models suggest a rather complex (and consequently unpredictable) weather pattern later this week. I suppose anything could happen.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 14/06/2004 18:05

I see that MetService has flagged the possibilty of a good snowfall away unfortunately.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 14/06/2004 18:22

It will most likely be west to south west winds blah blah

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I see that MetService has flagged the possibilty of a good snowfall away unfortunately.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 14/06/2004 19:55

Yes, looks like the highly mobile westerlies of high lattitudes cuts the cold air off.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 14/06/2004 22:15

I see that MetService has flagged the possibilty of a good snowfall away unfortunately.

But it now looks like there could be another cold outbreak this weekend and early next week - though this time a cold westerly rather than southerly, so the west and south of the South Island should feel its full force, but not the east.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 15/06/2004 19:17

Temps at Macquarie Island today.

times are in GMT.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Tue 15/06/2004 20:32

Some cold air should move over the south tomorrow

From the metservice

Canterbury, Otago and Southland

Rain about the western ranges, and scattered falls in Southland and western Otago at times. On Wednesday, a cold southerly change spreads north to reach Canterbury by evening. Snow to 500 metres in the south and 700 metres in Canterbury.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 15/06/2004 21:30

Andy wrote:Some cold air should move over the south tomorrow

From the metservice

Canterbury, Otago and Southland

Rain about the western ranges, and scattered falls in Southland and western Otago at times. On Wednesday, a cold southerly change spreads north to reach Canterbury by evening. Snow to 500 metres in the south and 700 metres in Canterbury.

Crikey, it IS raining! I never saw that coming! That's what happens when you don't pay attention. I don't think I'll ever get the hang of this weather-predicting game...sigh...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 16/06/2004 06:45

The southerly change this morning will bring hail and possible thunder in the far south. Also, I think light snow possible to 200m in Southland/ South Otago.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 16/06/2004 11:35

Yes Steven, I'd agree there. Cb's look visable on the Sat pic moving into those areas now. I'm thinking things could move on into Chch with the same type of conditioins but I think moisture is lacking in the lower levels here in Chch, the front is going to come here later on in the afternoon so thats another reason nothing could happen I guess, not enough warmth to get things going.

Or am I just talking a whole lot of bull, I don't know, my attempt at making a prediction,

I'm woundering if that front going up the West Coast will hit the west of the North Island?

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 16/06/2004 16:22

The southerly change looks to be slowing down and weakening as it makes its way up the South Island.
Another purler day here though for June,almost feels like spring

.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Wed 16/06/2004 16:40

We had a good dump of rain Invercargill today ,torrential rain at noon for about 20 minutes as the southerly kicked in . Temp 7.5 degrees at 1300. Now overcast - no rain dying southerly

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 16/06/2004 22:04

Southerly arrived earlier this evening in Chch, but hardly with a bang. Temperature down to what you'd expect for this time of year (after another balmy day), but only a moderate wind and nothing more than a bit of high cloud. Latest radar shows nothing for most of Canty.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 16/06/2004 22:24

Overcast and slight drizzle,9 degrees.
Another fizzer for the skifields.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 16/06/2004 22:29

Looks like the original prediction 5 days ago is more right ie a complex low with NE affecting the NI and westerlies following in the W/E

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:n"]I'm woundering if that front going up the West Coast will hit the west of the North Island?

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson