Southwesterly to lash NZ on Tuesday

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 21/06/2004 11:59

Looks like tomorow will be cold and windy over NZ with a strong southwesterly flow and some more white stuff about the far south and the Desert Road, with eastern areas not escaping a cold southerly change with showers. A brief shower passed over central Chch about an hour ago, but sunny now. (though shower cloud visible to the north) Definitely cooler than yesterday.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 21/06/2004 12:44

I got the shower to Ben.

Obviously my interest in this SW is thunderstorms (Then again I do remember my dissapointment in not getting snow last year) , any ideas? Or is it really to cold a time of year. They have been happening on the coast and look to continue today though....

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 21/06/2004 13:26

Just started raining again here in CHCH, fingers crossed for some thing to happen over night!!

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 21/06/2004 13:32

Same here to Steven, I'm guessing it's your lunch brake? I'll keep an eye out as to whats going to happen later on in the day.

This rain will probably pass over agian, definately colder than yesterday as you say Ben

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 21/06/2004 13:33

03 Stormchaser wrote:Just started raining again here in CHCH, fingers crossed for some thing to happen over night!!

Around 6/8 here, 4.5Â° and the rain past by sometime this morning. Still some snow lying around but not a lot. What do you anticipate for us down here in the MacKenzie/Upper Waitaki? I hope it's interesting!

UPDATE: Well the wife tells me that we had snow this morning (I was up late last night so slept in today), enough to close the Lindis Pass again.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 21/06/2004 15:02

Really need a good High or Ridge in the South Tasman pushing south to get a good cold out break onto NZ.
It's High preasure that delivers the coldest Wintry weather to NZ.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 21/06/2004 16:56

Hasn't been too bad here today but now however the sky has "the 5-o'clock" look to it now

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 21/06/2004 18:05

sky has "the 5-o'clock" look to it now

Poured down here about 5pm.

I hope that cold pool over the South island makes it this far north. Thunder and hail a certainty if it does.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 21/06/2004 18:23

NZstorm wrote:
sky has "the 5-o'clock" look to it now
Poured down here about 5pm.

I hope that cold pool over the South island makes it this far north. Thunder and hail a certainty if it does.

We received a fax from the police this afternoon predicting that snow and/or ice will close the Lindis Pass again tonight.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 21/06/2004 18:33

Gary, the Police down there are into Weather Forecasting are they.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Mon 21/06/2004 18:36

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 03:19pm 21 Jun 2004
VALID UNTIL 09:00am 22 Jun 2004

MILFORD ROAD
Further snow is expected on the Milford Road with accumulations tailing off in
the early hours of Tuesday morning after which time the flow turns
south-southwesterly and snow showers will become confined to the southern side
of the Homer Tunnel. A further 10 to 15cm can be expected near the tunnel with
lesser amounts down to about 500 metres today and to 300 to 400 metres tonight.

LINDIS PASS ROAD
Snow is expected on higher parts of the Lindis Pass Road from this evening (
Monday), with 5 to 10cm possible near the summit overnight.

PORTERS PASS ROAD
Snow is expected on higher parts of the Porters (Arthurs) Pass Road from this
evening (Monday), with around 5cm possible overnight, but significantly more is
likely around Arthurs Pass.

DESERT ROAD
Snow is expected on higher parts of the Desert Road tomorrow, with around 5cm
likely near the summit from 6am to 3pm Tuesday.

Special Weather Advisory

SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FIORDLAND SOUTHLAND OTAGO CANTERBURY TAIHAPE
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 04:03pm Monday 21-Jun-2004

WINTRY CONDITIONS FOR HIGHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND

A brief cold outbreak is likely to bring snow to 300 to 400 metres in parts of
Fiordland, Southland and Otago overnight and to 400 to 800 metres about the
South Island ranges further north. This includes the higher passes and roads,
such as the Lindis Pass, Porters Pass, Arthurs Pass, Lewis Pass, as well as the
Milford Road (See latest road snowfall warning). The cold snap is also expected
to bring a period of snow to higher parts of the central North Island plateau,
including the Desert Road, during Tuesday, before conditions gradually warm up
again on Wednesday.
Motorists considering using some of the higher South Island roads or the Desert
Road are advised to check road conditions before departing and be prepared for
wintry weather.

Still a bit more to come

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 21/06/2004 18:51

spwill wrote:Gary, the Police down there are into Weather Forecasting are they.

If so they probably can't do much worse than the regular forecasters!

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 21/06/2004 18:53

Andy wrote:Still a bit more to come

I don't know why we love it so much, but we do!

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 21/06/2004 19:13

Interesting to hear a report of a tornado in Greymouth, wish I was there! Most likely a FC but a tornado isn't out of the question. If that cold pool does reach you Steven W I'm sure you'll be out and about to deliver the goods (photos, reports etc).

Channel one reckons thunder for Canterbury tomorrow, we'll have to see but I don't think it looks likely (25 - 30% chance, am I being optimistic?), more likely rain and maybe small hail. But all aside, Give me thunder and tornadoes for sure!!!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 21/06/2004 20:58

Yes Aaron, TV1 overcooked the thunder bit. This cold pool does hold very unstable air but it looks so dry along the eastern SI. Dewpoints near 0C. These will rise a little overnight though, and yes some showery weather with small hail coming your way.

Better chance of thunder with larger hail in the west from about Taranaki south.

Weather in AK at 9pm fair, 14C

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 21/06/2004 21:05

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Interesting to hear a report of a tornado in Greymouth, wish I was there! Most likely a FC but a tornado isn't out of the question. If that cold pool does reach you Steven W I'm sure you'll be out and about to deliver the goods (photos, reports etc).

Channel one reckons thunder for Canterbury tomorrow, we'll have to see but I don't think it looks likely (25 - 30% chance, am I being optimistic?), more likely rain and maybe small hail. But all aside, Give me thunder and tornadoes for sure!!!

There should be lots of thunder for ChCh tomorrow with the southerly -if it was in summer and came through in the afternoon with lots of ground heating and a keen NE beforehand

...I can't see it
Lots of grey status, about 5mm of precip and a very cold wind with a biting chill factor.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 21/06/2004 21:20

...I can't see it
Lots of grey status, about 5mm of precip and a very cold wind with a biting chill factor.

JohnGaul
NZTS

You guys should be living in Hokitika

Heavy showers here now from that weak front crossing.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 21/06/2004 21:24

NZstorm wrote:You guys should be living in Hokitika.

Heavy showers here now from that weak front crossing.

Yes, Steven.
Picking up a few distant sferex possibly from that now

AAron, maybe you should of gone to the West Coast

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 21/06/2004 21:25

Interesting to hear a report of a tornado in Greymouth, wish I was there! Most likely a FC but a tornado isn't out of the question.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if there's a tornado in the north of the North Island tomorrow - the MetService warning is for gusts reaching 120kph during squalls and thunderstorms. But when has MetService ever mentioned a possibility of a tornado in its warnings, let alone general forecasts?

Dramatic looking glaciated clouds spreading off the Alps today, some of them reaching Chch with the odd rain shower. Must be really stormy up in the mountains, with hail and snow. I could see some fresh white through a very small break in the cloud this afternoon. The snow's most probably heavier further west towards Arthur's Pass and also to lower levels. I guess the West Coast ranges are coated well down. (only about 6C at Haast at 3PM)

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 21/06/2004 21:39

[quote="tich"]

But when has MetService ever mentioned a possibility of a tornado in its warnings, let alone general forecasts?
quote]

Good point, Ben

Tornados/Thunderstorms/Hail don't meet MetService criteria with their weather warnings.
Ultra-Severe weather, I say, would be included in their Severe Weather Warnings, if they were 100% sure if an event would likely to happen.

The Labour WE storm here in 2002 had no warnings.
If so ,what of the current MetService warnings would of covered it.
A detail of MetService warnings can be found athttp://www.metservice.co.nz/forecasts/email_li ... itions.asp

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 21/06/2004 21:56

Yes Steven, thats another good point. I noticed the dew points from local AWS in Chch throughout the day and saw how they were very low.

I went out to the beach about 3/4 of an hour ago and saw a few flashes of sheet lightning off behind Amberly near the ranges. It's all dead now as far as I can see, when I looked on the lightning map a strike had occured just off the coast north of Amberly a bit, this sat pic shows the Cb that did it:

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... n21064.jpg

In amoungst those two big "noise" bands you can see a Cb in Pegasus Bay, it must've been short lived though. Stuff probably still going off on the Coast though.

You read my mind Ben! I was interested aswell how they particularaly mentioned strong winds and squalls associated with thunderstorms for the North, this made me think FC and tornadoes etc aswell (small ones obviously 'if' anything did occur). I have a funny feeling that Augie mentioned in one of his forecasts once that there could be a FC or something at one point in time a while back. I don't know where I heard that from or if it's true at all but for some reason I thought I heard it somewhere.

Yes John, maby I should've gone to the coast, next time eh.....

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Mon 21/06/2004 22:04

Better chance of thunder with larger hail in the west from about Taranaki south.

Hope you're right Steven. I'll be waiting.

From the satellite imagery it looks like the leading edge of that cold pool of air should be coming through the southern half of the NI early tomorrow morning.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 21/06/2004 22:42

i wonder what windspeeds we will get here...
already had gusts to 54 knots on saturday from the NW (was not very well forecasted)
been away for the weekend, now back...
(and found the rain guage had blown off...and the tipping mechanism had jammed, and gave a reading of 650mm over 24 hours, LOL

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 22/06/2004 08:37

Some brief showers in Chch so far this morning, with a chilly southerly. Seems like there's quite a bit of snow in the Nelson/Buller area high country, with roads closed between Nelson and Murchison and around Nelson Lakes. 2-3C temperatures in Westland on 6AM obs.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 22/06/2004 09:52

tich wrote:Some brief showers in Chch so far this morning, with a chilly southerly. Seems like there's quite a bit of snow in the Nelson/Buller area high country, with roads closed between Nelson and Murchison and around Nelson Lakes. 2-3C temperatures in Westland on 6AM obs.

Only light falls here in Omarama so far.