A couple of news stories

[jeffsweather]

Looking through the news this evening, there are a couple of stories besides the flooding in BOP.

Both of these stories are from stuff.co.nz

The Dominion Post says 2004 has been
Wet, windy and wild
The weather in 2004 has been memorable for all the wrong reasons. This year has seen unprecedented rainfall and floods that devastated communities, closed roads and left thousands of hectares of pasture looking like giant swimming pools.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/dominionpo ... 82,00.html

and a Southland Times Feature Story on Invercargills wind
When the wind blows
It's been a comparatively calm winter, wouldn't you say? Lloyd Esler writes in praise of a breath of fresh air.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/southlandt ... 65,00.html

[Michael]

Well I guess it will be our turn in Spring with the wind and about the upturned yachts,Were not mentioned yet but then again wild weather is "normal" here

[TonyT]

The Dominion Post says 2004 has been
Wet, windy and wild
The weather in 2004 has been memorable for all the wrong reasons. This year has seen unprecedented rainfall and floods that devastated communities, closed roads and left thousands of hectares of pasture looking like giant swimming pools.

Correct me if I'm wrong (and please do post your opinions on this) but isnt there always at least one, usually two or three "worst in living memory" weather events every year? This year its floods in Manawatu and Bay of Plenty, in previous years its been droughts in Canterbury, frost in Central Otago, drought in Northland, drought in Southland, drought on the West Coast, snow on the desert road, warmth in Canterbury. There must be lots more.

My point is, these events are occuring in places which havent seen them before, but taken over the country as a whole, they arent "unprecedented" they are regular occurances. And they are not recent phenomena - we have been having them pretty much every year since I first started taking notice (back in the late 70s I suppose). Perhaps its about time someone compiled a list of severe weather events that we can all refer back to. I guess the Metsoc newsletters would be a good place to start.

[Gary Roberts]

Correct me if I'm wrong (and please do post your opinions on this) but isnt there always at least one, usually two or three "worst in living memory" weather events every year?...

Heh! And we all know how reliable human memory is!

[Manukau heads obs]

yeah, in the BOP, they did say there was a flood only 2 years ago, and it worse silting damage (i guess this rain event actualy didnt have any reallyheavy rainfall over short periods)

as steven williams said, there was nothing all that unusual with the weather pattern that gave the floods in the bop....except that the front remained a), slow moving for a long time, b) active for a long time...
due to a blocking high and a forming low to the north....and lots of moisture beinf fed from the north....which cools, and then cant hold any more rain

i guess the chances of those factors all coming together again at the same time might take another 100 years, or could happen in another 5 years
or when the weather pattern is next in between el nino and la nina even

[Manukau heads obs]

As eastern Bay of Plenty people continue their struggle to save homes and farmland from floodwaters, Prime Minister Helen Clark is warning that climate change may mean present flood protection is no longer enough.

most people blame the govt
but the govt is blaming something else now,...climate change

[jeffsweather]

I agree with Tony, most people couldn't remember if it was sunny or rained last week unless they were on holiday so the living memory thing is relitive.

I'm often amused to hear people say after a couple of days of showers or rain that they wish they rain would stop. This is usually in summer when we've had weeks or perhaps months of dry weather.

The media also has to take some of the blame for this. Every time there is a bit of rain in the forecast, they are saying "Unfortunately there looks like rain coming in the next day or 2".

I remember this message in a TV forecast in the UK in 1991 after weeks of hot, dry weather with the promise of water restrictions if there wasn't any rainfall in the following 2 weeks.

I suppose it's a reflection of most of the population now living in urban centres. Everything is OK as long as the sun shines, the taps run, the lights are on and the water is not lapping at the floor boards.

[jrj]

My momory of weather events goes back to 1959, and I can remember major floods every year somewhere in the country: Opotiki, Waitara, Hutt Valley, Hawke's Bay. Normal events when you build on flood plains. The difference now is that with TV, we see every event (for that I'm grateful), plus the fact that we now build on areas which would have flooded un-noticed in the past. A good example of this is here in Napier. In June 1963 we had a 150mm+ deluge which resulted in widespread flooding. Since then, hundreds of homes have been built (usually right on ground level) on a vast area of very low-lying reclaimed (by the 1931 earthquake) land. When (not if) we have another event of that size, the result next time will be massive.
Of course, it will be blamed on "global warming"!

[Manukau heads obs]

Of course, it will be blamed on "global warming"!

i put that comment in one of my posts just to see what others think of people blaming it on that, and if its justified to do that
but, people do tend to agree the earth's climate, all aroudn the world, seems to be getting more extremes lately...probably becusase we are in between elnino/lanina

the 1930's saw lots of extreme weather around the world, during a very large el nino event

[Michael]

You also have to realize say in large population areas like Auckland too is because of the position its located we don't get the long run of clear days as eg Christchurch and other sheltered locations

I'm often amused to hear people say after a couple of days of showers or rain that they wish they rain would stop. This is usually in summer when we've had weeks or perhaps months of dry weather.

The media also has to take some of the blame for this. Every time there is a bit of rain in the forecast, they are saying "Unfortunately there looks like rain coming in the next day or 2".

I remember this message in a TV forecast in the UK in 1991 after weeks of hot, dry weather with the promise of water restrictions if there wasn't any rainfall in the following 2 weeks.

I suppose it's a reflection of most of the population now living in urban centres. Everything is OK as long as the sun shines, the taps run, the lights are on and the water is not lapping at the floor boards.

[NZstorm]

I heard PM Helen Clark on the radio yesterday going on about our more extreme climate and global warming in reference to BOP floods. But ofcoarse Global Warming is just a theory but it suits some political agendas. And I don't think the weather is anymore severe now than it was 10 or 20years ago. Infact, this decade so far has been a bit boring compared to the 1980's or 1990's with a lack of eventful weather.

[Manukau heads obs]

there were certainly lots of realy strong wind storms in the 80's
lots of harbarns were blown away in the 80's in this disctrict
we have not seen wind like that since!
(except for some good ones in the early 90's)

[tich]

The significance of a severe event in the media is usually increased if it affects a heavily poulated area. The February flood event in the lower North Island ravaged a large area, where many people live - hence the massive damage in $ terms. Cyclone Bola was probably a more severe event meteorologically, but fewer people live in the Gisborne/northern Hawkes Bay than the Manawatu/Rangatikei/Wanganui areas.

Correct me if I'm wrong (and please do post your opinions on this) but isnt there always at least one, usually two or three "worst in living memory" weather events every year?

Often these 'worst in living memory' events affect a small area
Let's take some examples:
Flooding - November 1999 (Queenstown); April 2000 (New Plymouth); October 2000 (Banks Peninsula/Lyttleton - flooding and severe gales); June 2002 (Coromandel)
Snow - August 1997 (northern Hawkes Bay); July 1999 (northeastern Wairarapa); June 2002 (Mid and South Canterbury); July 2003 (Hawkes Bay)

[Fujita Phil]

Imagine if that 7.1 earthquake west of Te Anau last August was centred near a major city

We got a good ride over here in Dunedin

[NZstorm]

NZ Herald carries the headline 'Weight of water set off quakes'.
Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences claims the weight of water may have lead to 'induced seismicity'. I'm sceptical about this.

[Manukau heads obs]

hey, but thats what i said days ago.....but i was only half joking....and i think most people on this forum thought i was nuts!