Wild End to June with an Easterly Low

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 20/06/2009 18:54

Latest runs show quite a vicious southerly storm Friday but it once again passes by to the east but it huge in size and deep at 960hpa. Meanwhile a subtropical low looks like it could affect Parts of the North Island on late next week. A wee way to go but a messy looking end to the Month looks in store. It is about time that these southerly storms were not pushed so far out east. 3 snow events already to sea level this year, even if they were only flurries or minor. Imagine what sort of winter we would be having had the lows been a little further west.

frosty · Unread post by **frosty** » Sat 20/06/2009 19:16

yeah still early days yet,but if it does eventuate who knows where it might go

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 20/06/2009 21:49

Yes this has just showed up on some of the models today, still a fair way out but looks good anyway.
Good thing is its dragging the pool down from over the Tasman which stretches right up to QLD, and loops back into a low in a very cold airflow.

southernthrash · Unread post by **southernthrash** » Sun 21/06/2009 00:14

looking like a good nw - sw change for the south island, right in time for a weeks snowboarding!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 21/06/2009 09:53

Regarding snow for the south of NZ my concern would be the incoming Ridge, but still very early days.
Ruapehu skii fields should do very well out of this next system

southernthrash · Unread post by **southernthrash** » Sun 21/06/2009 10:51

Yep pretty big change in GFS between yesterday and today, but anything could happen.

Still some lighter snow down south... not looking so good further north...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 21/06/2009 11:09

I would be looking at warm advective snow scenario possibilities for inland parts, given conditions stay cold inland this week and there is a moist system moving onto NZ end of the week.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 21/06/2009 13:10

spwill wrote:Ruapehu skii fields should do very well out of this next system

You meaning this system next weekend? will it not be too warm for snow? I have no idea when it comes to forecasting snow. Just that it looks like a warm low so maybe your banking on it being a warm advective event?

Mardi Gras party in Ohakune next weekend.. Hope it does snow while im there.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 21/06/2009 14:37

You meaning this system next weekend? will it not be too warm for snow? I have no idea when it comes to forecasting snow. Just that it looks like a warm low so maybe your banking on it being a warm advective event?

looks like it could turn very cold ( unfortunately) as the low tracks off east of the NI and perhaps warm advective snow possibilities with the approach of the Low at the weekend, still very early days, things could change alot.

fairskies · Unread post by **fairskies** » Mon 22/06/2009 07:30

Sorry.
I'm no tech, but I remember when I lived in Tekapo in the 1980's, if we had a low coming down from the northwest, we had very heavy easterly snow.
Labour weekend 1982 was one of those times, 24 inches of easterly snow in 2 days.
Is that what is meant by adective snow?
Cheers.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 22/06/2009 07:55

wow, check out the latest GFS forecast map for sunday!
there is supposed to be a makariki kite flying day at the manukau heads light house that day.,...dont think so,LOL

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 22/06/2009 08:46

wowzers!!!! there is a lot of rain forecast and that low plummets to 968 hPa according to GFS. This system came out of the blue, so wonder if it will stay in the forecast?

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 22/06/2009 09:09

probably not...but, the term "weather bomb" comes to mind!

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 22/06/2009 09:22

Yes, it affects all ew Zealand this subtropical low at this point in time anyways. Hope it doesnt change too much. Maybe a Weather bomb? 1018hpa to 967hpa? Im probably wrong here i forgot the amount it has to drop over a 24 hour period.

Gfs suggesting 120mm or so over the few days period with 523/24 temps about for some of that peroid too! If only the weather DIDNT CHANGE

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Mon 22/06/2009 12:17

j--me--h wrote:
spwill wrote:Ruapehu skii fields should do very well out of this next system
You meaning this system next weekend? will it not be too warm for snow? I have no idea when it comes to forecasting snow. Just that it looks like a warm low so maybe your banking on it being a warm advective event?

Mardi Gras party in Ohakune next weekend.. Hope it does snow while im there.

Hi j--me--h,Just thought you all might look at this which is quite interesting

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowAboveFreezing

looking like a bomb to me,

Gfs is not updating the 29th June Segment of the latest model run which is a bit suspect as well,

it Jumps from 00z to June 30th 18z.

Must be some scary calculations being done.

Pretty complex system though.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 22/06/2009 14:28

If I read this correct at this stage it defently "bombs" with a bang next weekend, and then would deliver significant near sea level snow toward the end of the period.... running into the follwoing week (7/7)

Of course much water to go under the bridge and a few runs to come before we take it seriously. but......

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 22/06/2009 14:36

I have been checking those models every day wondering if something might develope eventually, sure does fit the Bomb criteria whether it keeps up is another thing.
Loads of good rain for much of the country with some big gales in some areas, maybe a big snow event for the Mckensie Basin perhaps late Sunday/ early monday 29th June.
Another big set of low systems into early July too look possible which can be seen on this WZ GFS run for Sunday below Australia, but lets get through this one first.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/in ... 8&focus=mh

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 22/06/2009 18:22

Backed off sometime as low seemed to be North Island event but now its really back to hitting almost all new zealand and Canterbury seems in the firing line too with strong SE's and maybe an advection snow event? Check out the following

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 22/06/2009 20:10

Still early days but GFS and ECMWF are looking similar now however GFS has the low further south, yes could be interesting for Canterbury.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 22/06/2009 20:25

I think people are getting a bit too caught up in this whole "warm advection snow event" lingo...it looks to me to be a bunch of precip, is all...sure, the pressure is low (nothing overly special) and THK levels and 850 temps are dropping, but not til the "end" part of the event....PLUS...it is WAAAAY to far out time-wise to tell...IT WILL CHANGE.

Something interesting to watch...yes...massive-giant-snow-storm-to-bring-the-South-Island-to-a-screeching-halt...nope, not at this stage.

teanaumalone · Unread post by **teanaumalone** » Mon 22/06/2009 21:52

NOGAPS is showing this low pressure system early next week tracking across the NI with high pressure dominating that SI but GFS is really looking like a fairly major event for Canterbury and a good portion of the NI. Met Service's 7 day rain model is also running with a very complex low pressure system tracking through the lower NI / upper SI Sun - Tues. ECMWF is favouring the high to the Sth being a little more influential too with the low tracking mid NI. Its a ways out yet but if the GFS and Met Service models are on the money then it is certainly looking like a rather interesting end to June.

Will be interesting to see whether the high to the south or the low to the north wins the battle!

Myself · Unread post by **Myself** » Mon 22/06/2009 22:48

The ECMWF is really a non-event for the South Island.
Yes, the MetService model agrees with the GFS, but suddenly it's become clear why. I always thought the MS model was UKMO, but quite clearly from comparing now- it is the GFS. So that's why MS and GFS agree, they are the same. (I mean the 7 day rainfall map now).

I'm inclined to believe the ECMWF ahead of the GFS. Hence I expect settled SI weather but heavy rain for part of the North Island.
Yes, it is a "warm advective" avent. The flow at 500hPa appears to be northwesterly, and at 1000hPa southeasterly. Alarm bells for heavy rain.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 23/06/2009 07:52

Certainly looks like a nice event....

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 23/06/2009 08:23

I always thought the MS model was UKMO, but quite clearly from comparing now- it is the GFS. So that's why MS and GFS agree, they are the same. (I mean the 7 day rainfall map now).

The Met Service have traditionally used UKmet quite a bit but theres no doubting the GFS has been the performing model in recent times.

Lots of weather possibilities with this next system.

GFS for next Monday. 850mb temps indicates more cold air on the way for the country.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 23/06/2009 08:53

The ECMWF is really a non-event for the South Island.

I prefer the look of the ECMWF, it has been showing the Ridge to take hold over the SI with some light east coast wintry showers. Certainly an interesting combination in june to have a high south of NZ and a low over the NorthIsland, can mean a lot of snow somewhere.

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