SOUTHWESTERLIES
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
-
Dean.
- Posts: 1761
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
- Location: Ashburton
Another boring blue sky day today,a gentle breeze and a few scattered clouds.Bring on those southerlies.A couple of mm's yesterday from the northeast and some light snow done to about 1600m .
I read in todays Press Tony T is predicting an end to this mild weather and a return to the usual southerlies and frosts from about the middle of June,bring it on !!!.
Cheers.
I read in todays Press Tony T is predicting an end to this mild weather and a return to the usual southerlies and frosts from about the middle of June,bring it on !!!.
Cheers.
-
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
- Posts: 19103
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Yeah Deano, I couldn't agree with you more, mind you it was lovely up Nelson way. It was really crazy to see those people lying on the beach in Nelson ... and it's June!!!!
Weather this week does looks boring especially with that anticyclone looming over Australia and destined to head our way this coming week.
Regarding Tony T's prediction, he could be using the "After the Shortest Day" scenario whereas traditionally the winter or wintry weather has set-in after the shortest day. I hope it does, it's meant to be winter and now it's the 7th of June, I live in Christchurch and I've forgotten what a frost looks like !!!!!!
JohnGaul
NZTS
Weather this week does looks boring especially with that anticyclone looming over Australia and destined to head our way this coming week.
Regarding Tony T's prediction, he could be using the "After the Shortest Day" scenario whereas traditionally the winter or wintry weather has set-in after the shortest day. I hope it does, it's meant to be winter and now it's the 7th of June, I live in Christchurch and I've forgotten what a frost looks like !!!!!!
JohnGaul
NZTS
-
Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
-
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
- Posts: 19103
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
-
drdisk
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Wed 28/05/2003 01:26
- Location: Hong Kong
Here in HK we saw the Thunderstorm Warning hoisted twice yesterday and thought we were doing well.
Today it has just been hoisted for the fourth time!
That's six times in two days!
And the observatory says we shall have more of the same tomorrow.
The details from the Observatory's various AWS's show that the wind here is pretty light and coming from different directions at most stations.
Today it has just been hoisted for the fourth time!
That's six times in two days!
And the observatory says we shall have more of the same tomorrow.
The details from the Observatory's various AWS's show that the wind here is pretty light and coming from different directions at most stations.
Phil
<><
International Christian School, Hong Kong
ICS e-mail: [email protected]
DrDisk e-mail: [email protected]
About me: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
<><
International Christian School, Hong Kong
ICS e-mail: [email protected]
DrDisk e-mail: [email protected]
About me: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
-
Manukau heads obs
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Do you believe the moon controls the weather Gene like Ken does?
from his website:
"If weather is about the moon and snow is about the weather then logically the moon must be responsible for snowfalls"
and he condradicts himself, on his web site, then gene:
June:
1st half: more Es and SWs
2nd half: more Ns than usual in both islands.
that would mean warmer weather in the 2nd half of june, not colder, with the more northerlies
condradicitons like that are easy to find ....
so i dont put much faith in his opinions myself, but thats just me
from his website:
"If weather is about the moon and snow is about the weather then logically the moon must be responsible for snowfalls"
and he condradicts himself, on his web site, then gene:
June:
1st half: more Es and SWs
2nd half: more Ns than usual in both islands.
that would mean warmer weather in the 2nd half of june, not colder, with the more northerlies
condradicitons like that are easy to find ....
so i dont put much faith in his opinions myself, but thats just me
-
Gene Anton
-
Andy
- Posts: 1438
- Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
- Location: Alexandra
Well it differently looks like turning colder after the middle of the month, much similarly to last year. Looking at the http://www.atmos.albany.edu/weather/gop ... ly_mrf.gif
(this is a useful long range MRF) a big low will affect the country from about the middle of the month. This might be the start of winter, and hopefully the ski season.
(this is a useful long range MRF) a big low will affect the country from about the middle of the month. This might be the start of winter, and hopefully the ski season.
-
Gene Anton
Hi Brian
I'd go more with his actual words warmer and colder. I don't see any contradiction if he says it in so many places. It's on his Freemonth and his coming weather articles. It's also in his article about what brings colder weather. I wouldn't take too much from the wind thing. We HAVE had SWs lately and that is the name on this whole thread, so I think he has scored well there. And even though we've had SWs it's been warmer. And if you know the mountain, Whakakapa can snow very well on a bunch of northerlies.
Yes I have relied on the Moonman for a few years now, for my skiing dates, so I think there's something in it. Seems to be right about 80% of the time
ciao
Gene
I'd go more with his actual words warmer and colder. I don't see any contradiction if he says it in so many places. It's on his Freemonth and his coming weather articles. It's also in his article about what brings colder weather. I wouldn't take too much from the wind thing. We HAVE had SWs lately and that is the name on this whole thread, so I think he has scored well there. And even though we've had SWs it's been warmer. And if you know the mountain, Whakakapa can snow very well on a bunch of northerlies.
Yes I have relied on the Moonman for a few years now, for my skiing dates, so I think there's something in it. Seems to be right about 80% of the time
ciao
Gene
-
Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
-
Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Tony also predicted a colder winter overall, vs Ken saying it would be a generally warmer one. So far things have definitely been warmer. Are you staying with that one, Tony?
Perhaps it will be a mixture of both as the weather can change in a day and we can use guesswork ie they can say we will get northerlies instead its SW or they say snow is on the way and it will be rain instead.
Perhaps it will be a mixture of both as the weather can change in a day and we can use guesswork ie they can say we will get northerlies instead its SW or they say snow is on the way and it will be rain instead.
-
Manukau heads obs
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
the central NI mountains certainly need snow ...the ski season opening keeps getting put back all the time...
yup, we have had traditional swers ...very normal for this time of year.
and NWer's in between.
this next high after the developing tasman low (it gone from blue skies to completely overcast here in only 3 hours)will bring a bit of shortlived s/se colder/clear change.
yup, we have had traditional swers ...very normal for this time of year.
and NWer's in between.
this next high after the developing tasman low (it gone from blue skies to completely overcast here in only 3 hours)will bring a bit of shortlived s/se colder/clear change.
-
Manukau heads obs
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
we will have to wait for the end of the 3 month period, not point in saying anything 1 week into it!
but the tasman is warmer than normal...so you would expect a warmer than normal winter....
but large highs with out much wind will give clear cold frosty nights and bring down the average temperature regardless of warmer sea temperatures (for inland areas), so i can see where tony is coming from.
but the tasman is warmer than normal...so you would expect a warmer than normal winter....
but large highs with out much wind will give clear cold frosty nights and bring down the average temperature regardless of warmer sea temperatures (for inland areas), so i can see where tony is coming from.
-
TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 3006
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
1) The winter
The prediction of cooler for the winter was made 2 months ago before the current La Niña event began to develop, and at a time when a lot of anticyclones were traversing the South Island. I also suggested the cooler bit might apply more to the South Island than the North Island. The logic, as explained at the time, is that in winter the clear skies from the anticyclones allow the frosty nights to get more colder than the clear days get warmer. I think the opposite happens in summer (ie the days get more warmer than the nights get colder). I apologise for the confused grammar, its not the easiest thing to explain.
Things have changed a little now, with the developing La Niña bringing a spurt of westerly airflow in the last 6 weeks, which might even be termed a late autumn. That’s normal for developing La Niña events – while they are developing it seems as if we often see regular periods of westerly flow. Its not till they reach maturity that the westerlies drop away. But I digress…
So, now we don’t expect a cooler than normal winter, but we suggest the predictability is low, and therefore we don’t have any confident prediction. In the absence of that, we may as well plump for near normal, on the basis that normal is what we see most often (in theory – another digression could examine the idea that we hardly ever see a normal season, and the normal is just a statistical mean of two rather extreme types of season). I am not sufficiently convinced that the current SST pattern around NZ is especially warm, or especially likely to stay so through the winter.
2) The next few months
The basis of the prediction that the second half of June and at least the first half of July should see more southerlies than the last 6 weeks is two fold. Firstly, as John pointed out, we have got to get to winter sooner or later, and this year it has been rather later. So, going with the climatology, it’s a pretty safe bet to tell the newspaper reported that July will be colder than June when he asks…
However, we also often see 4-6 week cycles in the patterns, and for the last 6 weeks we have seen a generally northerly influence on the westerly pattern, with the southerly component not doing much (except around Michael’s house). If it follows a 6 week course, then we are due for more southerly influence to start in the second half of June and continue at least into the first half of July. That’s not to say we expect wall to wall southerlies, but perhaps less of a northerly influence on the westerly pattern, and more of a southerly one. And of course I could be completely wrong...
We also seem to have seen another change of phase in the last week or so whereby we are seeing depressions form in the Tasman Sea and over New Zealand, disrupting the westerlies. This is moderately common in winter, and suggests to me that if you do take the burst of westerlies in May to be a late autumn signal, then the atmosphere has now probably slipped into winter mode. Which also suggests that we should start seeing more ‘wintry’ weather from now on.
At the end of the day, telling a reporter that the worst of winter is yet to come is a fairly safe bet at this time of year.
The prediction of cooler for the winter was made 2 months ago before the current La Niña event began to develop, and at a time when a lot of anticyclones were traversing the South Island. I also suggested the cooler bit might apply more to the South Island than the North Island. The logic, as explained at the time, is that in winter the clear skies from the anticyclones allow the frosty nights to get more colder than the clear days get warmer. I think the opposite happens in summer (ie the days get more warmer than the nights get colder). I apologise for the confused grammar, its not the easiest thing to explain.
Things have changed a little now, with the developing La Niña bringing a spurt of westerly airflow in the last 6 weeks, which might even be termed a late autumn. That’s normal for developing La Niña events – while they are developing it seems as if we often see regular periods of westerly flow. Its not till they reach maturity that the westerlies drop away. But I digress…
So, now we don’t expect a cooler than normal winter, but we suggest the predictability is low, and therefore we don’t have any confident prediction. In the absence of that, we may as well plump for near normal, on the basis that normal is what we see most often (in theory – another digression could examine the idea that we hardly ever see a normal season, and the normal is just a statistical mean of two rather extreme types of season). I am not sufficiently convinced that the current SST pattern around NZ is especially warm, or especially likely to stay so through the winter.
2) The next few months
The basis of the prediction that the second half of June and at least the first half of July should see more southerlies than the last 6 weeks is two fold. Firstly, as John pointed out, we have got to get to winter sooner or later, and this year it has been rather later. So, going with the climatology, it’s a pretty safe bet to tell the newspaper reported that July will be colder than June when he asks…
However, we also often see 4-6 week cycles in the patterns, and for the last 6 weeks we have seen a generally northerly influence on the westerly pattern, with the southerly component not doing much (except around Michael’s house). If it follows a 6 week course, then we are due for more southerly influence to start in the second half of June and continue at least into the first half of July. That’s not to say we expect wall to wall southerlies, but perhaps less of a northerly influence on the westerly pattern, and more of a southerly one. And of course I could be completely wrong...
We also seem to have seen another change of phase in the last week or so whereby we are seeing depressions form in the Tasman Sea and over New Zealand, disrupting the westerlies. This is moderately common in winter, and suggests to me that if you do take the burst of westerlies in May to be a late autumn signal, then the atmosphere has now probably slipped into winter mode. Which also suggests that we should start seeing more ‘wintry’ weather from now on.
At the end of the day, telling a reporter that the worst of winter is yet to come is a fairly safe bet at this time of year.
-
Gene Anton
"Tony also predicted a colder winter overall, vs Ken saying it would be a generally warmer one."
Now Tony has written:
The prediction of cooler for the winter was made 2 months ago..things have changed a little now.. so, now we don’t expect a cooler than normal winter..
Thanks Tony..could be another point to the moon! lol
Whatever, warmer temps aren't the choicest news for the ski season. A later beginning usually means cooler temps right into Nov and Dec which aint bad either. here's hoping..
ciao
Gene
St Heliers
Now Tony has written:
The prediction of cooler for the winter was made 2 months ago..things have changed a little now.. so, now we don’t expect a cooler than normal winter..
Thanks Tony..could be another point to the moon! lol
Whatever, warmer temps aren't the choicest news for the ski season. A later beginning usually means cooler temps right into Nov and Dec which aint bad either. here's hoping..
ciao
Gene
St Heliers
-
Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
-
Gene Anton
B. McDavitt has said in today's Herald that the rest of June will be warm. Ooh..I think wrong, and both Ken R. and Tony T. would be taking an opposite tack too. Especially as a 3-day snow warning has AT LAST been issued for Whakapapa. Sorry to harp on about it but Ken R. predicted snow there for the 15th-16th, and some for Turoa for 13th. (I have his whole-season snow reports - good value)
ciao
Gene
St Heliers
ciao
Gene
St Heliers
-
Manukau heads obs
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
-
Gene Anton
My last post wasn't. Is it a crime now to be watching the moon. Horrors!
Any experienced skier will tell you that in winter the full moon brings snow. My chief interest is in snow and in who can predict it. I'm open-minded, science-based, and interested in anyone who gives out useful information based on any theory. Perhaps you might consider putting up some useful predictions yourself(if you can), instead of labelling people "moon believers".
ciao
Gene
St Heliers
Any experienced skier will tell you that in winter the full moon brings snow. My chief interest is in snow and in who can predict it. I'm open-minded, science-based, and interested in anyone who gives out useful information based on any theory. Perhaps you might consider putting up some useful predictions yourself(if you can), instead of labelling people "moon believers".
ciao
Gene
St Heliers