ECMWF Have...

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 29/07/2004 09:38

It will be interesting to see how low the snow falls in Canterbury this morning. I think places like Hamner Springs normaly get a dumping in this type of situation.

Chains are essential on the Lewis Pass this morning. I'm not at all surprised - while stopping for a lunch break at Maruia Springs (just below the Pass summit), it felt cold enough so that any precipitation (it was overcast at the time) should fall as snow. I couldn't access the Hanmer webcam this morning.

Chch is around 4-5C this morning and still wet (though lighter than before), so snow could easily be quite low inland, at least in the valleys and basins.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 29/07/2004 09:39

I got 20-22mm by this morning from the recent rains, precisely what Tony forecasted.

Yes Brian, August 28th was the month (and day) of the 1992 snow storm here in Canterbury. Winter still has a bit to go.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 29/07/2004 09:50

I believe you. The last 4 years winter has lasted till November

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Winter still has a bit to go.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 29/07/2004 09:55

tich wrote:Chains are essential on the Lewis Pass this morning.

Looks like any which fell was all confined to the upper parts of the South Island.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 29/07/2004 10:01

Fujita Phil wrote:
CbFan wrote:I see your confused tree and raise you the following in our garden:
Sorry... I'm folding. I only had a pair of mossy lawns and a icy fish pond this morning

HAHAHA! My kind of game...

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 29/07/2004 10:24

I missed that luckily

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Yes Brian, August 28th was the month (and day) of the 1992 snow storm here in Canterbury. Winter still has a bit to go.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 29/07/2004 11:27

Picture not that clear The monitor says -53c Distance to destination 6:49 37.000 ft travel distance from destination 1,2xx km(Auckland)and caption Above and Below same instant date was 27 August 1992.Was 10c that morning with rain I remember

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 29/07/2004 12:19

yeah, but, the origins of the air mass will be from the sub polar regions, coming around the high,from a long way south., and so i dont think there will be all that moisture in it....so wont be much rain me thinks

Yes, cold dry air, though possibly moist enough at low levels to give weak showers to exposed coasts. Another frosty episode looks likely.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 29/07/2004 18:06

Weekend wintry Low now looks like moving to the South of the South Island, keeping much of the precip to the very far South.

Looks like plenty of frost about early next week even in the North.

Next week will start very cold but by mid week it will be warming up with moist Northern air moving onto us.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 29/07/2004 18:17

Looks cold for sure.

Will any snow get into Central Otago? or will it be mainly confined to the south east.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 29/07/2004 20:25

Well it certainly looks like a cold spell coming, but how cold we'll have to wait and see, though the flow should probably be more southeasterly than southerly or southwesterly. And next week, it could well be the case that the cold air stays over NZ, even if the flow tends more northeasterly, as big anticyclones can do a good job at retaining the cold air from the preceeding cold southerly outbreaks in winter.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 29/07/2004 21:19

Will any snow get into Central Otago?

Answer to that question depends on how cloud develops with the trough.

But I would expect some snow in Central Otago.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 30/07/2004 02:03

NZstorm wrote:
Will any snow get into Central Otago?
Answer to that question depends on how cloud develops with the trough.

But I would expect some snow in Central Otago.

If there's one thing that weather prediction has taught me, it's that everybody is always wrong, including the metservice.

Lake Tekapo and Twizel got snow a few days ago. Nobody predicted it.

Then everyman and his dog predicted snow for the MacKenzie yesterday and today - heavy snow - but we got none at all.

I believe the weather when it gets here. Anybody trying to predict it is a flake and a charlatan until they can prove otherwise.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 30/07/2004 06:57

yeah, its all those mountains and ranges gary
very hard to predict how they will influence the weather, as the weather moves over that area

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 30/07/2004 09:46

Manukau heads observer wrote:yeah, its all those mountains and ranges gary
very hard to predict how they will influence the weather, as the weather moves over that area

Well, the only thing I know about weather forecasting is that I know nothing about weather forecasting.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 30/07/2004 14:31

Dont look much unless a low forms on the front between the 2 highs otherwise the top high will retreat northwards with the rain over the NI and the SI gets a fine clearance

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 30/07/2004 19:36

Gary Roberts wrote:If there's one thing that weather prediction has taught me, it's that everybody is always wrong

Then you havent studied hard enough...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 30/07/2004 19:38

Gary Roberts wrote:Well, the only thing I know about weather forecasting is that I know nothing about weather forecasting.

Ah yes, 100% for that one Gary, go to the top of the class