Strong W flow (thunder, gales, heavy rain) Aug 25 - Sep 3

[Storm Struck]

Looks like from Tuesday next week temperatures should warm up again with a quite active front hitting the west coast of both islands.
Gale force winds out east possibly severe for some inland areas Tuesday/Wednesday.
Thunderstorms should be quite active along the west coast of the both islands, and maybe something to watch for late Wednesday for Canterbury if a SW change moves up.
The sunshine hours for Canterbury must be getting up there, and definatly beating June/July this year its great.

[Andy]

Yea some warm days would be nice. Don't forget we had almost a week of cloudy and rainy weather not to long ago!

[Janos]

Its been a pleasantly all be it overcast August down here .
Very few frosts no southerlies that i can recall.
I might even go so far and suggest that its been a little bit unusual.

[Richard]

Its been a pleasantly all be it overcast August down here .
Very few frosts no southerlies that i can recall.
I might even go so far and suggest that its been a little bit unusual.

Yer no southerlies so far for Aug is so unusual.

[Michael]

The parent low is 940 hpa between the continent and the Australian bight at present.

[Storm Struck]

Still looks like a very active strong system to attack much of the country from tomorrow afternoon onwards and into Wednesday.
Embedded thunderstorms for the west coast of the South Island and possibly as far north as Taranaki,with it being quite squally there's always the chance for (Small) tornado's.
Gales east of the ranges from tomorrow night especailly more northerly at first then turning NW over night along with some good spill over rain.
I am picking Wednesday/Thursday some places across Canterbury could reach into the early 20's.
S-SW pattern look to become established by next week which could prove interesting.

[Storm Struck]

Just changed the topic title a bit as it looks like Sunday and again early next week a significant cold SW change moves through and one to watch.
16C this morning nice and mild indeed, the N-NE wind is keeping a lid on the fast rising temperature though.
Winds should pick up from this evening with gale northerlies, then i am picking it will swing more gale NW overnight and into the early hours where there could be some big severe gusts for some places.
Along with the scatterd rain its going to be a rough night ahead, may even see lightning to the west.
I am picking temperatures around 20-24C for Wednesday/Thursday, as Australia has been having some record breaking temperatures and as we know the flow we have is likly to drag that warm air across the Tasman.
The Snow on the mountains has reduced quite alot so there wont be much of a cooling factor there with the NWer, except for Friday perhaps when its more a Westerly quarter.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes the ENE here is stopping temps from being in the early 20's for sure. The breeze is around 25km/h 30km.\/h at times and a fresh one yet still 18 degrees already! I agree I think that tomorrow and Thursday will see temps around the low possibly mid twenties in some isolated areas. Friday should see upper teens and then warm into the 20's again on Saturday. Chance of some brief heavy showers on Sunday, maybe some thunder possible.

As of 1150am have now reached 19.4 degrees with a ENE still.

[Andrew Massie]

Quite interesting how the land heats the Easterly wind...

Chch temps.JPG

[Storm Struck]

Turned more a strong gusty Northerly now here and 18.7C.
I am surprised there isnt any high cloud today, i was expecting to wake up to thick high cloud with it being a northerly flow it often brings a stationary strip of high cloud.
Perhaps because the main front doesnt hit until tonight on the west coast.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The more northerly flow has kicked in in Timaru. Currently 21 degrees there! Its still around 19.5 here as the east north east wind hasnt turned more northerly yet. Hopefully it will sometime soon. Rain starting to set in now on the westcoast. Hokitika getting 5.4mm an hour now and expect a lot more for you west coast people! Infact this may only be the entree to the following system around the weekend for the west coast

The very few high cloud spots that are around a clearly moving from the NW to SE direction and rather quickly considering its high cloud so muct be very strong NW up there just not down here.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Wow! The wind had changed NNW here now and we are on 21 degrees now! Maybe get to 22 today.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

I seem greedy talking on here! (last 3 posts!) However, Sunday looks very interesting with very very close isobars indicating very strong gales and surely severe in some areas. The low seems to hit at 960hpa as it crosses the south island from the west and deepen into the 950's. Tonight, overnight and Sunday will be the most eventful!

[Storm Struck]

It warmed up nicly around 3pm when the winds dropped off completly, up to 21C which was very nice indeed.
Calm at the moment but i expect the winds to pick up from about 10pm atleast, no doubt the fire service will be busy overnight in some areas.
250-300mm of rain over a 24hr period is a fair dolop, prediction from the Met Service south of Otira.
Yes that low on Sunday/Monday makes this one overnight (984hpa) look like nothing .
Currently a pleasent 17C.

[Vertigo]

very nice looking lightning band incoming on the west coast.

[NZstorm]

I would say that storm off the West Coast is a supercell. 500mb flow is NW 80kts! Will it have the legs to make the West Coast. GFS suggests it will run out of instability.

[Tornado Tim]

Heck the lightning radar is going ballistic!!!!

[mikestormchaser]

Well its currently 13.3C in my area with a gusty E/NE wind flow, interesting to see that lightning radar tim it is really going off.
How far is a supercell thunderstorm likely to travel do you know guys?
Was beautiful day today i expected those temps to be as they were this morning, what a great feeling to wake up to and walk outside.
BRING ON SUMMER!

[Razor]

Surely something like that would spill over the divide quite significantly????

[Cameo2]

No it won't be a supercell, they just can't happen in our neck of the woods, especially out at sea, just some great convection

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Hokitika last two hours has had 8.4mm and 10.8mm respectively. I wish I was across visiting the family in westport now! Infact this whole week for that matter. They are having sustained winds at 70km.h there at the moment too. I hope the little puppy I took across there last week doesnt get too freaked by the weather though! Still no sign of the northerly here. Just a Easterly breeze

[NZstorm]

No it won't be a supercell, they just can't happen in our neck of the woods, especially out at sea, just some great convection

Some good shear there quite supportive of supercells if not organised multicells. Unfortunately they are all out at sea. LOL. The gfs keeps the best moisture/instability out at sea.

[Cameo2]

You reckon...? supercell? Na the best we would ever get here is a mesoscale convective complex, even then you would need significant water surface temps you would normally get in Summer, but yeah we'll never really know lol, toooooo far away!

[Storm Struck]

Steady to heavy rain band coming in going by the 10pm radar, that came on very quickly.
The gales will start up soon i would imagine.
That sure is one beaut of a storm out to sea alright, locals report thunder lightning and heavy rain in Buller this hour.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes the family in Westport that I was staying with last week said the new puppy we took them is scared shitless and that the ladders being blown over and huge storm hitting them at the moment. I am keeping in touch with her at the moment. Yes maybe some flashes to the west can be soon soon!