Importance of private/amateur weather observers

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 02/08/2004 15:29

Without devaluing the work of professional meteorologists, I'm wondering if people here on these boards agree with me that private amateur weather observers and recorders also have an very important role in promoting the understanding and predicting of weather. Meterologists use complex science to work out the movement of systems and how they're likely to affect us, but local observers can build up a knowledge of how these systems can affect indidvidual areas, eg which places are more prone to severe hailstorms. I think this is important, especially considering NZ's complex geography.

I know that collecting statistics for things like tempertaure, rainfall, and sunshine is vital in understanding meteorology, but I also believe written descriptions of weather events (ie weather diaries) should be considered very important as well. For example statistics for a particular day might tell you that it got to a 13C maximum with 25mm of rain falling. A weather diary entry could also tell you that the 13C may have been reached in the morning, and the 15mm fell in the afternoon, in the form of a heavy downpour.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 02/08/2004 15:42

Totally agree Tich,

I'm probably not as avid a fan as some of the people on here, but i must say i respect the efforts that people like yourself go to to gain an understanding of mother natures finest.

I actually wish that i could do what you guys do, but with work and my other hobby (which is turntable djing) i dont have much time left except to look up at the sky whenever i can and try to nut something out.

Funny thing is that i actually get pretty much all of my forcast info from this forum, usually from the the very accurate observations of NZStorm, TonyT, Tich, aaron wilkinson, manukau heads observer etc etc, and i find that these predictions are on here a good day before metservice says anything.

That is the reason i joined this forum, is so that i could talk to likeminded people about things that only a select few appreciate (most of my friends just think i'm a bit wierd cos i get a bit funny whenever a Cb is nearby!!). And what i found after joining is that my knowledge is absolutely insignificant compared with others, but thats a great starting point as far as i'm concerned because i love learning, esp. about things i enjoy.

But anyways, i guess i'm rambling like an old blackberry bush!. But to answer your Q, most definately

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 02/08/2004 15:48

Some of them like Bob McDavitt,Augie Auer and some others enjoy their jobs and show interest but then theres problably others only do it because they get paid for it

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Mon 02/08/2004 16:36

Whereever I have lived in NZ in the last 35 years I have kept weather diaries and daily observations in the towns I have lived in

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 02/08/2004 16:39

tich wrote:Without devaluing the work of professional meteorologists, I'm wondering if people here on these boards agree with me that private amateur weather observers and recorders also have an very important role in promoting the understanding and predicting of weather.

I dont think you will find any meteorologist who disagrees with this (although those for whom the weather is just a job, rather than a passion, may attach less importance to the idea). Weather is simply too complex to be described adequately by scientific endeavour alone. We all need the input of the people "who notice things" to complete the picture.

One of the sad things about the growth of automatic weather stations is that there are fewer and fewer lay people actively involved. And while I greatly value and admire this community we have here, I feel a little sad that there are only 70-odd of us. Surely there are more people out there who share the passion and want to talk about it?!?

Manukau heads obs · Mon 02/08/2004 19:23

I agree

My dad kept rainfall records and a diary, and his mother kept a diary, and even a great grandmother wrote down the wind direction/weather for the day, etc!

the weather does repeat somewhat....i.e, you can think back, now, when this situation happened before, what then followed on from that....

i.e like the easterly surge that the hauraki gulf/auckland area is prone to getting....which resulted in drizzle and overcast skies all day, despite there being a ridge of high pressure over us....i.e that front that went up past east cape...and came back around and onto us up here....you get to know from past experiences that happens....and the forecasters know that,,,but were a little bit caught out this time (but got onto it quickly)

Manukau heads obs · Mon 02/08/2004 19:27

and i am humbled to have my name appear next to the likes of nzstorm, tonyt,Tich, aaron wilkinson
etc

truly humbled

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 02/08/2004 21:34

Manukau heads observer wrote:and i am humbled to have my name appear next to the likes of nzstorm, tonyt,Tich, aaron wilkinson
etc

truly humbled

Dont get carried away Brian, it just means you're now one of the ones who can be blamed when the forecast is wrong!

Manukau heads obs · Mon 02/08/2004 21:39

yeah, and that then tends to put people off like me making any forecasts at all......farmers often ask me when should they cut there hay...
i dont tell them, yes, no, but instead try to give them all the facts....but it then gets pretty confusing, and they are no better off at the end of it, LOL
but I have never got my hay wet (ok maybe once) in 13 years now....
but it did mean this last summer not making the hay until march!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 02/08/2004 21:43

Hello, is that Blue Skies Weather?

Yes.

Can you tell me what the weather is going to do next week please?

No, but I can give you a forecast...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 02/08/2004 22:18

I have been keeping detailed weather diaries since 1988 when I moved here. Bob Crowder down the road has been keeping his weather records since the early 60's when he came out here from England.

I like refering back in my diary to a weather event that may be similar to another event and it may be interesting to see what the consequences are or may not be!

I think in some ways that the professionals do look upon people like us, the amateurs, weather observers and I do feel that we are an important part in the meteorlolgical world ....even michael and his SW Gales

ohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 02/08/2004 23:08

Thanks very much C-nimbus but I don't think I deserve anything like that yet.

I'm worried about getting things wrong and have put off posting predictions but the other day I took a punt and posted a prediction, and it didn't come off!

I think I'm going to be slightly biased aswell, I'm always going to want a thunderstorm so if I think there's the slightest chance of something happening, I'll run with it.

So, due to what I have just said I feel I must calm myself and only say something if it looks good. But storms can be a hard thing to predict in the first place, even for a pro (am I right TonyT?, NZstorm? - you pratically are pro!). I coud tell just prior to an event but a few days out I'll be lucky if I get anything right. And I'm only new to this, a bit more experiance must be gained by me yet. Well...., maybe SI West coast storms are a bit easier.

But in the end, very humbled

like Brian.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Tue 03/08/2004 08:06

aaaawwww thats no problems guys....credit where credits due..

i agree with tonyT too, how is it that there is only 70-odd peeps on this forum????

afterall NZ weather systems are dynamic and changing all the time, and people seem to notice the weather.

Just imagine a weather forum for Alice Spings.....!!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 03/08/2004 08:50

Although I go on about the SW gales,I really enjoy the weather and keep "books" with the maps out of the papers and other interesting stuff for a while now

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I have been keeping detailed weather diaries since 1988 when I moved here. Bob Crowder down the road has been keeping his weather records since the early 60's when he came out here from England.

...even michael and his SW Gales

ohnGaul
NZTS

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 03/08/2004 09:52

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:But storms can be a hard thing to predict in the first place, even for a pro (am I right TonyT?, NZstorm? - you pratically are pro!). I coud tell just prior to an event but a few days out I'll be lucky if I get anything right.

Its fairly easy to see that storms are likely in a *region* some days out, but that doesnt mean you will get a storm yourself, at your place. That can often only be predicted a few hours before it happens. By "a region" I mean a broad area, such as the West Coast, or the central North Island, or Canterbury and Otago, or whatever.

Its the age old conumdrum for forecasting - if I predict a few isolated showers for Canterbury and it rains a bit in Ashburton then 20,000 people put a tick by the forecast and nod wisely. But if the showers miss Christchurch then 300,000 people who took their coats to work and didnt do their washing start muttering under their breath about the forecast being wrong again. Yet, we often cant tell until the day of the weather event itself (and oftentimes not even then) which places within a region will get a storm (or a shower, or a rainbow, or whatever).

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 03/08/2004 10:59

Thank Tony, all of what you've written is understandable and rings true. Maybe it would be an idea to have a trip out to your forecasting (place?) sometime to see what goes on.... Would be interesting to see.

Meanwhile, I secretly plot to go and find Gary

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 03/08/2004 15:01

One of the sad things about the growth of automatic weather stations is that there are fewer and fewer lay people actively involved. And while I greatly value and admire this community we have here, I feel a little sad that there are only 70-odd of us. Surely there are more people out there who share the passion and want to talk about it?!?

There certainly are - see the Canterbury Weather Watchers for example. However, many of these people don't have regular, if any access to the internet (which often isn't reliable in many rural areas), and/or don't have enough time to use the net often.

I'm interested in this because I'd like to develop a database/inventory of private NZ weather observers, with the aim of establishing a nationwide network of such observers. This is only an idea at this stage, but recent disastrous events mean that anything that helps advance understanding of our weather and how its variations affect different areas should be looked at seriously. Sure watching the weather/storms is a hobby for most of us, but we've all seen the damage that flooding and other severe storm events can do.

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Importance of private/amateur weather observers

Importance of private/amateur weather observers

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