A Bigga Trough's' a'Comin' and a Goin'

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 18/10/2009 11:16

sure are a few heavy showers about today

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 18/10/2009 11:49

Abit of a cooler day today with the southerly, only had light drizzly rain overnight and roughly 3mm.
A few sporadical drops before though.
I would have thought there would be a greater risk for thunderstorms tomorrow than a ditsy low risk that the MS have up.
Call it wishful thinking but i reackon some good coastal thunderstorms will happen south of Christchurch tomorrow afternoon, slight gut feeling.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 18/10/2009 12:01

Just had a couple of very heavy showers come through, but nothing unremarkable.

Quite cool out, 12.4Â°C presently so I'm not expecting much to happen.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 18/10/2009 13:34

some good coastal thunderstorms will happen south of Christchurch tomorrow afternoon,

Unless there is a dramatic turn around in the numbers the risk looks very low Jason. Big problem for convection chances tomorrow is the upper air will not be unduly cold. Also the trough doesn't look very strong.

Quite cool out, 12.4Â°C presently so I'm not expecting much to happen.

Not looking much over Auckland either.

The surface dp is as 13C but I think the real dp is more like 10C as the moisture is very shallow today.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/10/2009 13:40

Many whitecaps here now,increased as the wind is slowly going "around".Quite warm on 16c here though,we actually had more rain and wind than yesterday here.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 18/10/2009 14:10

Todays sounding from Whenuapai. Shows reasonably unstable air. But there is nothing like a front/convergence to focus the convection today.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/10/2009 14:16

Jasestorm wrote: I would have thought there would be a greater risk for thunderstorms tomorrow than a ditsy low risk that the MS have up.
Call it wishful thinking but i reackon some good coastal thunderstorms will happen south of Christchurch tomorrow afternoon, slight gut feeling.

Sadly Jase, I have to aggree with Steven W on this one

It's sad for us guys that we miss out on the action when other places around the country ie. western and northern NI can have a real 'feast'

JohnGaul
NZThS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/10/2009 14:21

How long does it take to get to say Greymouth from Chch? Never been on that road? 2 hrs,perhaps go across there,no furthur than Tekuiti from here.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 18/10/2009 14:42

Its about 4 hours Micheal roughly.
Ah well can only but keep looking ahead for better possibilities as we get into the longer and warmer days.

Cameron M · Unread post by **Cameron M** » Sun 18/10/2009 15:16

Some dark looking Cb clouds to the west towards Nelson. There was a good short rumble of thunder not long a go from it wasn't really expecting it.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 18/10/2009 15:23

It's sad for us guys that we miss out on the action when other places around the country ie. western and northern NI can have a real 'feast'

I think it will be an interesting spring/early summer down there when the sea breezes start up, El Nino should keep the cold upper troughs coming .
We have had quite a few Tasman Sea lows this spring which bring good moisture down onto northern NZ, good for storms here.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/10/2009 16:59

OT 1983 el nino summer had lots of hail showers following NE or NW conditionsand documented damage by stones and "Southerly busters" down there.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/10/2009 17:09

Yes, looks like the trough is finally moving away from the country and a new system is moving towards us.

JohnGaul
NZThS

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Sun 18/10/2009 17:43

Check out that landcare research satellite image showing the boil up type thunderstorms on the s.i. west coast. I've not seen that before, except inland buller otherwise its rare indeed.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 18/10/2009 18:00

Michael wrote:How long does it take to get to say Greymouth from Chch? Never been on that road? 2 hrs,perhaps go across there,no furthur than Tekuiti from here.

The thing with the South Islands West Coast storms are,they are normally associated with heavy overcast skies and are not always visible when approaching from the west.This is due to the steep assent of the main divide that backs up any of that on shore weather.
There are times where storms can be seen on the coast, but i'm talking about being on the beach damn near and getting as far from the mountains as possible,but for us Cantabs, its a long way to go just to sit in the car and wait in the torrential rain hoping for something, but only to get a very watery flash of light that you dont even know what direction it came from.

Thats not storm chasing as we know it

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 18/10/2009 18:54

It's sad for us guys that we miss out on the action when other places around the country

Thursday could be an unstable day for Canterbury.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/10/2009 20:23

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes, looks like the trough is finally moving away from the country and a new system is moving towards us.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Whats the new system? that high whenever it moves away to the east? Like the DSC in your avator John. $\:D/$

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/10/2009 22:28

Whats the new system? that high whenever it moves away to the east?

A series of cold fronts moving across us. One could, And I say could bring us some thunder related sounds on Thursday, this is depending of the lightning flash if such should occur.

Like the DSC in your avator John.

If you look closely, you can see me climbing up the steps into the cab of it. DSC 2718 in the Middleton Yard 1983.

JohnGaul
NZThS

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 18/10/2009 22:44

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:If you look closely, you can see me climbing up the steps into the cab of it. DSC 2718 in the Middleton Yard 1983.

Wow thats ancient times

i was still 5 years from being born

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Mon 19/10/2009 09:46

If you look close enough I believe there is a a dinosaur in the background?
Back on track so to speak.. troughy thing may have come and gone but still lingering aftereffects this morning, very troppo feel with a couple of solid anvils floating past.. pretty much farewell to this system but she did well

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 19/10/2009 10:55

Yes, some heat showers this morning with the trough passing over.
photo, nice Cu development over central Auckland but the Cb are weak

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 19/10/2009 13:58

Nice shot spwill.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 19/10/2009 17:15

Yes there was certainly some nice looking cumulus bubbling up today, I am glad someone took a picture, and a good one too!

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Mon 19/10/2009 17:47

Convection deepening inland between Oamaru and Timaru ahead of cold front. Lightning strike occurred 5 minutes ago.

Paul

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 19/10/2009 17:55

Paul Mallinson wrote:Convection deepening inland between Oamaru and Timaru ahead of cold front. Lightning strike occurred 5 minutes ago.

Paul

Thanks Paul, will keep an eye out.
Things looking rather settled here with a light NE.

JohnGaul
NZThS

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