Thunderstorms, Southland,Otago,South Canterbury 5th November

[Storm Struck]

Its looking like a good set up for thunderstorms especailly for Southland and Otago, South Canterbury may see some action too up to about Ashburton.
The risk diminishes as it moves up the coastline, but there's nothing to say that the CB's could keep going once they reach Christchurch.
What a way to kick into Guyfawkes if thats the case, mother natures own fireworks.
I will have to see how things shape up tomorrow as to whether i consider a chase.

[Chris Raine]

Ac Castellanus around Oamaru this evening

[Tornado Tim]

Ac Castellanus around Oamaru this evening

Hopefully it will pop up tomorrow in the morning, if it does you may want to report it to M/S and or post it here, It is quite a reliable indictor if the atmosphere is unstable and if there is a chance of thunder later on....

[spwill]

a good set up for thunderstorms especailly for Southland and Otago,

If I was chasing down there tomorrow I would be concerned about the late timing of the front.

[mikestormchaser]

Yes i think id rather chase aswel then let off fireworks if that was the case but the risk would be pretty low id imagine.
So i think ill stick to letting off fireworks tomorrow night for now
Nice warm day it was though today, that NW sure had some punch in it with some big gusts.
This morning was very warm great to get up to

[Michael]

Probably sth Canterbury has more chance with a NE today before the change late afternoon.Also the NP radar is not working?
Also next week looks good for them,weaker westerly flow for there meaning north easterlies?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

In TC this afternoon was some weak Cu development in an otherwise hazy clear blue sky. Still is
Looks like nature's Guy Fawkes is going to be a bit of a fizzrer this year.
I see an anticyclone is going to remain near to stationary in the Tasman Sea for the next week then fizzle out.
Hopefully some rodents will come up on it's SW flank and give us a burst of 'energy weather'

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Dean.]

As long as they are not over by the 16th.Finally returning to the mainland after 5 years in Cairns.
Will be reporting from Ashvegas once again.

[03Stormchaser]

As long as they are not over by the 16th.Finally returning to the mainland after 5 years in Cairns.
Will be reporting from Ashvegas once again.

Are you back to live in Ashburton?? Be good to have a forum observer there to keep us up todate with thunderstorm as the head up the coast!

[Storm Struck]

Yes i noticed those weakish type CU clouds today inland and towards your favourite thunderstorm corner John .
Not alot of action firing to the south yet, although there was a few strikes on the tracker down south not long ago.
Whats happening in Dunedin folks?.

[snowstormwatcher]

fine day here no sign of thunderstorms yet but a few cu clouds out east this afternoon

[spwill]

No storms Otago/Southland this afternoon however some strikes near the south coast now as the Front starts to move north through Otago.

[mattyj46]

Nothing going on here, went to the gym at 4pm, was warm and fairly overcast, came out at 5.10pm, was pouring down with rain, gusty and chilly.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just saw his worship Tim shadbolt, the Lord Mayor of Invercargill and his deputy on Close -Up and the weather looked as though it was just coming onto rain.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Ac Castellanus around Oamaru this evening

It is quite a reliable indictor if the atmosphere is unstable and if there is a chance of thunder later on....

I don't think so despite what a lot of weather books and other people say

JohnGaul
NZThS

[mattyj46]

Just saw his worship Tim shadbolt, the Lord Mayor of Invercargill and his deputy on Close -Up and the weather looked as though it was just coming onto rain.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Looked worse than what it was, well in my part of town anyway, bit of rain for about 4 mintues then quickly moved on

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It's NW here now and fairly fine. nothing sexy really

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Andrew Massie]

It's NW here now and fairly fine. nothing sexy really

JohnGaul
NZThS

Hope your wife doesn't read this forum!

[Chris Raine]

Front through Oamaru around 2100 , moderate shower following the squall line , no thunder activity at this stage . We had Ac Castellanus over Oamaru Bay again this arvo ,but maybe insufficient residual heating or instability considering time that front went through

[NZstorm]

maybe insufficient residual heating or instability considering time that front went through

yes, timing is everything with these systems as the instability is largely driven by afternoon heating/sea breeze interaction.
System came through too late.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It's NW here now and fairly fine. nothing sexy really

JohnGaul
NZThS

Hope your wife doesn't read this forum!

JohnGaul
NZThS

[snowstormwatcher]

no thunderstorms here yesterday i think the front came through to late in the day

[03Stormchaser]

Yet another metservice forecasting blunder?? This is twice within 6 days they have made quite a mammoth 'over' forecast. There was thunderstorms last night but there 'severe' threat has alot to be desired. A shame we haven't heard why there Nov 1st forecast was so wrong aswell.

[Storm Struck]

I think also further south a NWer got going ahead of the front which would have killed any possible good thunderstorm development.
If the front was more timely and came through at say 3pm for Canterbury against the keen onshore NE we had it would have been all on for us.
The only reason a breezy NWer got up late last night here was because the NE had died out by this time, without having that usual battle between the two winds.
But what a fantastic day it was today, making up for the crap October we had so far.
Abit of CU about inland again and around BP, more or so out over Sumner way for a good chunk of the day.
Low risk tomorrow for thunderstorms provided the NE can keep going before the brief change in the evening.

[spwill]

Jasestorm wrote,

I think also further south a NWer got going ahead of the front which would have killed any possible good thunderstorm development.

Coolish temps ( max 17C Dunedin) suggest little in the way NW flow but it may have been part of the problem. . My guess is there was a lack of the forecast NorthEasterly and the late arrival of the front was always going to be an issue with the falling surface temps.
The pre frontal NW for Canterbury was in the MetService forecast

Upper air warmed as you went north so TS risk dropped away north of Dunedin.

There were isolated storms yesterday for fiorldland and near the south Coast