Canterbury Thunderstorms 21st January 2010

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I don't think the chances look very good but then you never know?

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Storm Struck]

I dont think the chances will be overly great as MS has indicted on thier charts, maybe some afternoon heavy heat showers as it will be quite humid.

[NZstorm]

My thoughts for the South Island are the convective possibilities will be inland where there may be some good heating/convergence. As the upper air is relatively warm, surface temperatures will be need to heat up into the mid 20's or higher to generate the instability. The gfs likes inland Otago on todays 00Z run. Will be quite good moisture over the South Island tomorrow. The negative is the whole profile is moist so could end up with lots of layered cloud that reduces the heating.

[Michael]

the ecmwf shows it probably too southerly and cold.

[snowstormwatcher]

Nothing here yet to much cloud cover may have been something inland away from all this coastal cloud.

[RODALCO]

The 5 O' clock news just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Central Otago and Dunedin area's.
There might be some action coming up there tonight.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A few 'bubblees' blowing up inland, ie. Cu fists etc., but nothing much to 'wet your pants' over

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Andrew Massie]

A few 'bubblees' blowing up inland, ie. Cu fists etc., but nothing much to 'wet your pants' over

JohnGaul
NZThS

Particularly if you're going to eat them, eh John

[Andrew Massie]

I LOVE these!:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Issued by MetService at 04:42 pm Thursday 21 January 2010.
Valid until 05:30 pm Thursday 21 January 2010.

This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
CENTRAL OTAGO, GORE, CLUTHA and DUNEDIN.

At 04:30 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near TUAPEKA
MOUTH, MILLERS FLAT, ETTRICK, EDIEVALE, BEAUMONT, RAES JUNCTION, WAIPORI FALLS
and LAKE MAHINERANGI.

These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the westsouthwest, and are
expected to lie near MILLERS FLAT, ETTRICK, EDIEVALE, RAES JUNCTION and
WAITAHUNA at 05:00 pm and near WAIPAHI, MILLERS FLAT, ETTRICK, EDIEVALE, TAPANUI
,
KELSO and WAITAHUNA at 05:30 pm.

These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain.

Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies
and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in force for CENTRAL OTAGO, CLUTHA, DUNEDIN,
NORTH OTAGO, SOUTHERN LAKES and SOUTHLAND.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms
approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

This warning is due to be updated or lifted by 05:30 pm Thursday 21 January 2010
.

[Captain Salty]

st albans lightening tracker showing up a lot of strikes to the NE of chch. the templeton tracker shows none lol

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Have they got a LT in St. Albans?

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Captain Salty]

http://weather.stalbans.net.nz/wx9.html

[optrex]

I think its fair to say that the St.Albans one is not calibrated correctly and they are more likely picking up the North Island strikes as it doesn't seem to correlate with any third party data. I know you mentioned Templeton, but there is also another one just down at Springston that is calibrated regularly and picks up the SI storms pretty accurately. NZ Storm Tracker

[mattyj46]

Might of headed out for a look if I had finished work eariler, and if I didn't have to goto the gym in 10mins, hopefully we see a bit of rain.

[Captain Salty]

there is also another one just down at Springston that is calibrated regularly and picks up the SI storms pretty accurately. NZ Storm Tracker

thanks didn't know about that one

and yea, the stuff to the NE of chch on the st albans tracker looks a lot like what's happening over the central NI

[Storm Struck]

Having said that before this low cloud rolled back in there was a CB to the NE of Clarkville where i was working.
Plenty of CB showers went up after 1pm inland, and now look like they are forming nicly inland on the 6pm radar.
I am thinking some steady falls of rain for a time in the next 3-4 hours over much of Canterbury as those showers develope out more.
It certainly has been muggy today with the rain off and on, the sun broke through for awhile around 3pm which made it very warm and humid.

[Richard]

Big CV's close to me but moving SE and will may miss my area ,NO chance of any reaching the plains

[Storm Struck]

Heavy shower inland from Timaru as of 7pm radar, and id say a thunderstorm around Cheviot area going by the fact there's purple in that area .

[snowstormwatcher]

Raining here just heard some thunder north northeast of here.

[Richard]

Heavy shower inland from Timaru as of 7pm radar, and id say a thunderstorm around Cheviot area going by the fact there's purple in that area .

Yer Jase,been looking at really dark cloud about half way between Cheviot and here,starting to fizz out now though but the storm in the photo is due north of here and is moving SSE

[NZstorm]

Looks like a nice burst of lightning over the foothills last hour inland from Asburton.

[Richard]

15 mins later

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just came back from shopping at Hornby.
Looking stormy towards the mountains before we left but sadly low cloud moved in from the NE so don't know what going on there, probaly nothing.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Twizel Dave]

Hi every one I'm a new guy here. Just wanted to tell you that there is a super thunder storm going off over Twizel right now. It has been crashing away for an hour or more. Some of the thunder has been directly over head and quite defeaning with some very bright flashes. The local lightning detector is going a bit crazy. This would be the best thunder storm I have seen over the Waitaki valley for a very long time. It's pretty exciting stuff!

Dave from Twizel

[Andrew Massie]

Hi every one I'm a new guy here. Just wanted to tell you that there is a super thunder storm going off over Twizel right now. It has been crashing away for an hour or more. Some of the thunder has been directly over head and quite defeaning with some very bright flashes. The local lightning detector is going a bit crazy. This would be the best thunder storm I have seen over the Waitaki valley for a very long time. It's pretty exciting stuff!

Dave from Twizel

Hi and Welcome, Twizel Dave! Sounds great down there!!