Possible heavy rain for NI mid week

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TonyT
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Possible heavy rain for NI mid week

Unread post by TonyT »

The latest model runs have a nasty depression deepening rapidly east of the North Island on Tuesday and maintaining a very strong and very wet and rather cold SE flow over the island all week. Looks like the potential for some heavy rain, especially on Wednesday. Somewhat reminiscent of the Manawatu flooding event of February, but still a bit too early to say where the heavy stuff will fall. Chances look high for Wellington, Wairapara, and maybe Hawkes Bay to get some serious rain. :(
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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, a low parked off the coast like that tends to be a rain making factory.
With the very cold air early in the week, some good snow falls are likely on the southern North Island hills/ranges.
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Andy
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Unread post by Andy »

Once again the North Island will be in the firing line... This seems to be an on going factor in the weather patterns at the moment. :shock:

Can anybody with some more knowledge give us some insight in to why this might be happening? ;)

Is it do wil sea temps, the postion of the highs at this time of year..?
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

The highs are much furthur north unfortunately than normal even Vanautu must be getting west winds at times :P
Andy wrote:Once again the North Island will be in the firing line... This seems to be an on going factor in the weather patterns at the moment. :shock:

Can anybody with some more knowledge give us some insight in to why this might be happening? ;)

Is it do wil sea temps, the postion of the highs at this time of year..?
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tich
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Unread post by tich »

This morning's Press suggested the southerly storm predicted for Wednesday could rival the October 2000 storm. However, I can't imagine it getting nearly that bad. Sure we could get southerly gales on the Canterbury coast from Banks Peninsula northwards and heavy rain in North Canterbury, but something like October 2000? That storm involved hurricane force winds and over 100mm rain (up to 200mm in places?) on the peninsula, caused by a deep low to the east of Cantebury. In a different league altogether.

But this coming storm looks like being worse further north, namely between Kaikoura and Hawkes Bay. Plus, even though in these situations the freezing and snow levels should rise, the warm advection and increase in precipitation could slow down this rise, hereby prolonging heavy snow to quite low levels in the central and lower North Island. :twisted:
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Yes also the SW is at galeforce tonight too and cold :x
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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Re: Possible heavy rain for NI mid week

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

TonyT wrote:The latest model runs have a nasty depression deepening rapidly east of the North Island on Tuesday and maintaining a very strong and very wet and rather cold SE flow over the island all week. Looks like the potential for some heavy rain, especially on Wednesday. Somewhat reminiscent of the Manawatu flooding event of February, but still a bit too early to say where the heavy stuff will fall. Chances look high for Wellington, Wairapara, and maybe Hawkes Bay to get some serious rain. :(
One up to Blues Skies for this, I reckon :)

JohnGaul
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