Been looking at some models (GFS and GASP - is the latter really an abbreviation for something?), and (shock horror) their prognoses for next week look rather similar to this week Not nearly as extreme as this week, but still involving a strong, cold, cyclonic southerly with a deep low to the east of NZ. Areas trying to recover from this week's blast don't need another southerly storm, even if it's less severe.
But ECMWF are just going for a short cold southerly, and MetService seem to be taking that line in today's weather weather outlook.
I tend to go along with ECMWF on this one, with cold anticyclonic conditions from the middle of next week.
Could? be thunder here with the SW before hand
MetService nows predicts a more significant cold outbreak with snow to low levels predicted for the south and east of the South Island on both Monday and Tuesday. Still looks to be a weaker system than this week's. (but thankfully you wouldn't expect such an extreme storm to repeat itself in just 1 week)
tich wrote:MetService nows predicts a more significant cold outbreak with snow to low levels predicted for the south and east of the South Island on both Monday and Tuesday. Still looks to be a weaker system than this week's. (but thankfully you wouldn't expect such an extreme storm to repeat itself in just 1 week)
looks to hit CHCH over sunday night with possiblity of snow flurrys. I would think very light
Barometer has risen this evening in Chch - a change has occured, but clouds are only beginning to appear and the wind (southerly?) is starting to freshen.
Tomorrow will certainly be alot colder than today's mild northwesterly conditions. The BP and (probably) Port Hills should have extra snow tomorrow, but I'm not sure about the city (hail and sleet more likely). I say extra, as there's still quite a bit on Mt Herbert, and a few patches still linger on the higher (western) Port Hills. I was over in Lyttleton today, and was intending to climb Herbert, but the lambing seems to have started early (not very good weather at times for lambs this mornth) and the track was already closed.
I've just looked at the 9PM radar, and it shows a bright band clipping the mid Canterbury (Ashburton River mouth I guess) coast. I'm not sure about Chch, but Banks Peninsula should be in the firing line.
Light overnight dusting of snow above about 300 metres on the Port Hills. Obviously came with the band of precipitation in the early hours. Fine now - shower cloud visible only to the southeast. With the flow seeming to be south/southwest, it shouldn't be heading this way.
Yes Ben, on the plains though there is Cu that has gone to Cb, glaciating quickly and they don't last long. Offshore shows good Cu development aswell, and some stuff to the south aswell. I guess it's falling as small hail? Not thunderous activity of course! Maybe Auckland might get something later on tonight?
Some nice crisp Cu over B'sP at the moment, a Cb passed just before looking quite nice, only small in size. It just doesn't want to move over Chch, the clouds hit B'sP and goe ENE. Wouldn't mind a little hail shower.
a Cb passed just before looking quite nice, only small in size.
Cold change over NZ is low level only, hence cb's will be low topped and a bit weak. When clouds are this weak they tend to be coastal only.
Freezing level looks very low in the south today.
Light overnight dusting of snow above about 300 metres on the Port Hills.
There could've even been light snow to near sea-level overnight - a Chch poster on the weather section of a ski forum said he had a light dusting on his lawn early this morning, gone by 10AM. He probably lives up in the hill suburbs, but I'd say there would've at least been sleet in the city last night. I've also been told that there was a light dusting to near sea-level around Akaroa as well early this morning. Looking at LeBons Bay (about 100-150m asl) obs and the radar shots through the day, I'd say snow showers have continued to low levels on the outer parts of the peninsula through the day.
Another heavy fall right now
This looks like being one of the snowiest Augusts in recent memory for the lower South Island, what with 2 major sea-level dumps in Dunedin, plus earlier falls in Invercargill.
This southerly outbreak seems to be as cold as last week's one. What with Dunedin being blanketed to sea-level again, snow now falling on the Rimutaka Hill Road (I wouldn't be surprised if Wellington's hill suburbs even got some tonight), and Chch - well there's cloud about and the temperature's only about 1-2C, so any more showers tonight are unlikely to be liquid.
The difference between the current icy blast and last week's storm though, is that the current one is a straight cold advection southerly, not complicated by a deepening low to the east, hence the snowfalls aren't as heavy, except perhaps in places like Dunedin, which are very exposed to such airstreams.
Light snowflakes wafting through central Chch earlier this morning, but this has since ceased. Sun has come out (less cloud to the east), but dark cloud to the south and southwest, so it's not over yet. Not surprising even though the forecast was only for snow above 300 metres, as it was just above freezing and cloudy when I woke up. Seems to be alot more snow falling on outer Banks Peninsula, probably to sea-level as well.
We had snow at Southshore this morning and it was falling quite well, infact it was the same intensity (if not more) as that last dump Canterbury had the weekend before last. I'm now at work and it's snowing outside, so maybe it's still falling at Southshore?
2 minutes later, oh well it's stopped now, it might start up again. Ah there it goes! (only lite).
We also had some hail last night falling around the 6mm size but it wasn't heavy in intensity as the bases of these clouds never seemed to go directly over me. I saw a hail shower move over Chch from my roof last night, the city lit up the big hail swath as it was going over.
Here's some pics which show the snow falling as at Southsore this morning:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Not nearly as extreme as this week, but still involving a strong, cold, cyclonic southerly with a deep low to the east of NZ. Areas trying to recover from this week's blast don't need another southerly storm, even if it's less severe.
