Deepening Tasman Low - Apr 26-28

[David]

I see the GFS is showing heavy rain over all of Northland and Auckland Wednesday evening as well as the rain on Tuesday...some things to watch in the models at least instead of seeing anticyclones all the time!

[Tornado Tim]

I see the GFS is showing heavy rain over all of Northland and Auckland Wednesday evening as well as the rain on Tuesday...some things to watch in the models at least instead of seeing anticyclones all the time!

Yes I am getting quite Sick of the blocking highs!

[NZstorm]

I see the GFS is showing heavy rain over all of Northland and Auckland Wednesday evening as well as the rain on Tuesday.

Looks like Tuesday front stalls over northern NZ and is still over us on Wednesday. GFS is also plotting instability with this front so embedded thunderstorms are on the cards. 4-5 days out!

[NZstorm]

Looking like a solid rain event is on the way. 12Z GFS is forecasting 70mm for Auckland early to mid week. I wouldn't believe that number but its an indication that it will be wet!

[spwill]

Some very moist air over northern NZ next week, hopefully some reasonable rain/showers . Some warm nights also with the high dewpoint temperatures.

[Michael]

Iits been warm almost all nights with the exception of about 2 or 3,no blankets required yet

[NZstorm]

Looks like a set up for some big cb's!

[David]

Looking like a solid rain event is on the way. 12Z GFS is forecasting 70mm for Auckland early to mid week. I wouldn't believe that number but its an indication that it will be wet!

I looked what the NOAA air resources laboratory GFS had to say for here - 93mm rain....just like you I am not believing that figure, even half that amount would be awesome

[Tornado Tim]

It does seem we are going to have a rain even come Tuesday/Tuesday night, even though those rain figures look a bit exaggerated, they do point to the rain
Even a chance of thunder too

Can a mod split this thread.......

[Nev]

Can a mod split this thread.......

Done!

[David]

Not looking as wet with the last few model runs

[tgsnoopy]

Not looking as wet with the last few model runs

Yeah, still a little far out for me to get excited over. Been too disappointed lately. I won't be in a position to chase it anyway.

[Tornado Tim]

Another possible Rain Belt in the forecast for Thursday

[Michael]

There seems to be a secondary system,often happens in NE's an initial low,fills in then a general W flow behind with ridging to the east continuing.

[Richard]

Latest images from BOM are looking very ominous with the jetstream to the north of the system coming off NSW,hope for some spillover which we can get here at times

[David]

Looking good for tomorrow:

tstorm_outlook_270410.png

Valid to: 12:00am Wednesday 28 April 2010
Issued at: 10:45am Monday 26 April 2010


The front just west of the South Island at midday is forecast to move eastwards across the South Island and Taranaki in the afternoon, then over other western and northern parts of the North Island in the evening. Behind this front, a deepening low approaches southern Fiordland in the evening with an associated trough moving onto the South Island.

There is a continued risk of thunderstorms embedded in the rainband ahead of the front for the west of the South Island and Taranaki in the afternoon, then for the upper half of the North Island from late afternoon or evening. In general,the risk of storms is moderate, but a higher risk is anticipated for Northland,Auckland and Coromandel late afternoon or evening. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with rates reaching 25mm/hr along with strong wind gusts,especially about Taranaki and the west of the South Island where gusts of 100km/hr are possible.

Finally, there is a continued risk of thunderstorms behind the front in South Westland and Fiordland as the trough moves onshore there late afternoon or early evening. While the risk of storms is less than with the front, further localised heavy rain and gusty winds are possible into the evening.

No thunderstorms are expected in eastern and southern parts of the country.
http://metservice.com/national/warning ... rm-outlook

[Michael]

the BOM has a funny looking high following this high,probably some rain but not 93mm or even 40mm in Auckland now.

[Storm Struck]

This low level southerly today came as a surprise to me, sneaky bugger as its N-NW over top.
Low cloud has now taken over the Plains because of this, which brings me to a question with a cold southerly meeting a moist NW flow through the alps would this help to bring heavy snow high up.
Looks like another one of those interesting curves on the front crossing the North Island tomorrow, but are the ingrediants situated good enough for tornado development around New Plymouth/Taranaki area always a hard one to pick with punchy fronts like tomorrows.

[Richard]

That wind change Jase made it as far as here by 4.00,cant see a lot of rain happening on this side over the next few days as any weather that come from due north never produces much precipitation.

[Manukau heads obs]

the front to the west of the NI looks to have intensified overnight
hopefully it does not weaken too much before landfall!!

[Vertigo]

yes, looks to be some continuous development on the front just NW of northland, should be a good rain producer!

[DT-NZ]

Greys skies this morning DB region - windy and blustery, currently 20.7 - had a light drizzle come through approx 30-40mins ago.

[David]

Overnight low of 18.4°C here, must be pretty unusual for the time of year...
Looking forward to some rain later

[tgsnoopy]

yes, looks to be some continuous development on the front just NW of northland, should be a good rain producer!

Good, they need the rain up there. Fingers crossed.

[DT-NZ]

yes, looks to be some continuous development on the front just NW of northland, should be a good rain producer!

Morning Vertigo,

Looking North @ 08.27hrs

edit reason(s): correcting time from 09.27 to 08.27hrs, forgot to set camera's clock back. you know it would be great if other ppl from these parts posted reports too!!!