General May Weather

[Lukemyster]

Ahhh those cool crisp days where you look out and expect it to be like 25 degrees and then you walk out and freeze. Hardly any rain on the cards by the looks of things for May.

Check out the Queenstown timelapse webcam with the amazing autumn colours on this fine crisp day.
http://www.takeabreak.co.nz/accommodati ... nstown.asp

[Richard]

Cool crisp days alright,got to 17C early afternoon but when the sun starts to go down,boy its feeling more like winter.

[Tim S]

Awesome day here in nelson too, looks like tomorrow will be just as good. Looks as though the metservice models have backed off considerably on the rain for Friday and Saturday for this region.

Does anyone know if Metservice base their 3 and 7 day rainfall prediction charts on GFS, use a combination of several models, or do they use their own models?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

dunno.
Might pay to ask someone who works there

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Nev]

I believe MetService use initial data from UM, GFS and ECMWF and runs it through the MM5 and WRF models, which takes into account local geography more than global models are capable of. NIWA on the other hand, with their huge investment in a supercomputer, have developed their own model known as NZLAM (New Zealand Limited Area Model), which is primarily based on the UM model.

[Tornado Tim]

NIWA on the other hand, with their huge investment in a supercomputer, have developed their own model known as NZLAM (New Zealand Limited Area Model), which is primarily based on the UM model.

I hope it is free to access, If any1 finds a link to it can you please post it

[Nev]

I hope it is free to access, If any1 finds a link to it can you please post it

Don't think so, but you can try this link.

[David]

Low of 5.6°C here. Not unusual for May, but the coldest this year to date

[Manukau heads obs]

sure was a reminder this morning that winter is only a few weeks away!
nice day to follow though for sunshine

might be some NE rain on sunday...but then the tasman low might get held out...but then we might get a cut off low with afternoon thunderstorms in an easterly...will be interesting to say how this weekend will pan out up this way

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Strong Northeast all day here in Christchurch. Some dodgy looking cloud hanging around the hills first thing this morning apart from that plenty of sun but cold day. Just looking at the official rainfall for the year to date in Christchurch, only 98.2mm. Average rainfall at this stage 200mm.

[David]

Terrible anticyclonic gloom this morning!

[Manukau heads obs]

I can see that from here...we have blue skies still...but that cloud bank is getting closer

latest model runs have the potential for lots of rain next week if the low hangs around a new moist NE airstream becomes established over the NI...

[spwill]

Perhaps our first decent spell of rain/showers in 6 months

[Michael]

Sure feels quite cold today,though little wind maybe its the cloud cover,one thing guaranteed is murphys law,ie our neighbours tree are due east and its may when we get probably the largest % easterlies and to the NE is the large genko tree and it always is NE the last week of May when they blow down,and are un-sweepable because of their flat shape.

[DT-NZ]

Diffinately had a wintery feel in the air this morning - an Autumn snap taken yesterday from Kaeo - more to follow.

[David]

The gloom has remained all day....a high of 16.4°C here as a result, coolest this year, felt quite cool too

[Tornado Tim]

The gloom has remained all day....a high of 16.4°C here as a result, coolest this year, felt quite cool too

That gloom is coming to Hamilton now, damb it!, LOL

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Beautiful day here not a cloud in the sky and very little wind. High just under 20 degrees.

[Tim S]

I know everyone says the Nelson region is among the sunniest in the country but I am still amazed at how much sunshine we've been having lately. Since we arrived here on Sunday arvo there's been no more than around 3-4 hours during daylight hours where its been clouded over! Saying this though it looks as though we'll be in for a few cloudy days ahead but still so far the only difference between the weather I'm used to in Perth and here is the temp, which consequently has been quite bearable, chilly overnight but warm enough during the day.

Thanks Nev on the info about which models the metservice use, I thought they would have their own model but by the sounds of it NIWA are the own company with access to the right equipment to run its own model. Metservice is a privately run company isn't it? though is NIWA as well? I imagine they both get some funding from the government though.

[spwill]

Cloud cover moved in early trapping cold air, made for a rather cold day, mostly around 16C.
I see the average May max temp for Auckland is 17.4C, Hamilton 16.6C, Wellington 14.2C, Nelson 15.2C, Christchurch 14.2C and Dunedin 12.6C.

[Lukemyster]

Yeah sure was another stunner here in Christchurch a warm calm 20C

It says that the mean maximum is 16C where did you get 14.2 for Christchurch

[RWood]

Mean May max (71-00) for Ch'ch Aero is 14.3, Gardens 14.6. Without seeing more detail, the 14.2/14.3 difference is unimportant, depends how and when rounding was done. Source is NIWA, available on CliFlo.

[RWood]

I know everyone says the Nelson region is among the sunniest in the country but I am still amazed at how much sunshine we've been having lately. Since we arrived here on Sunday arvo there's been no more than around 3-4 hours during daylight hours where its been clouded over! Saying this though it looks as though we'll be in for a few cloudy days ahead but still so far the only difference between the weather I'm used to in Perth and here is the temp, which consequently has been quite bearable, chilly overnight but warm enough during the day.

Thanks Nev on the info about which models the metservice use, I thought they would have their own model but by the sounds of it NIWA are the own company with access to the right equipment to run its own model. Metservice is a privately run company isn't it? though is NIWA as well? I imagine they both get some funding from the government though.

A rather short sample time though. Longterm average at the Aero site for May is about 168 hours' sun, about 59% of the recordable.

[Manukau heads obs]

this low moving down from the north, might bring rain from the east into canterbury by wedensday?

[Andy]

Very mild morning 17.5 degrees.