Deep Subtropical Low 12-18th May!!!

[Storm Struck]

I thought someone better start a new thread as this will be our first significant low system for the year coming.
It looks like this system could stick around for a wee while bringing much needed rain to those areas that need it, and strong to gale force winds.
Unstable skies for the west of both islands later in the week no doubt as Tim pointed out earlier today also.
Perhaps a few spots of rain here Wednesday night with strong northerlies overnight, but more or so Friday for our better chance at rain and again Sunday/Monday.
It may well be a hard low to pick with its slow movement, here's a link to a GFS model from WZ.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

[spwill]

The start to the end of a weather pattern that has given some parts of NewZealand 6 months dry weather.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes true. I noticed there was a similar low to the north of the Chathams last week which was persistent.
I thought that if this low was going to be the same as that one, it could be quite usefull for rain, especially in parts that needed it, rather than in previous systems,most of the rain has been falling in SW regions of the South Island where they don't really need it.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Dean.]

Im hoping the low or lows flick up a nice cold southerly airstream once they are to the south of NZ.
Freezing levels look high until at least Monday with the 540 thickness line well to the south of the country.
Need my snow fix,been a long 6 years!

[melja]

Dont think its going to give much in the way of weather to the east of the south island just more rain to the coast i would say.

[Storm Struck]

It wont be a great producer in the way of rain for the east coast no, but certainly a welcome amount in the coming 6-7 days.
The Northerly overnight tomorrow is the one to watch, i am thinking northern most parts of Canterbury and Marlborough could see some severe gusts especailly in open valleys.
More or so the rain is more favourable for us when the low flicks to the east of the country, with a cooler SE flow developing.

[Vertigo]

Im dubious about its being a rain producer. Looks too tight, too small, and too far west.. Heres hoping the NE flow is strong.

[Dean.]

Will be interesting to see things change when the low interacts with the front crossing the Tasman.May deepen and strengthen as it moves south?

[Michael]

The models have it as moving south as its identity and gradually filling over the latter part of this period.

[Manukau heads obs]

looking better for rain now up this way...especially the front in behind, attached to the low...as the new trough coming into the tasman triggers upper cooling I would say...shame its moving so fast....

[Vertigo]

It was a good looking low until it got massively sheared by the NE flow, now its just a mess visually. But its still strong.

[Manukau heads obs]

you gota wonder if the lower rainfall over the upper NI over the last 10 years during the autumn is anyway associated with global warming, i.e that we are missing cold air to condense out the moisture in the atmosphere
(i.e lots of high pressure instead)
(but does mean that when we do get that injection of cold air, a warmer air mass will have more moisture and so could instead lead to more intense rain when the conditions right)
a bit OT sorry and just me rambling

PS
I see marine forecast is for NE gusting to 50 knots this afternoon
cool
and with a 3m swell on the west coast, will make for spectacular blown off waves...will get some photos...

[Nev]

Thought it might be an idea to change the title of this thread, as our low is hardly stationary anymore as it begins to accelerate south.

Yes, mean-winds have picked up considerably overnight and are currently around 100km/h at Cape Reinga. At 6am mean-winds were 80km/h at the Bay of Islands and 74km/h at Tutukaka and Tiritiri. They're also turning more NE, so Auckland won't be so sheltered by the Coromandel anymore.

[Richard]

It wont be a great producer in the way of rain for the east coast no, but certainly a welcome amount in the coming 6-7 days.
The Northerly overnight tomorrow is the one to watch, i am thinking northern most parts of Canterbury and Marlborough could see some severe gusts especailly in open valleys.
More or so the rain is more favourable for us when the low flicks to the east of the country, with a cooler SE flow developing.

When ever there's a strong Northerly over the South Island to tends to effect the coast mainly as a N Easterly ,i can never recall a Northerly gale where i am.
Any welcome amounts of rain look to be this weekend.

[Manukau heads obs]

i am thinking that as the low tracks south the front will become slower moving and lying more NNE/SSW over the auckland area....good rain maker?

[Tornado Tim]

The front looks like it is just north of of Auckland, and it looking vary dark that way too!

[DT-NZ]

The front looks like it is just north of of Auckland, and it looking vary dark that way too!

Yes, that dark is here now - power is surging as I sit here typing this (wind related) so will quickly get - sorry brb...

[Manukau heads obs]

good area of heavy rain about to move down onto the auckland area, horray!

offshore windswept swell here on the west coast

[Nev]

Nice burst of heavy rain here since 11:50am - nearly 5mm so far plus 1.4mm overnight and very gusty.

[DT-NZ]

Back, internet has been slow this morning, what I have observed most this morning from the low have been the strong winds - rainfall in gauge today from 10.30am to 12.30pm only 2mm.

[DT-NZ]

offshore windswept swell here on the west coast

[DT-NZ]

A few pics taken approx between 13:00 - 13:30hrs - produced another 1mm of rain in guage, currently 21.2 C out - sun is shinning, skies are clearing with long whispy clouds - warm.

[Tornado Tim]

That 2nd to last pic it seems you captured a funnel cloud!!!
Congrats!

Just being swept by a bit of wind driven rain hitting the windows over here.

[spwill]

Showery rain for Auckland, gusty humid Easterlies. 19C, dewpoint 18C. Only a few mm here but good to see rain coming down, I see Mangawhai Heads north of Auckland has had 25mm.

[tich]

A few pics taken approx between 13:00 - 13:30hrs - produced another 1mm of rain in guage, currently 21.2 C out - sun is shinning, skies are clearing with long whispy clouds - warm.

Presumably bigger than normal surf for that beach, and other northeastern NI beaches as well - saw TV news clip within last few days (relating to Barbara Kendall and windsurfing) showing Orewa Beach looking more like a west coast beach.