cold europe winter coming?????

[Manukau heads obs]

http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/col ... sures.html

what happenbed to global warming, or is this because of global warming, and is like the movie, the day after tomorrow?

[RWood]

There have been a lot of beat-up stories about the Gulf Stream of late, all roundly rubbished from what I can see.

[Simon Culling]

Hey Rupert, its not often we agree (certainly on another forum!!), but I think you are correct here. There is some evidence to suggest a fall in the strength of the Gulf Stream over the last 30 years or so, but it is still going strong and is showing no signs of failing.

With regard to the forthcoming winter in Europe, normally in the developing stage of a La Nina we might expect a strong jet stream across the Atlantic and a very cyclonic pattern to emerge, resulting in a mild and wet winter. But, the meridional pattern that establsihed itself last autumn (ie a year ago) has persisted with a preference to northern blocking and a weak southerly jet. Couple this with a still slightly negative NAO and one might expect a colder than average winter, so there is still a lot of doubt. However, it would be unusual to get 3 cold winters in a row.

[Michael]

You have a 953hpa low presently close to you,to the west is it rather bad?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I thought it was was rather cold there, last winter??
JohnGaul
NZThS

[RWood]

Thanks for the info. Simon.

[Simon Culling]

Michael, I think you are referring to the low that is forecast to develop later this week? Currently (at 0600GMT) this morning, we have a low (964mb) just south of Iceland and a big high (1039mb) centered near Moscow, with a frontal system having passed through the UK overnight leaving a breezy W-SW flow over the country.

The forecast charts see a low developing mid-Atlantic (near 40*N) and curving NE to dominate the mid-Atlantic. The forecast chart for 1200GMT friday (8th Oct) shows a deep low (955-960mb) approx 800-1000 miles to the W of the UK and the big high (still around 1040mb) having moved NE to near the Baltic Sea. This will introduce a SE flow over the UK from thursday onwards and last through the weekend, with warm sunny weather predicted for much of the UK, with temperatures in the south up to a lovely 22-23*C, which is rather warm for October. The low is likely to only affect the far W+N later (ie Scotland and N Ireland) in the weekend. The SE flow will become a little more E during the weekend (as the high moves NE into Scandinavia) and the wind will became fresh at times....but still nice weather for mid-autumn.

[Simon Culling]

John, last winter was indeed rather cold over the UK, and especially so over Scotland.

Taking England + Wales as an example, the Central England Temperature for the winter months (December, January and February) was 1.6*C, which is 2.1*C below the 1971-2000 average, making it the coldest winter since 1978/1979. Rainfall was about average, with less than normal in the West, but more in the East.....as you might expect with a lack of the normal SW winds. Sunshine was above average over the UK as a whole.

[Manukau heads obs]

currently though the gulf stream and the water around Greenland and europe is warmer than normal, and has been for months now...thoughts on that?

[Simon Culling]

Hello Brian. The large (>2*C) SST anomoly around Greenland may well be a result of the re-curving NW then NE of a number of hurricane's this summer, taking them up the E coast of America/Canada and into the Greenland area with their attendent warmth and moisture. As a sweeping generalisation, warm water in this area in the approach to winter may favour high presssure development which would only strengthen the northern blocking pattern we have seen for the last year or so. However, another school of thought would suggest a stronger polar front because of this tempersture gradient (see current maps that show quite a steep gradient going south from Greenland to cooler than average SST's) and deeper depressions forming and moving E across the Atlantic, but with the jet stream somewhat further south than normal. This would put the UK on the boundary of the warm and cold air, so might indicate a rather unsettled but cool winter. This might mean some big but short lasting snowfalls. We shall see in a couple of months time!

[Simon Culling]

Global SST's are falling in response to the developing La Nina, ie see map below. The blue line is the global average.

[Michael]

this was the low i was referiing to,it must be an upper feature shown here(am looking at).its quite old too now but noticed it.

Michael, I think you are referring to the low that is forecast to develop later this week? Currently (at 0600GMT) this morning, we have a low (964mb) just south of Iceland and a big high (1039mb) centered near Moscow, with a frontal system having passed through the UK overnight leaving a breezy W-SW flow over the country.

web_intl_europe_winds_day1_600.jpg

[Simon Culling]

This was a surface feature Michael, but it was a little too far NW to have any dramatic effects on the UK. It was windy in N + NW Scotland (up to 50-60mph) early in the day, but a smaller secondary low ran NE over England and Wales overnight and thru sunday morning, giving 34mm at RAF Shawbury (Shropshire) and at Cardinham on Bodmin Moor (Cornwall)....of Hound of the Baskerville's fame, and 31mm at St James Park in central London. The secondary low was also rather windy on its southern flank with coastal gusts to 67mph at Berry Head (Devon) and 63mph at Channel Lighthouse Vessel in the SW approaches. It was also warm in the SE of England with a max temp of 19.9*C at RAF Manston on the Kent coast.

[davide]

forecasts for next winter:

november, december, january:



february, march, april:

[Michael]

1988-89 was a cold european winter and la nina.

[Simon Culling]

Michael, winter 1988-89 was very mild over much of Europe away from the far SE, ie the Balkans and the south Med and east into the Middle East and the Caucuses. I will dig out some figures, as memory suggests it was particularly mild in the UK.

[davide]

from the website of the american weather man Joe Bastardi:

[Simon Culling]

There is growing consensus from all 4 global models for northern blocking to return to NW Europe in about a weeks time, with a strong anticyclone developing over Scandinavia, bringing cold E winds to much of central + NW Europe, including the UK. The ensembles suggest quite a long period of cold weather, with even the Met Office suggest wintry showers in the east of the UK by the end of November in their monthly outlook. History suggests a cold start to winter doesnt usually mean a cold winter overall, but that is only a statistic......no real guide to the future.

My take is that if the meridional pattern persists, as it has done for over a year now, with a predominantly negative NAO, then this cold spell is highly likely and will last well into December before the Atlantic wakes up by Christmas to give us a wet and windy spell, before a very cold end to the winter, with February bringing the worst of the cold + snow. Time will tell.

[davide]

i just have to wait a little bit







with these...snow in milan in few days...

[Simon Culling]

Buona Sera, Davide.....come sta?

The charts you have posted are just one of many of the model solutions for the next 2 weeks, but they are all definitely saying something cold is coming for Europe. Obviously the exact position of the high will make a big difference as to where the worst of the cold goes, and current model output is favouring a swath across central Europe. We shall see.

Currently cold and frosty here in Milton Keynes with a temperature of 0*C at 8pm and a beautiful clear bright moon in the sky. Freezing fog for tomorrow morning....Ciao

[davide]

Buona Sera, Davide.....come sta?

The charts you have posted are just one of many of the model solutions for the next 2 weeks, but they are all definitely saying something cold is coming for Europe. Obviously the exact position of the high will make a big difference as to where the worst of the cold goes, and current model output is favouring a swath across central Europe. We shall see.

Currently cold and frosty here in Milton Keynes with a temperature of 0*C at 8pm and a beautiful clear bright moon in the sky. Freezing fog for tomorrow morning....Ciao

ciao simon! i'm fine thanks and you?

yes i know they are just one of many of the model solutions for the next 2 weeks but they are incredible for novembre i agree, cold future for europe!

you're already below zero..here we have to wait only few days...but already in october i reached temperatures till +1°

[Simon Culling]

Yes Davide, we have had a few slight frosts so far this autumn....I have had to scrape the frost and rime off the car 3 times this week (monday, tuesday + friday). It has also been very foggy, with fog most days this week.

However, the cold spell looks nailed on now, with the first whiff of a NE wind starting tomorrow, Sunday 21st. According to the Met Office monthly outlook it will remain cold and frosty until mid december at least, with the chance of snow as disturbances track SW from Scandinavia. The relatively warm waters of the North Sea will produce instability sleet/snow showers from mid-week (Weds 24th) onwards down the East coastof England.

After 2 cold winters in a row, we could really do without another as Government cutbacks in spending start to bite next year. The novelty of snow wears off after a while when its been on the ground for weeks at a time as it did last winter. It makes getting about a lot more difficult, because with the lack of money, only the main roads get cleared of snow.