UK Weather - Autumn 2010

[Simon Culling]

A rather non-descript month so far in September, with the CET approx 0.5*C above average and the E+W rainfall also a little above average. It has turned colder in the last couple of days with fresh northerly winds and daytime maximum temperatures here in MK of just 13*C today (saturday 25th) and friday. It was a cold this morning with a low of just 4*C, but just 0.3*C at Sennybridge in the Welsh valleys and 1.3*C at Benson (Oxfordshire), with a touch of ground frost in places. It will be colder tonight, especially in the west of the UK as the wind dies down.

Further west and north there was a nip of frost in N Ireland, N England + Scotland this morning, with the lowest temperature recorded of -1.4*C at Katesbridge (N Ireland) and also -0.2*C at Woodford Apt (Gt Mannchester).

[Simon Culling]

It was indeed cold on saturday + sunday night, particularly in Scotland, with probably the lowest temperature recorded in September in the UK since the -5.5*C recorded at St Harmon in Powys, Wales on 19th September 1985.

On saturday night (25/26th) -4.4*C was recorded at Tyndrum and -4.2*C at Tulloch Bridge
On sunday night (26/27th) -4.4*C was recorded at Kinbrace and -3.8*C at Tulloch Bridge

These 3 sites are all in Scotland, where the first snow's of winter fell on the tops of the Cairngorm Mountains (above about 3000ft) where the ski industry is rubbing its hands in anticipation of a good winter season. With the developing La Nina, history may suggest caution.

The lowest temperatures recorded in September in the UK are -6.7*C at Dalwhinnie (Highland Scotland) on 20-9-1942, -6.2*C at Lagganlia (Highland Scotland) on 27-9-1975 and -5.6*C at Santon Downham (Norfolk, England) on 30-9-1969.

[Simon Culling]

After a wet start to October (England + Wales have already had 60% of the months average rainfall) High pressure has taken over and introduced warm SE winds for a while over the last wekend, with plenty of sunshine away from the east coast and warm temperatures in the west and south. The temperature reached 23.1*C at both Chivenor (N Devon) + Valley (on Anglesey) on firiday 8th, and 20*C over most of England + Wales. The warmth transferred to the south coast of England over the weekend, with 22.9*C at St Helier (on Jersey) and 20.9*C at Southampton on saturday (9th) and 22.5*C at Southampton on sunday (10th), although the site at Southampton is rather sheltered in NE-SE winds, so might be a little high. Nearby Bournemouth Airport got to 20*C and 21*C respectively on these two days. I was on the south coast over the weekend and it was sunny and warm from friday thru sunday and a most pleasent end to the autumn....the leaves are just starting to turn from green to yellow/brown/orange.

A gradual cooling trend will continue through this week as the wind stays in the NE and the cloud spreading in from the North Sea wont burn off during the day in most places.

[Simon Culling]

With the high pressure (1028mb at 0900GMT this morning - monday 11th Oct) located just to the SE of Iceland much of England + Wales was in a E-NE flow with a moderate breeze blowing, but Scotland was near the flabby centre of the high and in light winds, and this morning there was a fantastic inversion evident, as the mountain tops were above the inversion (and fog) and in the very warm and dry subsided airmass above. At 0900GMT this morning, Aviemore (at 228m amsl in the valley) was a cold -1.6*C, but at 1245m on Cairngorm Summit the temperature was +11.6*C and with a dew point of -19.0*C, the humidity was only 10%. The mountain temperature didnt vary much during the day, but Aviemore was still in fog at 3.0*C at 1200GMT (noon), although when the fog cleared in the early afternoon the temperature shot up to 11.8*C by 1600GMT, matching the mountain top temperature.

[Simon Culling]

First general frost of the autumn last night (sat/sun 16/17th Oct) in western and northern parts of the UK. The SE quarter remained under a blanket of Sc (including here in Milton Keynes), so minimums here were in the range 1-4*C. Lows reported include:

-3.5*C Benson (Oxon)
-2.4*C Pershore (Worcs)
-2.3*C Redesdale (Northumberland)
-1.9*C Bournemouth Airport
-0.8*C South Farnborough (Hampshire)

Many places reported frost on the grass + cars. Forecast is for a cold northerly plunge of artic air for tuesday (19th) onwards with a couple of nights of widespread frost with some snow to low levels in Northern Scotland.

[Simon Culling]

A cold morning on thursday (21st Oct) this week with a widespread frost over the southern half of the UK as winds fell light after a couple of cold showery days with the winds from the NW. Minimums included:

-5.7*C at Chesham (Bucks) - a frost hollow to the NW of London
-4.9*C at Bournemouth Arport
-4.7*C at Benson (Oxon) and Charlewood (Surrey)
-3.9*C at Exeter Airport (Devon)
-3.2*C at Shoreham Airport (W Sussex) - on the South Coast

[Simon Culling]

With regard to October record minimum temperatures, the lowest accepted figures are -11.7*C at Dalwhinnie on 28th Oct 1948 and -11.4*C at Braemar on 20th Oct 1880. These are both in the Scottish Highlands and both rather old!!! In recent years the mercury fell to -9.9*C at Carnwarth (nr Lanark, in the Southern Uplands, also in Scotland) on 17th Oct 1993

In Wales, -8.5*C was recorded at St Harmon (Powys) on the 30th in 1988.

In England, the coldest October night in recent years was the night of 28th/29th 1997, when the temperature fell to -8.1*C at Great Gaddesden (Hertfordshire) + Redesdale (Northumberland) and to -7.5*C at Benson and -7.0*C at Birmingham Airport. This followed a day of very low humidities over most of Southern England with values widely below 25% on the afternoon of the 28th. These were the lowest October temperatures over this area since 1931.

Bournemouth (Hurn) Airport recorded a minimum of -6.4*C on 30th Oct 1983.

[Simon Culling]

Another cold morning yesterday (monday 25th Oct) especially in the west and north of the UK, with minimums of:

-6.6*C at Sennybridge (Powys, Wales)
-6.2*C at Katesbridge (N Ireland) - only 0.5*C short of the October record for N Ireland
-6.3*C at Carlton-in-Craven (S Yorkshire)
-5.3*C at Benson (Oxfordshire)
-4.7*C at Yeovilton

Has turned a lot milder today with SW winds expected for the rest of the week and beyond...its back to zonality for the foreseable future.

[Simon Culling]

Provisional CET for October was 10.3*C, which is 0.3*C below the 1961-1990 average, and the provisional England + Wales rainfall was 86mm, just 1mm below the same average period.

For the year the CET is running just 0.1*C below the 1961-1990 average, with 5 months above and 5 below, but it was the cold start to the year that has resulted in a slight negative anomoly.

[Manukau heads obs]

how is the prediction made that this was going to be the worlds hottest year on record shaping up so far?
edit, I have found this:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

[Simon Culling]

Brian, this link might help you answer that question, but it appears that despite the rapid onset of the current La Nina, 2010 will run 1998 close in the hottest year stakes.

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2 ... untsville/

The CET series has shown a notable cooling off since about 2005, but it still remains above the average, and of course, it is only indicative of this small area of the planet. I have included a link to the Met Office graph as they are a bit fussy about the copyright thing....despite the fact that us taxpayers pay for the data and its manipulation!!!

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/

Yours is a nice website, by the way Brian....very informative + colourful.

[Simon Culling]

A very mild start to November with the CET running +4*C above average up to the 5th, although it will be turning a lot colder over this weekend.

Max temps in the south of England reached 19.0*C at St James Park (London) yesterday (thurs 4th) and 18.6*C at Gravesend (Kent) and 18.5*C at both Exeter Apt + London Heathrow. The previous night (3rd/4th) had also been very mild with a minimum of 15.4*C at St James Park and 15.2*C at RAF Northolt.

It was also very wet in N Wales and NW England on the 3rd/4th with another of those SW conveyor belts of heavy orographic rain, with 160mm+ at Seathwaite in Cumbria in approx 24hrs. Thankfully no serious flooding.

As I said, it is now turning much colder (rain @ 9*C now at 7pm) and a very deep low will sink south (an unusual trajectory) from the Iceland area on Sun/Mon (7/8th) to be over Eire at a projected 960mb by midday on Monday. Luckily, it is expected to be quite large in area, so the wind strength wont be anything too bad.

[Simon Culling]

The low pressure did exactly as forecast and moved SSE across Eire during Monday (8th Nov) with a central pressure of 960mb. It did bring plenty of rain, but being rather large, the pressure gradients were not too tight and the strongest winds were up the Irish Sea and into the Welsh, NW England and SW Scotland coasts, with gusts in the 60-70mph range.

An even deeper low (circa 955mb) is expected to move east across S Scotland tomorrow (thurs 11th) with a tighter gradient on its SW flank with mean speeds of 50mph+ predicted for S Scotland + N England with gusts to 80mph expected in exposed areas. This system is also going to bring 15-25mm of rain to much of the UK with a possible line convection element over Southern England tomorrow afternoon. The synoptic set-up is not too dissimilar to that which produced the London tornado in Dec 2006.

[Simon Culling]

The low duly passed East across the centre/north of Scotland at approx 952/953mb (it had been as low as 948mb just to the W of the Western Isles) during thursday (11th Nov) giving strong winds across the UK, but especially Eire, Wales and NW England. The highest recorded gusts were 91mph at Capel Curig and 81mph at Aberdaron, both in N Wales. 81mph was also recored at Finner Camp in the NW of Eire. The mean speeds were also quite high, for example Blackpool Airport reported a mean speed of 43kts (49mph) in its 1900Z METAR and had gusted to 62kts (71mph) at 1800Z.

Sadly, one person died in the gales

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-11742109

[Manukau heads obs]

big swells resulted!
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/new-i ... eak_49772/

[Simon Culling]

Cold weather arrived in the UK in the last week, with some particularly cold weather for so early in the winter. The first snow arrived overnight tues/weds (23rd/24th Nov) and since then a lot of snow has fallen in north and east Scotland and in the NE of England and not just over the hills....some low lying areas have reported up to 20cm of snow, with 40cm+ on the higher ground. Snow has also settled in many other eastern counties of England and also in the normally milder SW of England, with 20cms reported from Bodmin Moor.

Daytime temperatures have been low, with the first 'ice days' being reported on low ground (ie not mountains) in Scotland yesterday (26th), with -0.6*C at Carterhouse (308m amsl) and -0.1*C at Loch Glascarnoch (265m). In the NE of England, the max on friday (26th) was just +0.1*C at Boulmer at 23m amsl and on the North Sea coast, with a max of -0.2*C at Warcop Range (227m amsl) further inland.

Last night was clear in the west of the UK, with o/night minimums of -10.2*C at Sennybridge + Trawsgoed, both in Wales, and -7.3*C at Woodford (Gt Manchester).

See the BBC link below

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11852488

Here in Milton Keynes it has been mostly dry and cold, with max temperatures on thursday and friday only reaching 2*C and just 1*C today (saturday), after a low this morning of -4*C. A few light snow showers passed over the town around 5am, giving a light dusting of snow on top of the hoar frost, but literally one snowflake thick. It hasnt all melted today, and ice has been reforming since 3pm. Its going to be cold tonight.

The cold weather is forecast to last all nexk week with the prospect of some proper snow here as well.

[Richard]

wow winter has arrived Simon,wrap up warm wont you.

[Simon Culling]

Saturday 27th was another cold day with the slack Northerly flow being maintained with lots more snow showers in Eastern Scotland and NE England, with thundersnow reported in Aberdeen.

Follwing the cold night many places only just scraped above freezing during the day, with 'ice days' at quite a few sites, the lowest maxes being in Scotland. The coldest I have seen was -2.3*C at Kinbrace (116m amsl) in the far NE of Scotland, but Aviemore (Scottish Highlands) and Albermarle (Northumberland) only reached -2.0*C. Even parts of the south were sub-zero all day, with a max of -0.4*C at Kenley Aerodrome on the outskirts of London and -0.6*C at Little Rissington (Gloucestershire).

[Simon Culling]

Sunday (28th Nov) was a very cold day following exceptionally low temperatures o/night for Wales, N Ireland, parts of W Scotland and the W side of England. A low (993mb) was centered over mid-France with a big high pressure system (1037mb) stretching from Greenland to Iceland giving a slack NNE flow over the UK and maintaining the snow shower feed into E Scotland and NE England, where most places have 10-20cm with 50cm+ over the hills.

Llysdinham in Powys, central Wales recorded a minimum of -18.0*C on sunday morning, smashing the previous Welsh november record of -11.7*C set on 9/11/1921 at Welshpool. Nearby Sennybridge fell to -15.6*C and Trawsgoed to -12.1*C. It wasnt much warmer in Scotland with minimums of -15.3*C at Loch Glascarnoch, -14.4*C at Altnaharra and -14.3*C at Braemar. The coldest spots in England were Topcliffe (Yorks) with -13.5*C and Shawbury (Shropshire) with -13.2*C. Quite a few other sites in the UK fell below -10*C.

Locally here in Milton Keynes, the minimum temperature at nearby stations ranged between -6*C and -9*C, with the coldest being Woburn (Bedfordshire) with a minimum of -8.9*C.

[Simon Culling]

Sunday day was again exceptionally cold over the UK with many places experiencing an 'ice day'. The lowest daytime maximum temperatures (at Met Office sites) were:

-4.5*C at Sennybridge (Powys, Wales)
-4.0*C at Cottesmore (Leicestershire)
-3.4*C at Dunkeswell Aerodrome (Devon)
-3.3*C at Pershore (Worcestershire) and Nettlecome (Somerset)
-2.6*C at Altnaharra (Sutherland, Scotland)
-2.1*C at Church Lawford (Warwickshire)

These are exceptionally low for November, and most areas (away from the snow in the NE) had sunshine at times, although there was quite a lot of cirrus high cloud over England + Wales which would have inhibited any radiation from the low sun.

Here in Milton Keynes it was a day of hazy sunshine through the cirrus and a max of just -1*C. Our local lake, Loughton Lake, has almost frozen over, unprecedented for November. I will download some photos when I get the chance.

[Manukau heads obs]

ying and yang...to balance out across the globe, our local primary school has started swimming lessons in November for the first time because its been so warm and sunny here lately!
you guys probably cant believe its warm and summery somewhere else and we find it just hard to think you guys are so cold now, LOL

[NZstorm]

From what I saw on Tv tonight the snow is a couple of foot deep in north England!

[Manukau heads obs]

so it seems that the predictions of a very cold winter for europe made a month ago or so are coming true
(was based on jet streams and positions of highs etc I think?)

[Simon Culling]

Monday was another cold day with maximum temperatures across most of the UK a degree or so either side of zero. The coldest places were in the Glens of the Scottish Highlands as the cold air often gets trapped by inversions at this time of the year when winds are light. For example, Altnaharra in the far north of Scotland (and just 81m amsl) fell to -16.1*C o/night sunday into monday, but only struggled up to -4.1*C in the afternoon, whilst Aviemore had min/max of -11.8*C/-3.9*C as a comparison. Altnaharra did lift to -2*C in the evening as the inversion was broken and snow showers moved across the area.

Here in Milton Keynes it was a cold cloudy + misty dawn with a minimum of -5*C and a mostly cloudy day (low stratus) and a max of just +1*C, but a little late sun as the cloud broke. Cloudy and -1*C in the evening awaiting a little snow from the NE.

Regarding the snow depths in the NE of England and the E of Scotland the official station figures are somewhat misleading as they may well be automated measurements. At 1800GMT on Monday 29th, Redesdale (Northumberland) reported 31cm, Aviemore 30cm, Albermarle (Northumberland) 27cm and Aberdeen Airport 15cm. The manual station at Cromdale (Scottish Highlands) reported 39cm. However, the various weather forums here in the UK suggest 40cm+ in many places including the outer suburbs of Newcastle , Edinburgh and Aberdeen. The town of Rothbury (Northumberland) was featured on the BBC news and it looked more like an Alpine village than a UK market town....the reporter was stood in 50cm+ of level snow and in an open area with no evidence of drifting. This is representative of the more rural areas in NE England and E Scotland.

[NZstorm]

so it seems that the predictions of a very cold winter for europe made a month ago or so are coming true

There is high pressure over Scandinavia which drags the cold air off Russia and channels it toward the UK. Normally there is low pressure over Scandinavia.

GFS 12Z chart showing 850mb temps.