The low between Fiji and Samoa looks to have become fairly well organised overnight. Be interested to see what RSMC Nadi have to say this morn...
ABPW10 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201300Z-210600ZJAN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6S 178.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LLCC IS EVIDENT IN BOTH ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192143Z ASCAT PASS. AT 20/00Z AN
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM WALLIS ISLAND (NLWW), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 2 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, LOGGED SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) AT 1004 MB WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. A MORE RECENT 20/12Z SHIP OBSERVATION FROM
THE PACIFIC GAS (YJCZ5), LOCATED AT 15.5S 176.1W, DOCUMENTS SLP AT
1006 MB WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 25 KNOTS. THE REGION IS HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE ASCAT.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB BASED ON
THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS
POOR.//
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/0848 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1002 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 178.2W
AT 200600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PRESISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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ecmwf has been picking a vigourous depression to develop in the next week for a while, and has now picked this one up and has it also travelling our way. one to keep an eye on.
are you thinking about the low that is forecasted to develop near new caledonia and move down over the weekend, Veritgo?
(latest ECMWF has that developing quickly and moving down quickly, now (by sunday!)
Update from RSMC Nadi for the TD near Samoa and also the TD near New Caledonia...
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/2321 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1003 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.7S 177.1W
AT 202100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION
EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.0S 161.1E AT
202100 UTC, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500 HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
Plus JTWC update for the Samoa TD...
ABPW10 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210130Z-210600ZJAN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
178.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 175.4W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM,
HAS DEEPENED FURTHER AND BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING READILY APPARENT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 202124 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LIGHT (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(GREATER THAN 28C). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED EASTWARD
BY A LOW LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS
IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 06-24 HOURS
THEN DEFLECTING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE GROWS AND A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THESE ARE SUPPORTED
BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 202123Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OVER
THE SYSTEM. IN VIEW OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
FAIR.//
JTWC have issued an alert for the Samoa TD this morn...
WTPS21 PGTW 211700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 175.3W TO 13.8S 171.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 174.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
175.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.9W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION NOW YIELDS A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 2.0 OR 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. THE SYSTEM
LACKS PRONOUNCED BANDING IN MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, BUT DOES
SHOW SIGNS OF TURNING IN A 210807Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (SLP) FROM TAFITOALA, WESTERN SAMOA (91769) HAS DROPPED 2.2
MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AS OF 1324Z SLP WAS 1003.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION WITH SUFFICIENT
VENTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AND RANGE FROM 28
TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221700Z.//
NNNN
Last nights reports from RSMC Nadi for both the Samoa TD and New Caledonia TD...
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/0908 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1001 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.7S 176.9W
AT 210900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED OVER THE CENTRE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCUALTION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F [998 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.8S 163.0E AT
210600 UTC, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500 HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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JTWC have upgraded the TD near Samoa to a TC this arvo - Nadi have yet to name it (Wilma?)...
WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 173.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST OF PAGO
PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON A 220047Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, NFFN,
AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS
FROM TAFITOALA, SAMOA ARE REPORTING A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECREASE OF
4 MB WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTWESTWARD. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC 08P SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING AROUND TAU 72 AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN THE
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DEPICT DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THE TURN. GFS DEPICTS A SLOWER TURN TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
SAMOA TO PAGO PAGO, WHILE NOGAPS AND GFDN SHOW A FASTER TURN PRIOR
TO REACHING SAMOA. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 211700Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 211700) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 22/0222 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [998 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 174.1W AT
220000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.TD06F MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN 80 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE OF
TD 06F DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS INDICATES A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 2.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD06F
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS THEN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
220830 UTC.
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RSMC Nadi formally named TC Wilma last night. She's currently hooking around the top of the Samoa islands rather than below below them...
GALE WARNING 055 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/1339 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.3 SOUTH 172.7 WEST AT 221200 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.3S 172.7W AT 221200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 231200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.8S 172.0W AT 230000 UTC
AND NEAR 14.6S 171.7W AT 231200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNEL. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
Earlier JTWC remarks...
WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002//...
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 172.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (220649Z 37H TRMM AND 220755Z 91H SSMIS)
DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES, WHICH DEPICT A POSITION SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW (>10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO RECURVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND BECOMES
THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET) BY TAU 96. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120, BUT
MAY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING
ET AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST'S AND UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH DEPICTS A LATER
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS WESTWARD TRACK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE LATER TAUS,
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 22/2005 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 171.0W AT
221800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS
BY 231200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED LAST 24 HOURS.PRIMARY BAND TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.0
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA EAST THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 003// ...
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 171.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A 221731Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 45 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08P IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC WILMA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AROUND TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COULD POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE COMPLETING ET.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND UKMO. GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD INTO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH AND UKMO TURNS THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THESE SCENARIOS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY; THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
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Wilma was looking a little shabby yesterday but appears to have improved overnight. Currently battering American Samoa's capital of Pago Pago...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/1402 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 171.0W AT
231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY 240000UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LAST 24 HOURS WITH
LLCC BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE PAST
6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.5 PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
Earlier JTWC remarks...
WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004//
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230608Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENHANCED NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF TC 08P, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, IS
HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED
INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC WILMA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS PAGO PAGO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH
FILLS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE OHC VALUES WHICH DROP OFF NEAR 25
DEGREES SOUTH. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 72, BUT COULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ET DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN THE
INITIAL TAUS, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST RECENT MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT FURTHER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, DEPICTING A
STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SHIFT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, FAVORING
A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST AND RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST
JUST NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND RATHER THEN NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.
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The models seem to be all over the place on this one, even more so than usual for TCs. There appears to be little or no aggreance between the major models, which again is nothing too unusual but usually this is the case for a day or two then they start agreeing on some sort of outcome. One model outlook which I look at is the 14 day rainfall outlook from GFS (its called a 10 day outlook for some strange reason). http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html
It gives a good general idea of what GFS is predicting rainfall wise in the next week and then the following week as you can see the expected path and intensity of the rain bearing systems. Of course the 2nd week changes dramatically in each run but usually the 1st week stays fairly constant, although in the last week or so its been chopping and changing just as much as week 2!
I've heard ECM & GFS aren't very good when it comes to tracking tropical systems though as they are geared for latitudes around 25 to 45 degrees, apparently TLaps is a lot better although this ones outputs seem to be a bit harder to find.
From Nadi: "Tropical Cyclone (TC) Wilma strengthened to a CAT 3 cyclone (or hurricane intensity) early this morning with a central pressure estimated 970hPa. At 10am today the cyclone centre was located near 19.7 South 173.8 West or about 120 km south of Vavau or 215 km northeast of Nukualofa and about 840 km east-northeast of Suva. The cyclone is moving southwest around 28 km/hr. Close to the centre, winds are estimated at 120 km/hr with momentary gusts to 170 km/hr. The cyclone is intensifying."
What a beast! Catagory 3, 970hpa, and heading in this general direction.
Yes, Wilma, currently Cat 3, is beginning to batter the northern island groups in Tonga...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 24/1959 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 173.0W AT 241800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND
TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND
WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON VIS
1.4 LOG 10 SPIRAL AND EIR EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE LG SURROUND
YIELDING DT 4.5 MET=4.5 PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 006//
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 171.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
240555Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND HINDER WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD, TC 08P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH FILLS.
BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SST AND OHC
VALUES BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. TC 08P IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72, BUT
COULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE COMPLETING
ET NEAR TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DEVIATES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TENDENCY HAS ALSO INDICATED A SHIFT WESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIFT IN THE STR TO THE WEST, WHICH HAS DELAYED
THE TIMING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE SHIFT IN MODEL TRACKERS AND IS
WITHIN THE AIDS ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.
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didnt TC Bola come in from a similar angle?
also arent the sea temperatures warmer for the latitude around Tonga, where it is now, for the same latitude further west? (eg the New Caledonia area)
Manukau heads obs wrote:didnt TC Bola come in from a similar angle?
also arent the sea temperatures warmer for the latitude around Tonga, where it is now, for the same latitude further west? (eg the New Caledonia area)
shows that is currently slightly cooler near New Calidonia, probably as a result of TC Vania stirring up the surface and because of heavy rainfall associated with her passage. So yes they appear to be warmer around Tonga presently.
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