NZ Weather Forum

Thanks for the reports Nev.

Next polar jet stream in the flow is moving north over the country tomorrow, with a few lightning strikes on both east and west coasts.

Nev wrote:Been a bit of lightning damage in Hamilton and Auckland yesterday...

Hamilton Aero's runway lights were temporarily knocked out (during the day) and a couple of nearby buildings also appear to have been affected.

'Runway lights at Hamilton Airport 'short-circuited' by lightning' - TVNZ
'Lightning strike near Hamilton Airport' - TVNZ

And in Auckland, lightning appears to have caused a blaze in Golflands near Howick, blew a hole in the floor of a house in Clevedon and caused a small electrical fire at a house in Whenuapai.

'Fire in Golflands, House hit by lightning in Clevedon' - Times Live
'House struck by lightning in Auckland' - NewstalkZB

I can't see any suggestion lightning caused that fire in Golflands. Would be surprising because the only thunder heard here yesterday just after 4pm sounded quite distant

David wrote:I can't see any suggestion lightning caused that fire in Golflands. Would be surprising because the only thunder heard here yesterday just after 4pm sounded quite distant

Yes, after rereading that story and checking Blitzortung, you're probably right - mybad…

Looking ahead to next Friday could the start of the spring westerly pattern be coming early?

Absolutely loving what Tony is forecasting for next winter, whatever happens it can't be anywhere near as bad as this winter so far!!

At about the same time the QBO is expected to switch to its more southerly phase, which raises the intriguing and rather worrying prospect of next winter featuring the triple whammy of:
- more southerly airflows,
- colder than normal ocean temperatures east and south of the country,
- and a weak to moderate La Nina which would develop more storms over the warm Tasman Sea and develop periods of easterly quarter airflow over the country.

Needless to say, there would be a very harsh winter if these conditions do combine, bringing the potential for considerable storminess, snow, and plenty of cloudy cold weather. Early advice for next winter: buy a new pair of gumboots and gather plenty of firewood!

Bradley wrote:Absolutely loving what Tony is forecasting for next winter, whatever happens it can't be anywhere near as bad as this winter so far!!

At about the same time the QBO is expected to switch to its more southerly phase, which raises the intriguing and rather worrying prospect of next winter featuring the triple whammy of:
- more southerly airflows,
- colder than normal ocean temperatures east and south of the country,
- and a weak to moderate La Nina which would develop more storms over the warm Tasman Sea and develop periods of easterly quarter airflow over the country.

Needless to say, there would be a very harsh winter if these conditions do combine, bringing the potential for considerable storminess, snow, and plenty of cloudy cold weather. Early advice for next winter: buy a new pair of gumboots and gather plenty of firewood!

Ok, dont get carried away now! Remember, I did state clearly this is not a forecast, not a prediction, its just thinking out loud based on what is in play at the moment. Very obviously, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge (or through the jet stream!) before these ideas can be considered a forecast, if they ever are.

Richard wrote:Looking ahead to next Friday could the start of the spring westerly pattern be coming early?

Nope.

TonyT wrote:

Bradley wrote:Absolutely loving what Tony is forecasting for next winter, whatever happens it can't be anywhere near as bad as this winter so far!!

At about the same time the QBO is expected to switch to its more southerly phase, which raises the intriguing and rather worrying prospect of next winter featuring the triple whammy of:
- more southerly airflows,
- colder than normal ocean temperatures east and south of the country,
- and a weak to moderate La Nina which would develop more storms over the warm Tasman Sea and develop periods of easterly quarter airflow over the country.

Needless to say, there would be a very harsh winter if these conditions do combine, bringing the potential for considerable storminess, snow, and plenty of cloudy cold weather. Early advice for next winter: buy a new pair of gumboots and gather plenty of firewood!

Ok, dont get carried away now! Remember, I did state clearly this is not a forecast, not a prediction, its just thinking out loud based on what is in play at the moment. Very obviously, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge (or through the jet stream!) before these ideas can be considered a forecast, if they ever are.

Yeah I know but seriously after the winter so far I am willing to cling onto anything, no matter how remote!!

Bradley wrote:Absolutely loving what Tony is forecasting for next winter,

Where did you get this info from?

Very intense thunderstorm right now. 3 big flashes with very close thunder and now hail

Out of curiosity what are peoples rainfall totals so far this month? Particularly Canterbury

6 flashes in total now all followed instantly by thunder

Distant thunder heard here and lightning observed to the west.

matttbs wrote:Out of curiosity what are peoples rainfall totals so far this month? Particularly Canterbury

25mm so far here

TonyT wrote:

Richard wrote:Looking ahead to next Friday could the start of the spring westerly pattern be coming early?

Nope.

bugger

153.7mm at Runanga

Bradley wrote:Absolutely loving what Tony is forecasting for next winter, whatever happens it can't be anywhere near as bad as this winter so far!!

At about the same time the QBO is expected to switch to its more southerly phase, which raises the intriguing and rather worrying prospect of next winter featuring the triple whammy of:
- more southerly airflows,
- colder than normal ocean temperatures east and south of the country,
- and a weak to moderate La Nina which would develop more storms over the warm Tasman Sea and develop periods of easterly quarter airflow over the country.

Needless to say, there would be a very harsh winter if these conditions do combine, bringing the potential for considerable storminess, snow, and plenty of cloudy cold weather. Early advice for next winter: buy a new pair of gumboots and gather plenty of firewood!

The QBO has an easterly phase and a westerly phase. The "southerly phase" of the QBO? I don't think such a thing exists.

Looking like we are stuck in quite a disturbed pattern!
The next polar jet stream moves north over NZ tomorrow.
The associated front moves across the North Island tomorrow evening with severe wind gusts, some heavy rain and possibly some lightning.

Richard wrote:

matttbs wrote:Out of curiosity what are peoples rainfall totals so far this month? Particularly Canterbury

25mm so far here

14mm for us so far here up against the Port Hills in SW Christchurch. Tracking low again and not looking like much action for the rest of the month at this stage

tunster wrote:The QBO has an easterly phase and a westerly phase. The "southerly phase" of the QBO? I don't think such a thing exists.

Simplified wording on my part for the lay audience. The QBO measures westerly or easterly anomalies in tropical stratospheric winds, but this reflects as a tendency for more northerly or southerly airflow over NZ.

Razor wrote: 14mm for us so far here up against the Port Hills in SW Christchurch. Tracking low again and not looking like much action for the rest of the month at this stage

More chance of spill over rains from the west for us, a lot less for you

matttbs wrote:Out of curiosity what are peoples rainfall totals so far this month? Particularly Canterbury

15mm here for the month

matttbs wrote:Out of curiosity what are peoples rainfall totals so far this month? Particularly Canterbury

Bugger all, not much so far so

Wet most of the day in Akaroa; looks like BP the only part of Canterbury like that today. (fine in Chch when I left early this morning)

Ominous red sky looking towards the Coromandel this morning…