General January Weather

[spwill]

The GFS has a dewpoint forecast of 22C for parts of the upper North Island on Saturday, unusual humidity for NZ if it comes off.

[RWood]

My observation was based on the ICC's last 6 years of data (no data from late-Feb to Nov, 2015). Admittedly, the more extreme T-max anomalies between the ICC WS and the airport do seem to have lessened over the last year compared to previous years. So maybe something has changed?

Note that before yesterday, Invercargill Aero had only recorded 2 30.0C+ days so far this century, compared to 30 days in the last 6 years at the ICC's WS. And although the last of those 30 days (Feb 03, 2016) was only 1.6C higher than the airport, all the others (between Dec 2011 and Feb 2015) were between 3.5C and 7.0C higher than at the airport, with an average anomaly of 5.1C.

Maybe they've changed the weather station. As for the airport, I'm not surprised that they record very few 30+ degree days. If there was another weather station elsewhere in the city, it would likely be a different story!

I have previously pointed out that an older town site was only 0.6C or thereabouts warmer than the airport. These recent events don't change the fact that Invercargill - and all of NZ - has cool summers for its latitude, thanks to the southern ocean. Trondheim in Norway at 63.4N latitude has summers as warm as Invercargill's.

[David]

The GFS has a dewpoint forecast of 22C for parts of the upper North Island on Saturday, unusual humidity for NZ if it comes off.

And currently showing around 100mm rain for Thursday. Must be overestimating surely...

[Orion]

Another bonny Mid-Canterbury summer day here today, temp. around 29 or 30 C over the past hour or so.

[einzack]

Damn hot again today. Currently 31.9°C.

[jamie]

GFS keeps coming back to Sunday being a very active day for the upper North Island.

[Richard]

Bit of cloud about today hasn't done much to cool things down much, 30.2deg atm

[Razor]

Bit of cloud about today hasn't done much to cool things down much, 30.2deg atm

Hopefully a bit cooler up that way on Saturday- running the St James Station 100km ultra

[Richard]

Being a bit higher up might help keep it a bit cooler Razor

[NZstorm]

I see Dunedin Airport got to 35C today. The PWS in Mosgiel had similar temps.

[einzack]

We hit 33.6°C which is a station record for me.
The duration of the hot temps impressed me. We were >31°C from 1pm to 6pm.
More often than not we don't maintain it for that long time.
It's now 20.1°C with a few rumbles of thunder.
Much nicer.

[NZstorm]

Looks rainy for Auckland Thursday/Friday with isolated heavy convective falls.

Thunderstorms possible Sunday or Monday.

[Richard]

Last three days, 30.7, 30.8 and 30.7 deg highs, rare to have such similar warm temps 3 days running, nice and cooler today thanks to high cloud

[David]

Metservice has issued heavy rain warnings for a number of areas, including Auckland, which surprised me since GFS isn't showing anything particularly heavy here.

Issued by MetService at 9:10am Wednesday 17-Jan-2018

Heavy rain for the ranges of Westland south of Otira, Nelson, northern Marlborough, Northland, Auckland and northern parts of Taranaki.

An active front moves slowly across New Zealand from today (Wednesday) through to Friday, bringing a period of rain to much of the north and west of the country. The heaviest rain is expected for the ranges of Westland south of Otira and Nelson from about Motueka westwards, with 150 to 250mm of rain during Wednesday and early Thursday. Heavy rain is also expected in Northland, Auckland and north Taranaki where 100 to 150mm is likely, but up to 250mm about Mount Taranaki, from late Wednesday until early Friday.

Heavy Rain Warning
Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.
Area: Northland, especially north and west of Kaikohe
Valid: 24 hours from 6:00pm Wednesday to 6:00pm Thursday
Forecast: A period of heavy northerly rain. Expect 100 to 150mm of rain mainly north and west Kaikohe, with 50 to 80mm about southeastern areas. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr during Thursday.

Area: Auckland
Valid: 24 hours from 6:00am Thursday to 6:00am Friday
Forecast: Period of heavy northerly rain, with isolated heavy falls. Expect 80 to 120mm of northerly rain, with peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr Thursday afternoon, evening and overnight in isolated heavy falls.

Area: Taranaki, about and north of Eltham
Valid: 28 hours from 8:00pm Wednesday to 12:00am Friday
Forecast: Period of heavy northerly rain. Expect 200 to 250mm about Mount Taranaki, with 80 to 120mm about and north of Eltham.
Changes: Watch has been upgraded to a warning and extended to encompass the whole region.

Area: Nelson
Valid: 20 hours from 10:00am Wednesday to 6:00am Thursday
Forecast: Expect 200 to 250mm of northerly rain about the ranges west of Motueka, and 80 to 100mm elsewhere. Peak rates of 25 to 35mm per hour Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Area: The Richmond and Bryant Ranges, and the Marlborough Sounds
Valid: 15 hours from 3:00pm Wednesday to 6:00am Thursday
Forecast: A period of heavy northerly rain. Expect 100 to 150mm about the Ranges, with 60 to 90mm elsewhere.
Changes: Upgraded to a warning.

Area: The ranges of Westland south of Otira
Valid: 21 hours from 9:00am Wednesday to 6:00am Thursday
Forecast: Expect 150 to 200mm of north to northeast rain. Peak rates of 15 to 25mm per hour.


This warning will be updated by: 9:00pm Wednesday 17-Jan-2018

A service provided through a contract with the Crown

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2018

[David]

Modeling showing some hot weather next week and beyond, potentially even places like Auckland could reach 30C with the numbers I'm seeing in the GFS...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Thunderstorm developing now in and around the Mt. Peel area
more info shortly

[Orion]

Just checked rain radar, thinking I heard thunder in the distance: very interesting colours, purple, red, white around the Rangitata River just now.

[Powermad]

Lurking just finished work...!

[Razor]

Just on way home from mt Somers, that storm.over Mt Peel way looks mean. Its just been subject to a possible tornado warning too I see

[Captain Salty]

31 here and at Jeff's but only 27 at airport.

[Chris W]

Bit of an upgrade on the thunderstorm forecast an hour ago! Went from a low risk to moderate and now a severe thunderstorm watch south of Chch:

Screenshot_20180118-164312.png

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just came back from a short 'chase' around the Wooodbury area and up on the Downs.
Thought it was a bit of a boring storm, non photographic anyway. Lots of rumbly thunder but mostly in the cloud as I never saw any lightning. Looked interesting on the radar though.
Only 3mm of rain here but some other places might of got a bit more.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Bit of an upgrade on the thunderstorm forecast an hour ago! Went from a low risk to moderate and now a severe thunderstorm watch south of Chch:

Judging from my observation I wouldn't regard the Ts as severe but then the radar did look good.

[Chris W]

Severe risk is more towards the city than Geraldine/Mt Peel.

[Captain Salty]

there is a fresh easterly blowing in eastern chch too, they're only on 19