General May Weather

[Dale]

Nice observation Orion.. got caught in a downpour here which I am pretty sure I heard some flecks of hail on the roof.. roughly aroung 1230ish.. now into the SW change so going to be chilling out for a couple of days

[Orion]

A very pink sunrise this morning, all around the horizon.

[NZstorm]

Decent looking polar burst for the deep south. Sunday nights thckness chart.

[spwill]

Fiordland, Southland and South Otago in the firing line for low level snow, perhaps not much getting past Balclutha depending on how much west or south is in that southwest flow.

[Richard]

NW wind started back blowing about 9.00 this morning and quite strong at time too,a taste of things to come.

[CWUweather]

Decent looking polar burst for the deep south. Sunday nights thckness chart.

Back down to 521 thickness over Canterbury now. Snow showers down to 300m perhaps. Arthurs Pass going to get hammered during Saturday with a cols WSW flow coming in. 30cm there perhaps?

[Storm Struck]

Dead calm on the lower plains this afternoon I kind of expected the strong NW to be back by now, should be in a few hours I would imagine.
Saturdays front has a flick of showers on a very SW change which will be coastal, could be a an isolated thunderstorm with hail from Oamaru brushing the outer Peninnsula at night.
Overnight on Sunday I think the air is cold enough we could see pockets in deeper shower clouds where brief flakes fall to atleast 100-200m, this means sleet and hail lower down but there wont be a hell of a lot.
Still any early taste of winter only a week out.

[einzack]

we're expecting quite a lot of rain here in Reefton. 80-90mm tomorrow, which is a lot for us in 1 day. and it's cold already. we're on 8.6°C and I see Hokitika is on 8.7°C which is unusual.

[Bradley]

Dead calm on the lower plains this afternoon I kind of expected the strong NW to be back by now, should be in a few hours I would imagine.
Saturdays front has a flick of showers on a very SW change which will be coastal, could be a an isolated thunderstorm with hail from Oamaru brushing the outer Peninnsula at night.
Overnight on Sunday I think the air is cold enough we could see pockets in deeper shower clouds where brief flakes fall to atleast 100-200m, this means sleet and hail lower down but there wont be a hell of a lot.
Still any early taste of winter only a week out.

Mate does it seem strange to you that the Metservice are still going for 10C max for Christchurch on Monday? Seems to me this setup is the same as last May's big cold front which produced a max of 7.5C for Christchurch?

[matttbs]

Last May's storm produced a few flakes in the city did it not? Also this system looks a tad colder than last years. I see metservice have got heavy snow for the south in their outlook, moderate confidence too

[Dean.]

Decent looking polar burst for the deep south. Sunday nights thckness chart.

Back down to 521 thickness over Canterbury now. Snow showers down to 300m perhaps. Arthurs Pass going to get hammered during Saturday with a cols WSW flow coming in. 30cm there perhaps?

I see your Facebook forecast predicting 15 to 20cm for Porters Pass.Maybe 1 to 2cm if lucky.All the action will be out west apart from a coastal flick Sunday night.

[Dale]

80-90mm for Reefton? Well I have been waiting all day for the predicted heavy falls of rain here in the Grey but nothing has eventuated, as of yet. The temps have been a bit of an eye opener though, still blowing slightly from the NW direction but it has barely scraped past about 13 or 14 all day. See what happens overnight/tomorrow I spose

[David]

I see Whangerei has only had 10mm so far this month. It sure has been a dry month for some parts, especially in the North Island.

I've recorded 37mm here.

[einzack]

80-90mm for Reefton? Well I have been waiting all day for the predicted heavy falls of rain here in the Grey but nothing has eventuated, as of yet. The temps have been a bit of an eye opener though, still blowing slightly from the NW direction but it has barely scraped past about 13 or 14 all day. See what happens overnight/tomorrow I spose

the latest metservice run is now down to 70mm.
personally I'd be very surprised if we see anything like that. only measured 80+mm in a day twice since began recording in 2011.
and it'd be a huge pain at work if anything like that does eventuate, so i'm all for a gross over prediction.

[CWUweather]

Yeh, my bad, sort of was a spare of the moment update, definitely less that 5cm. Arthurs will probably get good dumping!
Regarding Deano's comment

[melja]

I will tell you how it goes over the passes, I'm heading over tonight back Sunday.
I see metservice have the wind warning now up to 150 kph.

[melja]

CWU, freezing levels still look to be 1500m or above for most of Saturday and much of sunday so I doubt Arthurs pass will get any were near your "hammered" 30cm of snow. your own forecasts say 17C over the weekend for chch so hows that going to happen with all that snow your predicting up there.

[CWUweather]

Freezing levels lower to 1000m tomorrow afternoon. But seeing as how it is a westerly wind tomorrow, it might be a bit warmer down here. Despite this, it cools down during the afternoon as the colder air moves in. TO be honest, it is probably more Saturday evening Arthurs Pass will get hit.
But always remember, the high is the point in the day when the temperature is at its highest. Therefore, it may reach 17deg before the colder air moves in during the afternoon.
Probably could have worded the update a bit better mind you, could have come across a bit confusing.

[Razor]

CWU, freezing levels still look to be 1500m or above for most of Saturday and much of sunday so I doubt Arthurs pass will get any were near your "hammered" 30cm of snow. your own forecasts say 17C over the weekend for chch so hows that going to happen with all that snow your predicting up there.

Local knowledge is more relevant than anything at Arthurs. Graeme Kates runs a great website- I would pay attention to this

http://www.softrock.co.nz

175mm of rain so far in the viallage from this event, so its signficant already

Friday 23/05/2014: (Updated 0741hrs) Very heavy rain (thunderstorms) & gales have commenced; there was a dusting of snow down to 1000m overnight but it has now gone, and snow levels are not expected to lower much below 1900m today.

Showers turning to low level snow (800m) with NW gales tomorrow. Heavy snow (700m) on Sunday with severe westerly gales. Snow showers clearing on Monday with a SW change. Mainly fine on Tuesday.

[melja]

Well don't need to worry now anyway as its shut now for at least 3 days with a massive slip on the otira side
Oh well might have to stay at the family bach in arthurs pass then and see how all this snow pans out then .

[spike_01]

Wind is picking up in Wellington.. Supposed to get up to 130kph here in the hills.

Real pink sky this morning.

[jamie]

could be an interesting rugby math on saturday night.

[spike_01]

could be an interesting rugby match on saturday night.

Haha yeah looking forward to it.. Might be a tad windy here.. Unusual..

[Storm Struck]

could be an interesting rugby math on saturday night.

Could be a close game, same with the crusaders highlanders game its a very close nit competition for NZ teams this year.

Anyway it certainly hasn't been as bad east on the plains today, the wind got gusty mid morning to afternoon but nothing out of the ordinary or over 40kmh.
I would say the stronger winds were in the high country from North Canterbury into Marlborough, even the rain stayed west of the foothills.
Sunday night into Monday still looks very SW but my pick is the typical chain shower channel through Ellesmere northwards for a time 6-10am on Monday could see some icy showers there probably more in the form of sleet/hail but the snow level will be between 100-300m in pockets of lighter to heavier showers.
Most of which the peninsula will catch.

[Tornado Tim]

Had a good Chat with Bob McDavitt yesterday in Raglan, had a good chat about the Weather and what he's been up to. What the weathers currently doing. Plus the Met Society etc...
Showed him round the MetOcean office as well.

Currently getting showers, some of them on the moderate to slightly heavy side.
Low risk of Thunder to central Waikato with the passage of the front tomorrow.