NZ Weather Forum

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 29/08/2018 17:19 Finished on 37mm here before the sun returned. Roughly double what models expected on the 12z run. They struggle with the impacts of cut off lows on a mesoscale level IMO.

Certainly was interesting observing the differences in models. Personally I think MetVUW did quite well in the last 24 hours, unlike some others. I'd be interested in others opinions.

What model do you think did the worst job btw?

Huge upgrade in the latest run of EC this morning with 40-50mm of rain now forecast for Canterbury on Monday and heavy snowfall above 500m...could get very interesting if the colder air pushes through earlier and lowers the snow line even further

Interesting fact I just noticed on my metservice weather calendar for yesterday:

30 August 1972 - the highest South Island temperature of 24.2C was recorded at Hanmer.

Fog lifting here now, we have had more fog than usual around here this Winter.

Might see a few towering cloud build ups around here today.

David wrote: ↑Fri 31/08/2018 08:18 Interesting fact I just noticed on my metservice weather calendar for yesterday:

30 August 1972 - the highest South Island temperature of 24.2C was recorded at Hanmer.

In those days the recording station was run by the forest service at there village headquarters just east of the town, it was a very sheltered micoclimate location nestled amoungst tall conifers

^ Yes, NIWA's current Hanmer (Carter Holt Harvey) Forest site was moved about 1.3 km further south in 1995. Its highest August daily temp of 25.1C was also recorded on Aug 30 in 2005, and Amberley recorded 25.4C the next day.

spwill wrote: ↑Fri 31/08/2018 08:58 Might see a few towering cloud build ups around here today.

Couple photos from my walk at lunch time today

A few heat showers around, isolated thunder last hr for Northland

A thunderstorm cell showing up just SE of Auckland

Just clocked a rainfall rate of 149mm/h under a brief downpour. 6mm in no time and now sun with a clap of thunder on the backend.

Thunder to east just now.

Thunder now. Can't tell which direction it came from though

Now I know! Loud thunder just south of Howick

It's quite an active cell, best I've seen around these parts for a while.

Been hearing thunder here.
Photo of storm just east of here

Gosh. Cannon-like thunder to the east of here now!

Might get some drizzle here, if we're lucky

Miserable day in Amberley and Chch, yuck.

For those who are interested, here are the global model accuracy stats @500 hPa for Aug, southern hemisphere reported by NOAA (120 hours). UK closed the gap on EC from July

1. EC 90%
2. UK 89%
3. Can 86.3%
4. New GFS 86% (Still in development)
5. GFS 85.7%
6. U.S Navy 82%
7. CFS 79%

I still think EC is No 1.

Thunder081 wrote: ↑Wed 29/08/2018 23:07

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 29/08/2018 22:28 On 7 sharp, this evening, apparently there was an article about lightning.
Did anyone see it?

Yeah it was cool, I wonder if he's on this forum? Also anyone who didn't see it can watch it here: http://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/seven-sharp ... ping-count

Thankyou for posting this.

A bit better than years ago when Gary McCormack interviewed Bob and I just after I got a new haircut.
Looks a bit like Jeremy's in that item.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 31/08/2018 18:38 I still think EC is No 1.

GFS/Metvuw most reliable for me for this area

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 31/08/2018 19:15

Thunder081 wrote: ↑Wed 29/08/2018 23:07

Yeah it was cool, I wonder if he's on this forum? Also anyone who didn't see it can watch it here: http://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/seven-sharp ... ping-count

Thankyou for posting this.

A bit better than years ago when Gary McCormack interviewed Bob and I just after I got a new haircut.
Looks a bit like Jeremy's in that item.

Saw your interview do you still get up on the roof?

August stats

104.4mm (ave 114mm)
Daily mean temp 12.2c, 0.9c above normal.

Year to date rain 1039mm , 228mm above normal.
Year to date temp mean 16.6, 1.4c above normal.

Stats from my station:

Mean temp = 11.3C
Mean daily max = 15.7C
Mean daily min = 7.2C
Coldest temp = 3.8C (4th)
Highest temp = 18.4C (29th)

145mm rain for the month, YTD already up to 1267mm. Attached is the yearly rain accumulation chart, shows the last 2 years have been unusually wet.