General November Weather

[Manukau heads obs]

one cold summers day does not mean there is no global warming though
its the long term trend (with ups and downs)

[Myself]

Beautiful morning here. 16 degrees and dead still. Hardly a cloud in the sky. The forecast high of 15 was always going to be passed. It is now ammended to 16 but more like 20 today, long as the NE doesnt get too fresh too soon.

Well NZCH reached 16C at the highest so the forecast was correct.

Wellington hasn't gone terribly out of recent weather, though there's been some glum days and it's frustrating going through the routine of one day of southerlies, one day of northwesterlies, one days of..... etc etc

Michael is probably right about is SW'er. Without the Waikato/BOP heat low the strength of the SW will be somewhat capped. Lucky Aucklanders!

[RWood]

Last I saw on Cliflo for W'gton (out of country) was 60hrs sun and 0.2mm rain for Wgton in first week, so certainly a better start than awful October.

[Richard]

Mm, Global warming my ar..
Show me evidence of it and I'll show you a cold summers day.

Cheers.

Yer right ,tell that to the Eskimos

[spwill]

Wellington hasn't gone terribly out of recent weather

The cool temps have been the issue here but Aucklands cool weather is still warmer than the Wellington average.

[Michael]

Our minimums have been quite normal.

The cool temps have been the issue here but Aucklands cool weather is still warmer than the Wellington average.

[Myself]

Worth noting that both the GFS and ECMWF follow a similar idea of a low crossing the North Island in the middle of next week, followed quickly by a fairly broad and potentially stubborn high for most of NZ.
So we could be looking at a rather settled weekend of 21st-22nd if that comes off.

The upper ridge moves into the Tasman Sea, and South Australia gets hit with a decent low, and presumably hot northerly winds ahead of it for Victoria.

All a long way out, but lets see how the trend evolves, since in recent weeks the models have got more and more cruel with anticyclones as they get nearer the time.

[NZstorm]

So we could be looking at a rather settled weekend of 21st-22nd if that comes off.

GFS is bringing in hot air around that timeframe too, can we believe it.

[Manukau heads obs]

currently we are running -1.2C colder than normal for Nov
alot of making up to do!

[NZstorm]

I see frost in inland SI this morn, -2C at Omarama and 0C at Ashburton. Inland NI cold too with 4C at Taupo.

[Nev]

currently we are running -1.2C colder than normal for Nov
alot of making up to do!

Yes, Akld Aero's mean so far also -1.2°C below normal (Tmax -1.5°C, Tmin -0.9°C), although Mangere's even more at about -1.8°C below normal.

Also very dry here - only 6.5mm so far this month - about half that of Akld Aero. Hopefully we might double it on Wednesday next week.

[spwill]

Looks like we might be moving into a different weather pattern later next week, average to above average temperatures for NZ.

[Michael]

The night time temps havent been cold here this month however.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

I find it very hard to believe we are going to get to 25 degrees today. Cold northeasterly blowing rather strong, just 12 degrees and now high cloud becoming widespread. Lucky to hit 18-20 at this stage. Will need skies to clear and a NW to kick in before midday. It was clear as two hours ago. Also tomorrow we have fine weather with northwesterles and just 17 forecast. Im going to call that way off already. Im expecting early to mid 20's tomorrow and the 15 on Monday more like 20-22. I cant really understand why they are so low. Just my opinion. Will eat my hat in 3 days if im wrong about Sunday and Monday.

[spwill]

A NW wind is forecast to develop, will bring in warmer air ( if it develops) and the flow over the South mon/sun has its origins well south of NZ.

[Weetbicks]

Where are those North Westerlies, I'm freezing here!

[snowstormwatcher]

light frost here this morning overnight low of 0.1

[Storm Struck]

Yes where is that NWer its still fresh cool NE here at the moment, although thickening high cloud.
Should be here by this afternoon and break up this high cloud abit, MS are up and down with thier forecast maximums first it was 25 last night, then 21 this morning and now its 22 .
I see a moderate risk for thunderstorms exists south of Christchurch tomorrow, depends on how well that onshore NE can sneak in against the NW inland.
However the dewpoints are not too bad i must admit, what are others thoughts too much dry air tomorrow or a chance?.

[tunster]

Here is the Christchurch regional forecast and the domestic TAF: (northwesterly expected later this afternoon).

CHRISTCHURCH

Today: Fine, with increasing high cloud. Northwesterlies
developing, gusting 90 km/h about Banks Peninsula late afternoon and
evening.
Sunday: Fine, with high cloud at first. Gusty northwesterlies
dying out for a time from late morning.

TAF NZCH 1400/1424 05015KT 9999 SCT030
BECMG 1403/1405 33018G30KT
BECMG 1419/1421 25012KT
2000FT WIND 02020KT
BECMG 1401/1403 33030KT
BECMG 1417/1419 30020KT
QNH 1400/1415 MNM 993 MAX 1002
QNH 1415/1424 MNM 986 MAX 995

[NZstorm]

what are others thoughts too much dry air tomorrow or a chance?.

Banks Peninsula could be a good spot for thunder/hail tomorrow afternoon.

[Weetbicks]

Still no sign of NW'er ? The clouds appear to be moving in that direction, just not the wind at sea level *sigh*.

[tunster]

Still no sign of NW'er ? The clouds appear to be moving in that direction, just not the wind at sea level *sigh*.

BECMG 1403/1405 33018G30KT
(Expected between 4PM and 6PM)

[Weetbicks]

That's a bit of mumbo jumbo to me sorry, do you mind explaining it to me?

[Manukau heads obs]

33018G30KT
that bit means
330 degrees direrction, 18 knots gusting to 30 knots
from a metar

[snowstormwatcher]

northwesterly has just hit here currently 18 degrees