Cold change on Monday

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 26/02/2005 13:38

Looks like this month (though it'll most probably end up warmer than normal for NZ as a whole) will end with a cold southerly sweeping over NZ overnight Sunday and into Monday. How cold I'm not sure - will have to wait for mountain forecasts in the next few days. But there could easily be thunder and hail in places like Nelson, should the cold air arrive after the sun has warmed the ground.

There's already been discussion on the likelihood of thunderstorms in Canterbury on Monday in another thread. If MetService's prediction of the southerly arriving here on Monday afternoon comes true, then storms will be more likely, depending on the weather just prior to the change.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 26/02/2005 14:20

We shall enjoy it while we can today before the Rain and Gale Force Winds arrive

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 26/02/2005 14:49

Thunder looks highly possible for Otago and Canterbury tomorrow.
Also, the front could produce thunder into western areas as it moves north.

Weather looks brillantly fine for Michael next week in Auckland.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 27/02/2005 08:18

tich wrote:Looks like this month (though it'll most probably end up warmer than normal for NZ as a whole) will end with a cold southerly sweeping over NZ overnight Sunday and into Monday.

More than probably, I would think. Around central NZ I don't think there was a single day with max temps significantly below the norm. I expect W'gton's record to show one of the warmest Febs. ever.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 27/02/2005 08:23

tich wrote:Looks like this month (though it'll most probably end up warmer than normal for NZ as a whole) will end with a cold southerly sweeping over NZ overnight Sunday and into Monday.

More than probably, I would think. Around central NZ I don't think there was a single day with max temps significantly below the norm. I expect W'gton's record to show one of the warmest Febs. ever.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 27/02/2005 20:01

Freezing levels are expected to drop to 1100m in the far south tomorrow and 1900m in the central North Island by evening, so a dusting of white could well be likely on mountains exposed to any moisture from this cold flow.

Certainly should be the coldest day for this month.

More than probably, I would think. Around central NZ I don't think there was a single day with max temps significantly below the norm. I expect W'gton's record to show one of the warmest Febs. ever.

Yes certainly a warm month, but I doubt that for NZ as a whole, it will end up as warm as the hot February's of 1990 and 1998.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 27/02/2005 22:39

[/quote] Yes certainly a warm month, but I doubt that for NZ as a whole, it will end up as warm as the hot February's of 1990 and 1998.[/quote]

Agreed - I would guess it to come in a little lower at about 4th to 8th place. And in Central Otago, despite some very hot weather the record month should stay as Jan 1956 - I'm old enough to have experienced it (only for a few days in Central though).

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 28/02/2005 07:05

Rain has arrived and to be followed by Gale Force Winds

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 28/02/2005 07:07

My memory I reckon was the best was 1977/78 Nothing has really come close to that

RWood wrote:

Yes certainly a warm month, but I doubt that for NZ as a whole, it will end up as warm as the hot February's of 1990 and 1998.[/quote]

Agreed - I would guess it to come in a little lower at about 4th to 8th place. And in Central Otago, despite some very hot weather the record month should stay as Jan 1956 - I'm old enough to have experienced it (only for a few days in Central though).[/quote]

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 28/02/2005 07:27

Looking at Auckland airport figures, February 2005 is bang on the long term averages for rainfall, sunshine and temps.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 28/02/2005 07:27

Heavy rain for Ak to wake up too

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 28/02/2005 09:44

Some big clouds outside at the moment with Cb in there to by the looks, shows up nice on weatherzone. Wounder if we'll get anything or will it be just off the coast. I'd say we'll get some rain but not sure if any lightning/thunder will catch us, here's hoping!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 28/02/2005 11:53

03 Stormchaser wrote:Heavy rain for Ak to wake up too

Heavy rain has cleared up, now cloudy though.
I don't think the cool change will be as bad as it seems, freezing level set to be at 1450m Tuesday morning for the Tongariro NP, then retreating back to 3300m promptly.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 28/02/2005 13:52

NZstorm wrote:Looking at Auckland airport figures, February 2005 is bang on the long term averages for rainfall, sunshine and temps.

Interesting. I'll still stick to a guess that Feb was well above avg. temps for a large portion of NZ, certainly in the central zones.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 28/02/2005 15:32

RWood wrote:
NZstorm wrote:Looking at Auckland airport figures, February 2005 is bang on the long term averages for rainfall, sunshine and temps.
Interesting. I'll still stick to a guess that Feb was well above avg. temps for a large portion of NZ, certainly in the central zones.

New Plymouth will have a ripper on the NIWA summary

Manukau heads obs · Mon 28/02/2005 22:12

february for here has been a little bit warmer by the looks...from my averages.....but yes bascily average long term I would say
54mm does it make itr drier than normal, normal being more like 75mm

Aussie2005 · Unread post by **Aussie2005** » Mon 28/02/2005 22:30

Not New Zealand weather but thought I would post as general info

Wettest February for Victoria since 1973
February 2005 was a very wet month for all parts of Victoria. It was Victoria's wettest February since 1973 and the 7th wettest in the last 106 years.

This was largely on account of a deep rain-bearing low-pressure system developing over the State during the first week of the month.

As a consequence of the low-pressure system, numerous places received their heaviest 1-day rainfall totals on record during the 24-hour period ended 9am Thursday February 3. See Records.

February totals in the Northeast and Central Districts averaged 150 mm (several times the normal).

Summer rainfall totals were well above average throughout the State, wettest Summer since 1993, also largely on account of the event during the first week of February.

In Melbourne, there was 260 mm of rain over the summer (normal: 152.8 mm), including 177.8 mm during February (normal: 45.8 mm, 5th wettest February in 149 years), of which 120.2 mm fell in the 24-hour period to 9am on February 3.

Temperatures:

February 2005 was unusually cool, with daytime temperatures mostly between 2 and 4 deg C below average, and overnight temperatures mostly between 1 and 2 deg C below average. Victoria averaged its coolest February since 1954. On account of some very warm weather earlier in summer, temperatures over the season as a whole averaged close to normal.

In Melbourne, February maximum temperatures averaged 24.3 deg C (normal: 26.0 deg C), whilst February minimum temperatures averaged 14.5 deg C (normal: 15.5 deg C). Over the whole summer, maximum temperatures averaged 25.3 deg C (normal: also 25.3 deg C), whilst minimum temperatures averaged 15.0 deg C (normal: 14.8 deg C).

Additional dta regards averages, records for February at this link..
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/med ... l#extremes

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 28/02/2005 23:45

Well after all those big nice CU clouds this morning around CHCH and the cold southerly winds we are still left dry as a bone.
Although did get a few spits around 11amish then a few good showers around 4pm but that was when I was in town out here is a different story.
So I guess we will remain dry unless some rain falls overnight or if we are lucky some showers this Thursday and there's even the mention of possible Thunderstorms

I like the sound of it hmmmm

arghh we shall have to wait and see.
Off up to Pinch Gut hut which is around Mt Tomas area I believe going there for a 2 day sorta tramp but we will be clearing the track as well and putting up new path sighns for D.O.C.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET. BRRRR 10.2C right now

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 01/03/2005 08:02

Thunderstorms forecasted today for canterbury (fencepost.co.nz)
Im abit surprised

Aaron were those pics from yesterday??

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 01/03/2005 11:28

Hello back from Wellington/Moonshine after a brilliant WE (non-weather-wize that is)
Noticed driving into Wellington yesterday a long Cu cloud line from west to east of the impending southerly coming in. It would of made a good wide angle lensed photo. I never took my camera with me.

First day of Autumn today and my wife is quite pleased but I told her that more warm days should be coming.
Not too sure about thunder on Thursday by a quick little analysis but by current weather patterns a clap of 2 could be heard around ChCh this month

JohnGaul
NZTS

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 01/03/2005 11:53

03 Stormchaser wrote:Thunderstorms forecasted today for canterbury (fencepost.co.nz)
Im abit surprised
Aaron were those pics from yesterday??

The thunderstorms were forecast for Monday not Tuesday.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 01/03/2005 19:14

Wettest February for Victoria since 1973

Thanks for the summary of Victoria's Feb weather Aussie. Interesting.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 01/03/2005 19:44

Monday saw periods of often heavy showers out on the peninsula (typically more exposed to such weather than Chch). The southerly was cold, and there were strong gusts in the evening. Mostly cloudy today, and not particularly warm. Skies are clear now, so could be chilly tonight; maybe more light frosts in inland areas.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 01/03/2005 20:58

tich wrote:Freezing levels are expected to drop to 1100m in the far south tomorrow and 1900m in the central North Island by evening, so a dusting of white could well be likely on mountains exposed to any moisture from this cold flow.

Certainly should be the coldest day for this month.

More than probably, I would think. Around central NZ I don't think there was a single day with max temps significantly below the norm. I expect W'gton's record to show one of the warmest Febs. ever.
Yes certainly a warm month, but I doubt that for NZ as a whole, it will end up as warm as the hot February's of 1990 and 1998.

My guess was good. NIWA's website doesn't have the Feb. report out yet, but TVNZ quoted them as saying it was the 8th warmest Feb. for NZ - that's in a series of over 150. For W'gton I expect the ranking to be relatively higher. Also, Alex. is quoted at an official max of 38.7C, easily beating their previous all-months record of 37.2. That could be the highest officially accepted reading in NZ for at least 20 years, possibly since Feb 1973 (NO Darfield, your reading in Jan 2004 was 38.4).

The inability of members of the public to remember the weather of recent years or seasons - or even that of a few days ago in most cases - is once again demonstrated - TVNZ stuck their camera in front of a Wellingtonian who said the last 4 summers there had been "crap" - to which my reply is "bollocks!". One only has to go back 2 summers to flatly contradict that statement.

Some odds and ends from Australia's BOM:

Driest summer in Perth since 1997/8; Sydney summer a little warmer and drier and very sunny; huge contrast in daily max temp anomalies in NSW for February (up to +3C in north, down to -5C in southwest); most of Aust. very dry in February.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 01/03/2005 21:05

More than probably, I would think. Around central NZ I don't think there was a single day with max temps significantly below the norm. I expect W'gton's record to show one of the warmest Febs. ever.

Yes certainly a warm month, but I doubt that for NZ as a whole, it will end up as warm as the hot February's of 1990 and 1998.[/quote]

Vindication! - TVNZ quotes NIWA's report as saying Feb. was NZ's 8th warmest (that's in 150+ years). Alex 38.7 reading could be highest official one since 1973 (Darfield Jan 2004 had 38.4). Idiot W'gtonian on TV said last 4 summers were bad - bollocks. Just 2 summers ago we had a very good one.

Lots of interesting items in BOM's monthly/seasonal summaries (see Aussie 2005's posts for addresses).

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