heavy rain and severe gales 3-4th April NZ

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Storm Struck
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heavy rain and severe gales 3-4th April NZ

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Heavy rain warnings are showing up for Southland,Westland and the headwaters of Otago as a cold front moves in from the Tasman.
Although these areas are not :evil: the areas that need the rain there could be between 200-300mm of rain in some areas from 5am Saturday morning till 11pm Sunday this wekend.
This could also be followed by squally thunderstorms in the west with heavy rainfalls.
Scatterd falls may also spread east on Sunday about as far north as north Canterbury which is where iam so iam hoping for some rain atleast :o .
N-NW gales may affect many areas in eastern parts of SI and Wellington especially on Sunday.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.
Last edited by Storm Struck on Sun 03/04/2005 00:13, edited 2 times in total.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Not looking too interesting from a Canterbury perspective except if you like NW winds which my wife hates :twisted: :twisted:
Looking interesting for next Thurday, may even put a 3 on it for the time being. :)



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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Not looking too interesting from a Canterbury perspective except if you like NW winds which my wife hates :twisted: :twisted:
Looking interesting for next Thurday, may even put a 3 on it for the time being. :)

JohnGaul
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Cant say thursday looks all that great at this point, west coast will get a good couple of storms sunday, and ak/northland on monday-tuesday
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RWood
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Unread post by RWood »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Not looking too interesting from a Canterbury perspective except if you like NW winds which my wife hates :twisted: :twisted:
Looking interesting for next Thurday, may even put a 3 on it for the time being. :)



JohnGaul
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You hate easterlies, she hates NW - you could try W'gton, and get a new range of winds to hate...ditto for Michael and his SW "gales"!

Personally, after experiencing the polluted skies and mediocre visibility in UK and Europe I'll put up with with NZ winds, notwithstanding the erratic climate(s) we "enjoy".

{I was in Dunedin for a few days one January, looking at the old university spots etc. - a tour bus driver was mindlessly intoning a spiel about the places locals favoured in the summer months - it was an overcast day with 15C and light SW - I felt like yelling "but this IS a summer month!!"}
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Storm Struck
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Wow :o tornadoes for the west coast possible tomorrow with 110kmh+ winds iam guessing many will be formed from waterspouts which come off the sea from severe thunderstorms. Could be intersting on the west coast tomorrow whish i was there :( .
Still could be big NW winds here tomorrow MS is saying 120kmh in some areas so it may be 90-100kmh here inland places will fear the worst i would imagine.
I bet Kay will tell everyone to batten down the hatches tonight.
cheers
JASON TIPPET.
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Unread post by TonyT »

Jasestrm wrote:Wow :o tornadoes for the west coast possible tomorrow with 110kmh+ winds iam guessing many will be formed from waterspouts which come off the sea from severe thunderstorms. Could be intersting on the west coast tomorrow whish i was there :( .
Still could be big NW winds here tomorrow MS is saying 120kmh in some areas so it may be 90-100kmh here inland places will fear the worst i would imagine.
I bet Kay will tell everyone to batten down the hatches tonight.
cheers
JASON TIPPET.
Interesting question Jason, I would have thought that 110kph winds would actually make tornadoes unlikely due the turbulence they create. Doesnt' a tornado need a relatively still atmosphere in order for the vortex to be created and remain complete? Anyone?
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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

TonyT wrote:Interesting question Jason, I would have thought that 110kph winds would actually make tornadoes unlikely due the turbulence they create. Doesnt' a tornado need a relatively still atmosphere in order for the vortex to be created and remain complete? Anyone?
I don't know about tornadoes, but once saw three waterspouts near the shore north of Kaikoura and as I recall it was a reasonably calm day, wind-wise.
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Heavy rain and Gales on way for NZ

Unread post by Aussie2005 »

Found this link which has some explanation as to how tornadoes are formed. http://www.geocities.com/joefurr2/torform.html

Tornado Formation

The Ingredients


To have a tornado you need a thunderstorm. To have a thunderstorm you need three things:
. instability
. an uplifting mechanism
. moisture in the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere

An unstable air mass is warm and moist near the ground and relatively cold and dry in the upper atmosphere. If an air mass is unstable, air that is pushed upward will continue upward.

Lift is the mechanism that pushes the air upward. Sources of lift can be cold fronts, mountains, converging air (as in Florida), or differential heating. The most common of these is differential heating. Differential heating takes place when portions of the earth's surface warm more readily than other nearby areas. These "warm pockets" are less dense then the surrounding air and will then rise.

The final ingredient is moisture. As air rises in a thunderstorm updraft, moisture condenses into small water drops, which form clouds. When the moisture condenses, heat is released into the air, making it warmer and less dense than its surroundings. This lets the updraft continue rising.


The Life of a Thunderstorm

There are three stages in a thunderstorm's life. They are the cumulus stage, mature stage, and dissipating stage.

The cumulus stage is the development stage. During this stage there is only an updraft and no precipitation reaching the ground. As the storm develops, precipitation is produced in the upper parts of the storm. This starts the downdraft.

The mature stage is the height of the storm's strength. During this stage there is both an updraft and downdraft, precipitation, and possible severe weather. As the precipitation spreads throughout the storm the downdraft grows. This is the stage in which tornadoes form.

The dissipating stage is dominated by the downdraft. As the downdraft strengthens, it cuts off the updraft and stops the inflow of moist air. This leaves the storm with nothing else to do but rain itself out.


Thunderstorm Types

The Single Cell Storm

Single cell thunderstorms have lifespans of 20-30 minutes. They are usually not strong enough to produce severe weather. A true single cell storm is actually quite rare.
Photo of a Single Cell Storm
More Information on Single Cell Storms

The Multicell Cluster Storm

This is the most common type pf thunderstorm. It consists of a group of cells, moving as one unit, with each cell in a different phase of the thunderstorm life cycle. The mature cell is usually found at the center. Although each cell may last only 20 minutes, the cluster may last several hours. These can produce heavy rainfall, downbursts, moderate-sized hail, and occasional weak tornadoes.
Photo of a Multicell Cluster Storm
More Information on Multicell Cluster Storms

The Multicell Line Storm or "Squall Line"

This consists of a line of storms with a continuous, well-developed gust front at the leading edge of the line. This line of storms can be solid or it can have gaps. The main threats with these storms are golfball-sized hail, heavy rainfall, and weak tornadoes. However, they are best known for their downbursts.
Photo of a Squall Line
More Information on Squall Lines

The Supercell Storm

This is a highly organized thunderstorm. Although these are rare, they pose a great threat to life and property. This is like a single cell storm in that it has one updraft. However, the supercell updraft is extremely strong. This storm has a rotating updraft, or mesocyclone, that is the key to its ability to produce severe weather. This storm can produce large hail, strong downburst, and strong to violent tornadoes.
Photo of a Supercell
More Information on Supercells


Convective Variables

Research has found that if the environment (uplifting, instability, or moisture) of a storm has changed then the type of storm favored to exist may also change.

The amount of vertical wind shear in a storm's environment is critical in determining the type of storm that will form. Vertical wind shear is defined as a change in wind direction or speed with height. If the vertical wind shear is weak, the multicellular storms with short-lived updrafts will be favored. If the vertical wind shear is stronger than the updraft, then storms with longer-lived updrafts will develop.
Photo of a thunderstorm in an extremely high shear environment

Closely related to the concept of vertical wind shear is veering. Veering is defined as a clockwise turning of the wind direction as we move up through the atmosphere. If there are two layers of clouds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and the direction turns clockwise between the lower and upper layers, then veering is present.

Computer simulations and observational studies have suggested that veering of the low-level wind is instrumental in the production of storm rotation. Once this vertical rotation is established, a mesocyclone can develop which may produce a tornado or other significant severe weather.

The amount of moisture in the air has an effect on storms too. If the amount of moisture is low, then the storms tend to have high bases. If the amount of moisture is high, the storms tend to have low bases. The higher the cloud base, the better the chance for microbursts. The lower the cloud base, the better the chance for flash flood-producing rains.


The Birth of a Tornado

As the mesocyclone strengthens it extends further downwards. At the same time, it is becoming more compact which is causing it to spin faster and faster. If this process continues, then the mesocyclone will reach to the ground, spawning a tornado.
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Re: Heavy rain and Gales on way for NZ

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

Aussie2005 wrote:Found this link which has some explanation as to how tornadoes are formed...
I knew all that stuff of course, but you guys will never learn for yourselves if I just keep giving you the answers all the time.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

TonyT wrote:
Jasestrm wrote:Wow :o tornadoes for the west coast possible tomorrow with 110kmh+ winds iam guessing many will be formed from waterspouts which come off the sea from severe thunderstorms. Could be intersting on the west coast tomorrow whish i was there :( .
Still could be big NW winds here tomorrow MS is saying 120kmh in some areas so it may be 90-100kmh here inland places will fear the worst i would imagine.
I bet Kay will tell everyone to batten down the hatches tonight.
cheers
JASON TIPPET.
Interesting question Jason, I would have thought that 110kph winds would actually make tornadoes unlikely due the turbulence they create. Doesnt' a tornado need a relatively still atmosphere in order for the vortex to be created and remain complete? Anyone?

I thought it had to be reasonably calm for tornodoes to occur :-k
Maybe they are only "mini-tornadoes" with internal speeds of 110km/hr??? :roll:
I haven't checked the MetService yet.
Ask Fijuta Phil, he should know ?

Are you Aaron off to the West Coast for a possible chase with Steven Graham??


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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

typically a good indication of tornadoes is looking at the total total index TTI.

Values of TTI of around 40-45 indicate the potential for thunderstorms. Around 50, severe thunderstorms are possible. Around 55, storms producing tornados are possible, this of course varys with local conditions, height etc

The west coast (greymouth north) as far as I can tell, is only getting around 35-40

*could some please do the sums and tell me i got that right!
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Unread post by spwill »

Strong winds from Cb clouds can be very local.

In USA strong winds and Tornados do occur from the same cloud system
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Unread post by tich »

No stormy weather yet in Chch - glorious late summer day here. Northeasterly is freshening, but it's sunny with temps in the high 20s.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I would have thought that 110kph winds would actually make tornadoes unlikely due the turbulence they create. Doesnt' a tornado need a relatively still atmosphere in order for the vortex to be created and remain complete? Anyone?
There are two different ways in which tornadic phenomena are formed.

Low level vorticity caused by localised wind shear along weak boundaries can lead to the formation of funnel clouds/tornadoes/waterspouts under a developing cumulus/cumulonimbus. Most of these seem to form in light wind situations. F0 rarely F1 damage results.

Tornadogenisis is the other way in which tornadoes develop. The notes Aussie posted cover this. The 'lowlevel jet' is often instrumental in tornadogenisis in the midwest. Surface winds of 25 to 40kts, stronger off the surface, create the high levels of vorticity required for a mesocyclone to develop. F0-F5

The Taranaki Tornado last August occured with the 3000ft at 50kts. The surface wind at New Plymouth ( just down the road from Motonui) was 30kts.
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Unread post by tich »

Wow tornadoes for the west coast possible tomorrow with 110kmh+ winds iam guessing many will be formed from waterspouts which come off the sea from severe thunderstorms. Could be intersting on the west coast tomorrow whish i was there
I can't recall MetService ever issuing a warning about possible tornadoes before.
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Unread post by TonyT »

NZstorm wrote: The Taranaki Tornado last August occured with the 3000ft at 50kts. The surface wind at New Plymouth ( just down the road from Motonui) was 30kts.
Ok, thats the proof we needed then! Thanks.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

tich wrote:No stormy weather yet in Chch - glorious late summer day here. Northeasterly is freshening, but it's sunny with temps in the high 20s.
Didnt no any stormy weather was coming!! although I have forecasted a possible isolated shower later tonight
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Unread post by NZstorm »

The classic situation in NZ for damaging tornadoes is very cold air moving into the Tasman sea (500mb temp usually lower than -25C) and warm moist air moving in from the north(around a trough). Along a frontal zone the warm humid air undercuts the very cold upper. Surface winds are from the north backing into the west with increasing height. And wind velocities are quite strong 25kts plus from 1000ft up. Hence both deep instability and significant wind shear combine.

99% of damaing tornadoes in NZ occur in the west of the country from Northland to Westland. :)
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Unread post by tich »

Didnt no any stormy weather was coming!! although I have forecasted a possible isolated shower later tonight
I think high winds count as stormy weather, not just rain (which will probably be no more than spitting stuff in a Chch norwester).
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Unread post by Thunder »

Tomorrow the 3000ft winds are predicted to be up to 55 knots on the west coast. It will be interesting when the change comes through as that'll provide some turning in the atmosphere. But yeah, shear is cetainly going to be strong in the lower levels right up.

I see good negative vertical velocities with the change on the west coast, quite negative infact. Instability doesn't look big with the atmosphere tomorrow being conditionally unstable, however.......the change combined with the mountains should be enough to force things upwards.

I don't see quite cold air moving in until 4am in the morning though.

I've had a look at past data on when a few tornadoes have occured on the coast. They have in common, strong wind shear and quite cold upper air (-20 to -27 at 500mb). The wind shear depicted on the models didn't show much if any turning (no persevable fronts could be seen), and despite having strong wind shear at upper levels the shear nearer the surface wasn't as strong. It was still strongish but only around 25knots to 30 knots v's our up to 55knts we've got tomorrow. Vertical velocities were not that negative unlike tomorrow where we've got quite strong negtive vertical velocities.

So, we haven't got as cold upper air but we have a front (plus mountains) with quite strong wind shear at the surface. Perhaps these things at the surface could conteract our not as cold upper air to still provide some entertainment??

I think the stong wind thing is associated with winds form the storms themselves, not a general wind flow. The strongly -VV's indicate that what goes up fast could come down fast I'm guessing, perhaps the reason for strong winds?

TT aren't as good but up to 45/49 which is marginal.

Out of all this gibberish I deduct the atmosphere isn't as unstable as I'd like but the mountains, plus shear, and the front could have an interesting affect on things, as showen by the -VV's. If we had even colder upper air hooray! But I think we have enough for some afternoon storms over there tomorrow.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

latest update from metservice:

Severe Convection/ Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: 12:00 am 7 Mar 2005 NZDT
Issued at: 9:23 am 6 Mar 2005 NZDT

A front moving up through Fiordland this morning will become very active through the period. It will move through Westland this afternoon and lie over the northwest Nelson ranges by midnight tonight. We expect that embedded thunderstorms near the front could well be severe,with localised very heavy bursts of rainfall up to 40mm/hr, locally strong wind gusts over 110km/hr and the continued risk of a tornado that could cause some local damage.

Then, during the evening, temperatures aloft over the lower South Island will cool markedly allowing showers and a few thunderstorms with small hail to develop.These will affect southern Westland, Fiordland, Southland and eastern Otago by midnight.

Elsewhere over the country,no thunderstorms or significant convection is expected.
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Unread post by tich »

Gusty northwesterlies have begun in central Chch in the last few minutes. Already 28C (Jeff's Station) - could reach 30C if it stays sunny.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yes 29C out here tich and that N-NW wind is slowly picking up as well iam reading it at about 45kmh at the moment with the odd gust of 50kmh on my windometre I neva know how accurate it is though.
The radio forecast I heard this mornig suggested that the N-NW winds could get up to 110kmh in the east and about 130kmh in some inland places this afternoon/evening. :shock: :D .
Rain is also forecast so iam guessing as the cold front comes in and squezzes the isobars together it may create a windstorm then followed by scatterd rain from the west which has happend many times before in damaging windstorms.
I see Otago,Southland could be getting some TS this evening as the windflow turns SW and the tornadoes are still in force as 03stormchaser explained.
Cheers here's to a day of holding on to your hats.
JASON TIPPET.
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Unread post by RWood »

Jasestrm wrote:Cheers here's to a day of holding on to your hats.
JASON TIPPET.
Some hefty gusts here, but nothing out of the ordinary so far. Fast-moving low ragged cloud as typically in these situations with a few glimpses of brighter sky.
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Unread post by RWood »

Jasestrm wrote:Cheers here's to a day of holding on to your hats.
JASON TIPPET.
Some hefty gusts here, but nothing out of the ordinary so far. Fast-moving low ragged cloud as typically in these situations with a few glimpses of brighter sky.