End of week (not so) bitterly cold outbreak

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 08/07/2003 18:52

The models indicate another cold oubreak at the end of this week, but nothing as severe as the last one. But still a pretty chilly blast, with snow on the North Island high country and to low levels (through probably not sea-level) in the South Island. A possible low forming to the east of the North Island (ECMWF) could complicate things.

Certainly more significant than today's non-event southerly, which I doubt brought anything to Chch and only some shower activity to Banks Peninsula, with no extra snow, at least not below 500 metres. (patchy snow is still lying around parts of Chch and is quite low on peninsula hills)

Ben
Christchurch

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 08/07/2003 20:42

Yes Ben, I think the deepening of the trough over the north will be the most significant weather occurance with the potential for heavy precip in the NE. Volcanic plateau may just catch a heavy snowfall from this.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 08/07/2003 21:57

I imagine that the snow cover left over from the weekend falls might have the effect of keeping NZ cold and leading to more snowfalls when moist air moves onto the country, even if from milder airmasses. (remember July 1995 - freak snowfall around Taupo when a front moved in from the northwest not long after a very cold southerly outbreak) So snow might fall to lower levels than would normally occur in whatever system crosses NZ. I'm assuming that by later in the week there would still be a fair amount of snow in (at least the higher areas) that were affected by the weekend blast, considering how heavy the falls were.

Ben
Christchurch

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Tue 08/07/2003 23:50

Ben/Steve,

Can you please tell me where to find the weather models that you discussed in this thread.

Thanks

Gregg

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 09/07/2003 18:29

Good point Tich,I left snow covered Ashburton at 12.30 at a chiily 4 degrees,arrived in Ch Ch 45 minutes later to a balmy 12 degrees.
Same on the way home Ch Ch 11 at 4.30 arrived in Ashburton 3 degrees.
With no sunshine for the past two days and with a 7.1 deg frost last night the snow seems to be here for a while longer.
Cheers.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 09/07/2003 22:06

Dosen't look like much will happen now, unfortunately, owing to annoying high pressure areas pushing in!

JohnGaul
NZTS[/color][/size][/size]

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 09/07/2003 22:22

Gregg heres some stuff here just click on the tabs

http://www.metvuw.com/

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 10/07/2003 07:55

There is no model better than the good old ecmwf Greg. This is the worlds most consistently performing and respecting weather forecast model.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... ots!latest!/

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 10/07/2003 17:25

Its very hard to get a good handle on this event, the models have been changing their minds all week and still are. There is the potential for snow to low levels again in both South and North Islands, (not as low as last week, but low enough to be a nuisance/joy depending on your point of view), but only a potential, I wouldnt call it likely. Also, a potential for some heavy falls, especially at higher levels in the North Island on Saturday, but again only potential, not likelihood.

A lot will depend on the movement and development of at least one depression centre, probably two or three, east of the country tomorrow and Saturday, and how quickly the ridge comes onto the South Island and how intense it becomes. Watch the satpix and see how it unfolds

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 11/07/2003 14:45

Cold, wet day here in Chch - only about 4-5C. But certainly not as cold as last Friday. I see a number of high country roads in the South Island high country were closed by snow earlier today, but have now reopened, so conditions must've eased inland. But no easing of the weather here so far.

Will be interesting to see how this cold outbreak affects the North Island - it shouldn't compare to last weekend's icy blast, but the unstable nature of the system could still result in a heavy snow dump in the central high country, while the cold air should push up to the north of the North Island without slacking off, while still retaining moisture as it arrives. Hence northerners could get some good (or nasty, depending on your point of view) thunder and hail.

Ben
Christchurch

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Fri 11/07/2003 15:58

It has been a cold and wet day in Ashburton as well,19mm of rain I recorded overnight which has melted the majority of the snow.
Temperature was only 3.5 at 6.30 this morning with showers of sleet and then slowly climbed to around 5.5 for the rest of the day.
Methven had a light snowfall overnight.
Currently 5.6 degrees,passing showers,starting to clear further inland.
Cheers.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 12/07/2003 22:32

The cold southerly sems to be virtually over now - I heard there were snow showers on the North Island high country, but no roads were closed, not even the Desert Road, so it couldn't have been a heavy dumping.

Cleared up in Chch early this morning for a sunny day. But clear skies, cold daytime temperature (about 9C max) and little wind... Could be another record breaker by tomorrow morning. (already frosty in the city)

Ben
Christchurch